Executive Summary

  • Lojas Americanas reported 4Q15 net revenues of R$5.8 billion, up 6.3% from 4Q14 but below the consensus estimate of R$6.1 billion. Bloomberg reported adjusted EPS for 4Q15 as R$0.16, down R$0.09 versus the year-ago quarter and below the consensus estimate of R$0.23.
  • The company’s same-store sales grew by 8.6% in 4Q15 and by 8.8% in 2015. Net income fell by 31.1% year over year in 4Q15 and by 41.5% in the full year due to increased expenses and challenging macroeconomic conditions.
  • Lojas Americanas’ revenues for 2015 were R$17.9 billion, 3.2% lower than the consensus estimate of R$18.5 billion. Adjusted EPS for 2015, as calculated by Bloomberg, was R$0.21, missing the consensus estimate of R$0.32.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • The US housing market looks set for a strong run in 2016–2017, so do-it-yourself (DIY) home improvement stores should be enjoying boom times. But shoppers in mature markets are shifting more toward “do it for me” (DIFM) services, where they pay tradespeople to do home maintenance rather than doing it themselves. A key driver of the DIFM trend is the aging of populations in Western Europe and North America.
  • Customers of some of the biggest US banks will finally be able to send money to another person’s account instantaneously by mobile phone. A new system called clearXchange will allow customers to transfer money in a flash to other people’s accounts at member banks.
  • Aldi UK began selling its nonfood Specialbuys online, marking a further move into e-commerce in the UK, following the launch of an online wine store in January. The new online offering features the short-term special deals that Aldi offers in its UK stores twice a week in categories such as apparel, DIY and electronics.
  • Toyota is working on a device to help give blind and visually impaired people greater mobility. The device, designed to be worn around the shoulders, uses cameras, speakers and vibration motors to communicate information to the user. The user interacts with the device through voice recognition and buttons.

Executive Summary

  • Williams-Sonoma reported 4Q15 revenues of $1.6 billion, up 2.9% year over year but slightly below the consensus estimate. EPS was $1.55, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.58 and down 1.2% year over year.
  • Comps increased by 0.8% year over year, following an increase of 5.1% in the year-ago quarter, based on 12.8% growth at West Elm that was partially offset by a decline of 2.0% at Pottery Barn.
  • For 2016, the company expects sales growth in the low-to-mid-single digits based on 3%–6% comp growth, or revenue of $5.2–$5.3 billion. The company expects 4%–8% EPS growth, which would result in EPS of $3.50–$3.65, below the consensus estimate of $3.75.
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Executive Summary

  • Ulta Beauty reported 4Q15 revenues of $1.3 billion, up 21.1% year over year and ahead of the consensus estimate. EPS was $1.69, beating the consensus estimate by 15 cents.
  • Comps increased by 12.5% year over year, following an increase of 11.1% in the year-ago quarter, based on 8.6% growth in transactions and a 3.9% increase in average ticket size.
  • For 2016, the company expects sales growth in the mid-to-high teens based on 8%–10% comp growth, or revenue of $4.5–$4.7 billion. It expects 18%–20% EPS growth, which would result in EPS of $5.87–$5.97.

Executive Summary

  • Dollar General reported 4Q15 revenues of $5.3 billion, up 7.0% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. EPS was $1.30, beating the consensus estimate by four cents. A tax benefit helped EPS by $0.06.
  • Comps were up 2.2%, driven by increases in customer traffic and average transaction value in both consumables and nonconsumables.
  • For 2016, the company expects an increase of 7%–10% in net sales, to $21.8–$22.4 billion, and an increase of 10%–15% in EPS, to $4.36–$4.55.
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Executive Summary

  • Wm Morrison (Morrisons) reported FY16 revenues of £16.12 billion, down 4.1% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate of £16.16 billion.
  • Comps were down 2.0% but turned positive in the fourth quarter.
  • Gross margin fell by 70 basis points, but cost reductions and prior-year writedowns contributed to a 700-basis-point improvement in the SG&A margin. As a result, operating margin improved by 609 basis points; net profit turned positive, to £222 million, beating consensus; and diluted EPS of 9 pence met consensus.
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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour reported that net sales increased by 3.0% in FY15, to €76.9 billion, which was below the consensus estimate of €77.6 billion. Recurring operating income increased by 2.4%, to €2.4 billion, just below consensus. Adjusted net income also grew, by 7.1%, to €1.1 billion, slightly below consensus.
  • Faster growth in Spain and Italy and the company’s performance in Latin America underpinned sales and profit growth.
  • Carrefour plans to continue to expand its store network and e-commerce operations in FY16, and is allocating €2.5–€2.6 billion in capex in support of that expansion.

