Reasons to Read

Understand the resilience of US retail sales amid weakening underlying consumer fundamentals. Explore proprietary, machine-learning-driven projections as momentum softens amid rising inflation, declining savings and uneven demand trends heading into late 2026 and early 2027.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How is US retail sales growth expected to evolve after its midyear peak in June, and what does the projected slowdown signal for late 2026 and early 2027?
  • What is driving the current resilience in retail sales, and to what extent are temporary supports—such as tax refunds—masking underlying weakness in consumer demand?
  • How are inflation, declining savings and weakening real incomes reshaping consumer spending capacity, and what risks do these trends pose to future growth?
  • What explains the growing divergence between headline retail strength and weakening consumer fundamentals, and how is this reflected in the declining Retail Outlook Score?
  • How are elevated energy costs, softening housing activity and persistently weak sentiment influencing discretionary spending and overall retail performance?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

  • Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
  • All our coverage of tariffs
  • The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
  • The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.
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Reasons to Read

Artificial intelligence is advancing across compute, power, models, policy, retail adoption and labor at once. Discover how Coresight Research’s AI IMPACT Framework distills this fast-moving news flow into actionable intelligence across six pillars.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How are funding, compute and energy turning AI into an infrastructure battlefield?
  • How are frontier models becoming autonomous co-workers?
  • How are open-weight models reshaping pricing and competitive advantage?
  • Why are regulators and copyright disputes becoming central to AI strategy?
  • What does AI-assisted shopping adoption signal for agentic commerce and retailers?

Data in this research report include: AI funding rounds and valuations; compute, energy and data-center deals; frontier and open-weight model timelines; regulatory and copyright developments; US agentic commerce market-size estimates; consumer GenAI shopping adoption; retailer AI assistant launches; and AI-linked layoffs.

Companies mentioned in this report include: OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA, DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, Ace Hardware, Ulta Beauty, Tesco and HSBC.

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Reasons to Read

We kick off our US Back to School 2026 series of reports by diving into proprietary survey findings on US consumers’ spending expectations for the BTS (back-to-school) season.

Read this report to find out!

  • When will consumers start shopping for BTS, and how much will they spend?
  • How is inflation impacting BTS 2026 shopping behavior?
  • In which categories are consumers willing to shop resale?

Data in this research report include:

  • When consumers will shop for BTS, 2026 vs. 2025
  • How much consumers expect to spend on BTS per child
  • How much consumers expect to spend on BTS compared to 2024—overall (in dollar and volume terms) and breakdowns by income, geography and school level
  • The impacts of inflation and tariffs on BTS shopping
  • Attitudes to BTS shopping—including spending on online learning tools, budget changes and openness to resale

Other relevant research:

The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.

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Reasons to Read

Discover which low-price e-commerce model is best positioned to win as de minimis exemptions disappear and global trade rules tighten.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How has the removal of de minimis treatment become the defining test for Temu, Shein and Amazon Haul?
  • Why is Shein’s pricing advantage built on manufacturing rather than shipping economics?
  • Can Temu’s subsidy-driven model remain competitive as costs rise and regulatory pressures increase?
  • What role does Amazon Haul play within Amazon’s broader marketplace ecosystem?
  • What do the platforms’ responses to de minimis removal reveal about their long-term resilience?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Amazon Haul, Temu, PDD Holdings, Shein, Everlane, Missguided and Forever 21.

Data in this report include: Consumer spending fragmentation across alternative retail channels; business model and pricing comparisons for Shein, Temu and Amazon Haul; estimated Shein global and US revenue; PDD Holdings revenue growth versus net income trends; estimated Temu global and US GMV; de minimis policy changes across major markets.

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Reasons to Read

Discover how US consumers are reacting to shifting economic conditions, Iran conflict and inflation pressures.

Read this report to discover answer to these questions:

  • How is consumer sentiment diverging across income groups—and what does this mean for premium versus value retail performance?
  • How are higher gasoline prices impacting consumer budgets and driving spending cutbacks?
  • Which categories are seeing the greatest reductions in spending—and what does this signal for discretionary vs. essential retail?

