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The monthly Coresight Research US Retail Sales Outlook series tracks several major macroeconomic indicators and their likely effect on US retail sales. In this report, we analyze the latest available data as of June 19, 2025.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Data in this research report include:

Our projections for retail sales growth by month for the next 12 months
Proprietary survey data on consumer sentiment in the US
US actual retail sales versus model-predicted sales
US unemployment rate and labor force participation rate
US average hourly wages for all private-sector employees
US annualized real disposable income per capita

Other relevant research:

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
All our coverage of tariffs
The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.

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On June 23, 2025, NextGen 2025: Retail, Real Estate + the New Consumer brought together a curated mix of leaders and innovators to dive into the shifts reshaping how we build, operate and connect. The event agenda put a sharp focus on AI (artificial intelligence), the evolving consumer and the spaces where commerce comes to life.

Which key themes emerged, and what did panelists think of the event? This free infographic offers highlights from the Coresight Research conference.

Thank you to NextGen 2025’s platinum sponsor, IBM, and to gold sponsors Intel, Cimulate AI and The Wires.

Other relevant research:

Premium subscribers can access comprehensive insights from the event in our in-depth report, Shaping What’s Next in Retail—Physical Retail, AI, Retail Media: Insights from NextGen 2025, a Coresight Research Conference
Visit the Coresight Research Retail Technology Hub to explore reports, data and competitive landscapes on technology.

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Reasons to Read

On June 23, 2025, the Coresight Research NextGen 2025: Retail, Real Estate & the New Consumer conference brought together a curated mix of leaders and innovators to dive into the shifts reshaping how we build, operate and connect. The event agenda put a sharp focus on AI (artificial intelligence), the evolving consumer and the spaces where commerce comes to life.

Thank you to NextGen 2025’s platinum sponsor, IBM, and to gold sponsors Intel, Cimulate AI and The Wires.

So, what is shaping the future of retail, real estate and the consumer experience? This comprehensive report presents critical insights and takeaways from NextGen 2025, spanning five key themes. Discover how AI, retail media and design are redefining commerce—from the store to the supply chain.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

How are malls and physical stores transforming into tech-enabled, experience-driven hubs of community and commerce?
In what ways is AI driving deep structural change in retail?
What defines truly human-centric personalization, and how are brands using AI to build emotional relevance?
Why is retail media becoming a critical revenue stream, and what’s next for the channel?
How are brands rethinking supply chains for agility in today’s shifting landscape?

Joining Deborah Weinswig, CEO and Founder of Coresight Research, in our incredible lineup of 40 speakers were experts from the following companies (and many more): American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), Antler, Burlington Stores, Cimulate AI, David Yurman, Glasshouse Fragrances, Guess?, IBM, IAMBIC, Intel Corporation, Kim’C Market, Korins Studio, L’Oréal, LUUM, NACDS, NextRivet, Prosper Brands, Rich HairCare, Samsung, Shoptalk, The Taubman Company

Other relevant research:

Highlights from NextGen 2025: Retail, Real Estate & the New Consumer—Infographic
The Power of First-Party Data: Five Ways To Maximize Business Success
Unlocking Success: The Pathway to Profitability for US Brands and Retailers
Retail 2025: 10 Trends Shaping the Retail Media Market
Retail 2025: 10 Trends in Retail Technology
Transforming Beauty Retail: AI Across the Value Chain, from Innovation to Personalization
Visit the Coresight Research Retail Technology Hub to explore reports, data and competitive landscapes on technology.

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On June 23, 2025, the NextGen 2025: Retail, Real Estate + the New Consumer conference will bring together a curated mix of leaders and innovators to dive into the shifts reshaping how we build, operate and connect. This is the starting point for bold ideas, real conversations and a clear view of what’s next.

Creative Minds. Transformers. Disruptors. Together, we are shaping the future of retail, real estate and the consumer experience.

Our agenda puts a sharp focus on AI (artificial intelligence), the evolving consumer and the spaces where commerce comes to life. Welcome to the spark that starts change.

