Reasons to Read

Understand why US retail sales surged to their strongest growth rate of 2026. Explore how promotional activity, early back-to-school demand, tariff-related pull-forward purchases and improving month-over-month consumer conditions supported spending, while our machine-learning-driven outlook points to a moderation in growth through the remainder of the year. ‌

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• What are Coresight Research’s projections for year-over-year retail sales growth in each of the next 12 months?
• What does the latest proprietary Retail Growth Outlook Score look like, and how does that compare to prior months?
• What are the latest indications across a number of retail-impacting macroeconomic measures?
• How are stable sources of asset-derived income, including interest and dividend income, helping support household spending power amid a challenging macroeconomic environment?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.