Executive Summary

  • Vera Bradley reported fiscal 4Q15 revenues of $154.1 million, up 1.0% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate. EPS was $0.41, in line with the consensus.
  • Including e-commerce sales, total comps decreased by 4.6%. Excluding e-commerce sales, which were negatively impacted by a heavily promotional environment, comps were flat.
  • For 2016, the company guided for net revenues of $510–$525 million and EPS of $0.90–$0.98.

Executive Summary

  • Groupe Casino reported FY15 diluted underlying EPS of €2.80, a decline of 35.5% and below the consensus estimate of €2.81. The company reported that revenue decreased by 4.8%, to €46.1 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate.
  • EBIT decreased by 35.2%, to €1.4 billion, below the consensus estimate of €1.5 billion, while underlying net profit declined by 25.9%, to €412.0 million, beating consensus of €314.1 million.
  • Groupe Casino’s results were primarily affected by the economic slowdown in Brazil and the impact of foreign exchange rates. In FY16, the company plans to undertake significant deleveraging to improve its profitability in France and in the e-commerce segment, and to consolidate its position in Latin America.
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Executive Summary

  • Inditex reported FY15 normalized EPS of €0.92, an increase of 14.9% over FY14 and below the consensus estimate of €0.93. The company reported that revenue increased by 15.4%, to €20.9 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate.
  • EBIT increased by 14.9%, to €3.7 billion, just below the consensus estimate, while net income also grew by 14.9%, to €2.9 billion, slightly below consensus.
  • Inditex’s results were supported by store and online expansion and favorable comps. For FY16 the company plans to continue increasing revenue and profitability mainly by expanding its store network and e-commerce operations.
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Executive Summary

  • YOOX Net-a-Porter reported reclassified pro forma FY15 revenues of €1,665 million, up 30.9% year over year and narrowly beating the consensus estimate of €1,662 million.
  • EBITDA rose by 47.5%, from €85.7 million in FY14 to €126.4 million in FY15.
  • The company averaged 27.1 million monthly unique visitors, a 14.7% increase over FY14. Orders totaled a record 7.1 million, up 21.9% compared to the previous year. The average order value excluding VAT was €352, up 10.9% compared to FY14.
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Executive Summary

  • Retailers are prepping for the transition from spring to summer, promoting outdoor furniture, sandals, gardening tools, and beach-related items.
  • Some retailers are offering deeper discounts this week than they did during the same week last year.
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Executive Summary

  • DICK’S Sporting Goods reported 4Q15 net sales of $2.2 billion, up 3.7% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate. EPS was $1.13, down 12.9% year over year and missing the consensus estimate by two cents.
  • Consolidated same-store sales decreased by 2.5% following an increase of 3.4% in the year-ago quarter; guidance had called for a 2.0% decrease.
  • For 2016, the company expects same-store sales to be flat–2% and EPS of $2.85–$3.00. Analysts expect an 8.7% increase in revenues and EPS of $3.25.
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Executive Summary

  • Urban Outfitters reported 4Q15 EPS of $0.61 versus the consensus estimate of $0.56.
  • As previously reported on February 9, total sales came in at $1.01 billion for the quarter. Comps, which include the direct-to-consumer channel, decreased by 2%. Comps were up 2% at Free People, down 2% at Anthropologie and down 3% at Urban Outfitters. Wholesale sales increased by 29%, partially due to delayed shipments from the third quarter carrying over into the fourth quarter. The apparel category underperformed during the quarter.
  • Inventories were $330.2 million at the end of the period, down 7.8% year over year, and sales growth was 22.8% during the quarter.