Joining Deborah Weinswig, CEO and Founder of Coresight Research, in our incredible speaker lineup are experts from the following companies (and more): American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), David Yurman, Dogwood Brands, Guess?, L’Oréal, Samsung, The Taubman Company

Thank you to NextGen 2025’s platinum sponsor, IBM, and to gold sponsors Intel, Cimulate AI and The Wires.

Other relevant research:

The Power of First-Party Data: Five Ways To Maximize Business Success
Unlocking Success: The Pathway to Profitability for US Brands and Retailers
Retail 2025: 10 Trends Shaping the Retail Media Market
Retail 2025: 10 Trends in Retail Technology
Transforming Beauty Retail: AI Across the Value Chain, from Innovation to Personalization
Visit the Coresight Research Retail Technology Hub to explore reports, data and competitive landscapes on technology.

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Reasons to Read

AI (artificial intelligence) is transforming the beauty industry from a trend-based, reactive sector into a proactive sector. The convergence of beauty technology—including AI and advanced data capabilities—is reshaping product innovation, manufacturing, marketing strategies and loyalty building.

How is AI revolutionizing supply chain operations to support cost efficiency and sustainability in beauty retail?
How are leading beauty brands using AI to power hyper-personalized marketing, loyalty programs and content creation at scale?
What role does AI play in enabling seamless omnichannel retail strategies and dynamic, predictive e-commerce experiences?
How is AI redefining post-purchase experiences and loyalty programs to deliver more emotionally resonant, data-driven customer engagement?

Uncover the answers to these questions and more in this report, which delineates the “B.E.A.U.T.Y.” of AI’s value and use cases in the beauty industry, from building new products to providing better consumer experiences.

Data in this research report include:

US beauty products market size and year-over-year growth, 2020–2029E

Companies mentioned in this report include: The Estée Lauder Companies, L’Oréal, Ulta Beauty, Unilever

Other relevant research:

More reports on beauty retailing and AI in retail

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Welcome to Analyst Corner! Every Sunday, a member of the Coresight Research team discusses upcoming or recent research and their thoughts on interesting topics in their area of expertise.

This week, Anand Kumar, Managing Director of Retail Research, presents three consumer-focused predictions that will define retail’s trajectory in the second half of 2025, from stagflation to private-label expansion.

We also highlight our key research from the past week and upcoming reports to look out for, so you don’t miss out.

For a deeper dive, premium subscribers should read our new report outlining all 10 of our forward-looking predictions and the macro trends behind them.

Other relevant research:

US Retail and Consumer Outlook: June 2025
Tariffs + Consumer Sentiment: A Timeline, 2025
Our Retail 2025 series of outlook reports
Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographics
The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.
Read previous Analyst Corner reports, including last week’s report, which discusses new store openings by IKEA.

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Our Three Data Points We’re Watching This Week series spotlights key data points from our research.

Discover key data points we are watching in week 25 of 2025. This week, we highlight predictive US retail data, from US consumers’ Amazon Prime Day shopping plans and personal financial expectations to our proprietary sales projection for July 2025.

Dive into the research behind these data points:

Amazon Prime Day 2025: Preview—Five Essential Insights on Consumers’ Shopping Plans
Financial Confidence Improves but Tariffs and Inflation Impact Shopping Behavior: US Consumer Survey Insights
Look out for our upcoming US Retail Sales Outlook report for new, proprietary projections

Other relevant research:

The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.
All graphics in the Three Data Points series

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Reasons to Read

Our Weekly UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker series reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies in the UK. This week, we highlight store opening and closure news at Debenhams, PMT, Poundland and T.M.Lewin, among others, as well as the announcement of a new Chief Customer Officer at John Lewis Partnership.

This report presents data up to week 25 of 2025, ended June 20, 2025.

Data in this research report include:

Week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the UK—2025 vs. 2024
Major UK store closures and openings—2025 and 2024

Companies mentioned in this report include: Crocs, Frasers Group, PMT, Poundland, Søstrene Grene, T.M.Lewin, White Stuff

Other relevant research:

The full collection of Store Tracker reports, including our US-focused series
The US and UK Store Tracker Databank is the definitive resource for information on store openings and closures by sector in the US and UK retail industries.
The Retail Bankruptcies Databank details bankruptcies of US and UK retail companies, restaurants and gyms since March 2020.