Data in this research report include: Consumer sentiment by income and time; impact of gasoline prices on spending behavio; and retailer and category-level shopping data.

Other relevant research:  

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Reasons to Read

Discover how AI, social commerce and rapid delivery are transforming beauty e-commerce into the industry’s primary growth engine.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • Why is beauty e-commerce growing significantly faster than the total US beauty market?
  • How are AI-powered personalization and faster delivery making online beauty shopping more attractive?
  • Why is social commerce becoming a dominant sales driver for beauty brands?
  • How are Gen Z and younger consumers reshaping digital beauty spending habits?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Ulta Beauty, Amazon, Bath & Body Works, Estée Lauder, MAC Cosmetics, Clinique, Dr. Jart+, TikTok Shop.

Data in this report include: US beauty e-commerce versus total sales growth trends; online versus in-store beauty order values; AI-driven conversion and repeat purchase; TikTok Shop beauty sales and spending growth.

Related Reports:

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Reasons to Read

Each Analyst Corner features highlights and insights from the respective week’s “Report of the Week”—our featured must-read research report. This week, our featured report was Amazon Apparel US Consumer Survey 2026: Growth Opportunities in Value, AI and Omnichannel Retail

Now in its ninth year, the annual Amazon Apparel US Consumer Survey from Coresight Research tracks evolving consumer behaviors on Amazon.com across the US apparel and footwear category. This year, we draw insights from 2,006 online shoppers and our nine-year proprietary data set, offering a comprehensive, compelling view of Amazon’s dominance in fashion e-commerce and the key factors driving its growth in 2026 and beyond.

Other relevant research:

Reasons to Read

Now in its ninth year, the annual Amazon apparel US consumer survey from Coresight Research identifies and analyzes evolving consumer behaviors on Amazon.com across the apparel and footwear category. This year, we draw insights from 2,006 online shoppers and our nine-year proprietary data set, offering a comprehensive, compelling view of Amazon’s dominance in fashion e-commerce and the key factors driving its growth in 2026 and beyond.

This slide deck was presented on our Premium Subscriber Call on June 19, 2026.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

This report offers a detailed analysis of US retail sales performance in May 2026, breaking down key trends by sector and providing insights into inflation trends affecting the market.

Read this report to find answers to these questions:

  • What were the year-over-year changes in total retail sales (excluding gasoline and automobiles) between May 2025 and May 2026?
  • How did retail sales perform across different sectors in March 2026 and May 2026?
  • What is the estimated retail-only inflation trends from September 2025 to May 2026?

Other relevant research:

  • Our monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
  • Complementing our monthly reports, the Coresight Research US Retail Sales Databank brings together retail sales data to help you understand the scale and trajectory of US retail.
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Reasons to Read

Discover the latest trends in UK retail store openings and closures for 2026, and gain insights into the evolving market landscape.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How many store closures and openings have UK retailers announced year to date in 2026, and how do these totals compare with the same period in 2025?
  • Which retailers are driving the latest changes in our 2026 major UK store closures and openings tracker?
  • How do full-year 2025 store closures and openings compare with 2026 year-to-date trends?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Card Factory, LEGO, Lindt, Office and Salomon

Data in this report include: week-by-week comparisons of UK store closures and openings for 2026 and 2025; rankings of major retailers by total store closures; rankings of major retailers by total store openings; tabulated confirmed versus planned store activity by retailer and sector.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

Uncover the latest shifts in the retail landscape and stay ahead of key trends that impact store openings, closures, and the broader consumer market.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • What are the top store openings and closures in the US for 2026 so far?
  • Which retailers are expanding in 2026, and which brands are downsizing?
  • How do store closures and openings compare between 2025 and 2026 in key retail sectors?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Cole Haan, Crate & Barrel, Dunham’s Sports, J.Jill, James Avery Artisan Jewelry, Kendra Scott, Levi’s, Muji, Save A Lot, Studs, Timberland, Vallarta Supermarket, Walmart and West Marine

Data in this report include: weekly totals of US store closures and openings for 2026 and 2025; retailer-level breakdowns of announced versus confirmed closures/openings; total store counts by retailer; total US retail bankruptcies year to date.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

Discover how US consumers really shop across generations—and why younger shoppers buy broadly while older shoppers may buy more deeply. Driven by more than 5,600 surveys, we dive into generational shopping behaviors and attitudes.