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Our Weekly US Store Openings and Closures Tracker series reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies in the US.

This week, we highlight the latest store opening and closure announcements from Ashley, At Home, IKEA and Wayfair, among others, as well as the announcement of a new Executive Chairman at Vera Bradley.

This report presents data up to week 25 of 2025, ended June 20, 2025.

Data in this research report include:

Week-by-week comparisons of announced store closures and openings in the US—2025 vs. 2024
Major US store closures and openings—2025 and 2024
Major US retail bankruptcies—2025 and 2024

Companies mentioned in this report include: At Home, Ashley, IKEA, J.Jill, Lovisa, Vera Bradley

Other relevant research:

The full collection of Store Tracker reports, including our UK-focused series
The US and UK Store Tracker Databank is the definitive resource for information on store openings and closures by sector in the US and UK retail industries.
The Retail Bankruptcies Databank details bankruptcies of US and UK retail companies, restaurants and gyms since March 2020.

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Reasons to Read

The Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series from Coresight Research takes a regular temperature check on US consumer sentiment in the context of shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.

Data in this infographic are proprietary survey findings on:

US consumers’ expectations for the economy overall and for their own personal financial situation over the next 12 months
Sentiment trends by income (selected insights)

This week, we point to improvement in consumers’ financial outlook, with a positive turn among middle-income consumers. The latest data in this infographic are from our survey conducted on June 9, 2025.

Dive into the research behind this infographic: Financial Confidence Improves but Tariffs and Inflation Impact Shopping Behavior: US Consumer Survey Insights

Other relevant research:

All Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographics (The series launched in early March 2025.)
Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.

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As part of the Coresight Research Head-to-Head series, we compare Kering and LVMH (LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton), the two leading houses in the global luxury sector.

Delve into key insights on these companies’ revenues, markets of operation, digital strategies and more to understand how these luxury giants are navigating economic headwinds—and which is best positioned to win in 2025.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

How are Kering and LVMH performing financially, and what do their revenue trajectories signal about their resiliency in a shifting global economy?
Which global markets are driving or hindering growth for each company, and how are they responding to China’s luxury slowdown?
How are digital strategies—including AI (artificial intelligence)-powered tools—shaping customer engagement and operational efficiency for both companies?
What do recent e-commerce trends reveal about luxury shoppers’ shifting preferences?
How are Kering and LVMH investing in AI and GenAI (generative AI), and what role do these technologies play in product development and customer experience?
Which innovation initiatives and startup partnerships are fueling long-term competitiveness?
What does each company’s social media footprint reveal about consumer engagement and brand strength across platforms?

Data in this research report include:

Global luxury market, size and year-over-year growth, 2021–2029E
Revenues for Kering and LVMH, in total and by geography, 2019–2024
Instagram followers for Kering and LVMH, 2025

Companies mentioned in this report include: Bambuser, FancyTech, Kering, LVMH

Other relevant research:

Global Luxury—Retail 2025 Sector Outlook: A Year of Recovery, with Soft Luxury and China Gaining Share
Market Navigator: Global Luxury Retailing—Ultra Luxe and the China Market Stand Out as High-End Hitters
The High-Tech High End: Solutions Elevating Supply Chain and Operations in Luxury Retailing
Luxury Retailing: Home and Away—Three Learnings for Growth Across Global Markets
Visit the Coresight Research Fashion and Luxury Hub to explore sector data, reports and company profiles.

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On June 17, 2025, the US government announced that it will extend the deadline for TikTok to divest its US assets (which was set for June 19, 2025) by another 90 days—the third deadline extension to be granted so far.

What would a TikTok ban mean for the social media landscape in the US? We analyze proprietary US consumer survey findings to discuss the implications of TikTok’s uncertainty for other social media platforms as well as brands and advertisers.

Analysis in this report was first published on March 7, 2025, but remains relevant as TikTok’s future in the US is still in doubt. We have updated the report to reflect our latest US consumer survey findings as of mid-June 2025.