  • Why is breadth the defining commercial characteristic of young US consumers?
  • How does Gen Z combine dollar stores, premium grocers, malls and Temu in the same shopping week?
  • In which established e-commerce categories do older consumers show higher online penetration?
  • Why might older consumers offer higher value per occasion, despite being harder to activate?
  • How do generational differences in financial sentiment, wellness, experiences and sustainability challenge conventional retail assumptions?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Albertsons, Aldi, Amazon, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, eBay, Family Dollar, Kohl’s, Kroger, Macy’s, Publix, Sam’s Club, Target, Temu, TJ Maxx/Marshalls/HomeGoods, Trader Joe’s, Walmart and Whole Foods Market.

Data in this report include: US consumer purchase occasions, retailer shopping activity, activity participation, online share of purchases by category and generation, generational attitudes to saving money, wellness, sustainability, experiences and spending priorities.

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Reasons to Read

Discover the latest data-driven insights into CPG e-commerce acceleration, category performance and the growing divergence between essential and discretionary spending.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • What is driving continued growth in the US CPG market, and how much of this expansion is supported by pricing and mix rather than true volume growth?
  • How is the balance between essential and discretionary categories shifting, and why are food and beverages emerging as the primary engine of growth?
  • Which CPG categories and subcategories are outperforming, particularly in e-commerce—and what is driving standout growth in these areas?
  • How are consumer trade-down behavior and affordability pressures impacting discretionary categories, including health & beauty and general merchandise?
  • What role are inflation, energy costs and supply chain pressures playing in shaping CPG pricing and demand dynamics, and how sustainable is current growth?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Colgate-Palmolive, Procter & Gamble, TikTok, Ulta Beauty, PepsiCo, Danone, Kimberly-Clark.

Data in this report include: Year-over-year growth rates for CPG e-commerce and in-store sales; Breakdown of CPG sales growth by department; Insights into food & beverage market growth and beauty category growth.

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

  • Understand how value-focused consumer behavior could shape Prime Day 2026 spending patterns.
  • Discover which product categories are expected to attract the strongest consumer interest during the event.
  • Learn why actual Prime Day purchases often differ from shoppers’ pre-event purchase intentions.
  • Explore how Prime Day’s earlier June timing could influence seasonal and back-to-school shopping activity.
  • Analyze how competing retailers are aligning promotional events around Prime Day to capture mid-year demand.
  • Evaluate Prime Day’s growing role in shaping consumer spending and promotional activity across the retail sector.

Data in this research report include:

  • Consumer expectations for Prime Day 2026 shopping and spending
  • Product categories consumers expect to purchase during Prime Day
  • Planned spending compared to Prime Day 2025
  • Back-to-school purchase intentions related to Prime Day
  • Consumer browsing and purchasing expectations during Prime Day
  • Amazon Prime Day timing, promotional strategy and category focus
  • Competitive promotional activity by major retailers during the Prime Day period

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Walmart, Target

Other relevant research:

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Reasons to Read

Discover how agentic commerce is reshaping the retail landscape by using AI agents for product discovery, evaluation, and purchase. Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

  • How is AI-driven shopping transforming traditional retail processes into seamless, autonomous transactions?
  • What are the immediate benefits of agentic commerce, including increased conversion rates and improved personalization?
  • How can retailers integrate their products into AI-driven ecosystems to remain visible to consumers?
  • What are the strategic steps for implementing agentic commerce, from foundational product visibility to advanced AI-powered shopping agents?
  • What challenges and opportunities are presented by the shift to agentic commerce, and how can retailers prepare?

Data in this research report include/are: Growth projections for the agentic commerce market; insights into adoption rates of AI technologies; conversion data from early AI agent implementations; strategic frameworks for retailer adoption.

Companies mentioned in this report include/are: Amazon, Rezolve.ai, Rebag, Walmart, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and more.

Other relevant research:

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