Data in this research report include:

TikTok Shop’s global GMV and year-over-year growth, 2021–2025E
Coresight Research survey findings:
- Platforms that TikTok users use more frequently than TikTok and why; changes in social media usage in the case of TikTok’s ban; purchased categories on TikTok; likelihood of continued TikTok use if no ban is enacted
- US consumers’ view on how social media platforms will evolve in the next five years, from AI (artificial intelligence) functions to privacy features

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Meta (Facebook, Instagram), Microsoft, Oracle, Pinterest, Snapchat, TikTok, X, YouTube

Other relevant research:

Amazon Bids to Acquire TikTok—What It Means for US E-Commerce
Social commerce-focused US consumer survey findings: High-Income Consumers’ Financial Sentiment Reaches New Peak; Facebook Slumps in Social Commerce: US Consumer Survey Insights
TikTok Shop: How Brands, Merchants and Creators Can Sell Products Directly on the Social Platform
The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.

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We review recent quarterly earnings for companies in the Coresight 100, our focus list of retailers and brand owners, covering revenues, earnings per share and comps, and considering consensus estimates and year-over-year changes. In this report we cover the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), in which more than half the covered companies posted positive year-over-year sales growth rates.

We first published this report on May 1, 2025, and updated its content—adding more companies—on a weekly basis as the earnings season progressed. The final update, wrapping up this season’s coverage, published on June 18, 2025.

Data in this report include:

Quarterly data from companies, including gross margins and sales data by brand (where applicable), channel and geography

Companies mentioned in this report include: Adidas, Albertsons, Alibaba, Amazon, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, The Coca-Cola Company, Costco Wholesale, CVS Health, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, eBay, Foot Locker, The Home Depot, Kohl’s, L’Oréal, Lowe’s, Lululemon Athletica, LVMH, Macy’s, NIKE, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Ralph Lauren, Ross Stores, Skechers, Tapestry, Target, The TJX Companies, Ulta Beauty, Under Armour, Urban Outfitters, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Walmart

Other relevant research:

Explore all our Earnings Insights reports, including quarterly wrap-ups.
The Coresight 100 list
The Corporate and Financial Developments Databank includes details of management changes, financial guidance updates and capital raised by major retail companies.

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The Coresight Research weekly US Consumer Survey Insights series takes a regular temperature check on US consumers’ behaviors and sentiment, based on exclusive proprietary survey data.

This week, we point to improvement in consumers’ financial outlook, driven by high- and middle-income consumers. In addition to our usual weekly findings on consumer sentiment, activities and shopping patterns, we discuss how shoppers perceive and are responding to tariffs and inflation, with headline findings on consumer pessimism about tariffs and the prevalence of trading down as an inflation-combating strategy.

The latest data in this report are from our survey conducted on June 9, 2025.

Data in this research report are our latest proprietary survey findings on:

Consumers’ expectations for the economy overall and for their personal financial situation
Consumers’ perceptions of tariffs (including net pessimism, concerns and perceived benefits), and the impacts of tariffs on shopping behavior
Consumers’ perceptions of inflation, and its impact on grocery and nongrocery spending
Where consumers have bought food and nonfood products from in the last two weeks
What consumers have bought in-store and online in the last two weeks
Activities that consumers have done in the past two weeks

Companies mentioned in this research report include: Aldi, Amazon, Costco, Dollar General, Kroger, Target, Walmart

Other relevant research:

Tariffs + Consumer Sentiment: A Timeline, 2025
All our coverage of tariffs and macroeconomics
Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.
Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.

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In May 2025, US retail sales (excluding gasoline and automobile sales) increased by nearly 4%, representing a deceleration from the previous month. Using data from the US Census Bureau, we analyze US retail sales in May 2025, in total and by sector.

Data in this research report are:

Year-over-year changes in US total retail sales (excluding gasoline and automobiles), May 2024–May 2025
Year-over-year changes in retail sales by sector, April and May 2025

Other relevant research:

US Retail and Consumer Outlook: June 2025
US Retail in the Rest of 2025: Normalized Demand and Leaner Inventories Ahead of a High-Stakes Holiday Season
Retail Under Pressure: How Will Tariffs Disrupt the Back-to-School and Holiday Seasons?
Our monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
All our coverage of macroeconomics and tariffs
The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.

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