Executive Summary

  • Big Lots reported 4Q15 revenues of $1.6 billion, down 0.6% year over year and slightly missing the consensus estimate. Comps increased by 0.7%, despite the negative impact of Winter Storm Jonas and a later start to the tax-refund season, representing the eighth consecutive quarter of growth.
  • Adjusted EPS was $2.00, above the consensus estimate of $1.98 and representing a 13.6% increase from $1.76 in the year-ago quarter.
  • Big Lots expects FY16 comp growth in the low single digits, owing to the net impact of an e-commerce launch and a lower overall store count. The company guided for EPS of $20–$3.35, in line with the consensus estimate of $3.30.

Executive Summary

  • Kroger reported 4Q15 revenues of $26.2 billion, up 3.8% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate of $26.3 billion. EPS was $0.57, beating the consensus estimate by three cents.
  • Same-store sales growth excluding fuel was 3.9%. Including six weeks of results from the acquired Roundy’s chain, same-store sales growth excluding fuel was 3.7%.
  • For FY16, the company expects same-store sales growth to be identical to FY15’s, i.e., 2.5%–3.5%, which translates to revenues of $112.6 billion, below the consensus estimate of $119.0 billion. The company also expects EPS of $2.19–$2.28, in line with the consensus estimate of $2.23.

 

 

Executive Summary

Agenda
  • Q4 2015 Wrap-up and Spring Retail Trends
  • Macro Trends and Outlook
  • FBIC Upcoming Events
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Executive Summary

  • Adidas Group reported net sales of €16.9 billion in FY15, beating the consensus estimate and up 16.4% from the previous year. The growth was mainly driven by strong regional performance in Western Europe; Greater China; Latin America; and the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
  • Net income rose by 29.3%, to €634 million, and reported EPS grew by 34.0%, to €3.15; both missed consensus estimates.
  • The group expects strong top- and bottom-line trends to continue through FY16, and projects that sales will increase by 10%–12% at constant currency.

Executive Summary

  • Costco reported fiscal 2Q16 revenue of $28.2 billion, up 2.6% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate of $28.6 billion. EPS was $1.24, missing the consensus estimate by four cents. The reported EPS figure includes items that hurt EPS by $0.11 per share.
  • Comps were up 1% for the total company: they were up 3% in the US, down 7% in Canada and down 3% in other international divisions. Excluding gasoline sales and foreign exchange, total comps were up 5%: they were up 4% in the US, up 10% in Canada and up 6% in other international.
  • Consensus estimates are for revenues of $121.6 billion (up 6.9%) and EPS of $5.47 (up 1.9%) in 2016.

Executive Summary

  • Ahold reported FY15 diluted EPS of €1.02, an increase of 52.2% year over year and above the consensus estimate of €1.00. The company reported that revenue increased by 16.6%, to €38.2 billion, above consensus of €37.7 billion.
  • Underlying EBIT increased by 15.3%, to €1.5 billion, above the consensus estimate of €1.4 billion, while net income increased by 43.3%, to €851.0 million, beating consensus of €844.7 million.
  • Ahold’s revenue in FY15 was sustained by strong sales momentum in the Netherlands, a favorable holiday season, strong online performance and market share gains in the New York metro area. For FY16, Ahold expects underlying EBIT to continue growing in line with FY15 EBIT.

Executive Summary

  • Falabella reported 4Q15 net revenues of CLP$2.4 trillion, up 6.6% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. Bloomberg reported the company’s EPS as CLP$83.80 for 4Q15, slightly below the consensus estimate of CLP$84.66 but up 11.0% year over year.
  • Comps increased in Chile and Argentina across all stores, including department stores, home improvement stores and supermarkets, though they decreased in Peru and Brazil. Colombia saw mixed results, with comps increasing by 12% for home improvement stores, but falling by 6% for department stores.
  • Falabella opened 13 new stores in Latin America and one shopping center in 4Q15. The company plans to invest US$4.0 billion during 2016–2019 to open 10 new shopping centers and 131 new stores, grow its omni-channel operations, increase its selling area, and remodel its existing stores and shopping centers.
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Executive Summary

  • American Eagle Outfitters reported 4Q15 revenues of $1.1 billion, up 3.2% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. EPS of $0.42 was up 17.4% year over year and also in line with consensus.
  • The company commented that 4Q15 was challenging for the industry due to external factors, but that the spring season is off to a good start, even compared with last year’s positive results.
  • In 2016, American Eagle Outfitters will focus on improving margins, acquiring customers, and strengthening operations and brands. 1Q16 guidance calls for comps in the mid-single digits and EPS of $0.17–19, above the consensus estimate of $0.15.
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Executive Summary

  • Dollar Tree reported that 4Q15 revenues were up 116.7%, to $5.4 billion, which was at the midpoint of the guidance range but slightly below the consensus estimate. The figure includes $2.7 billion of revenue from the company’s Family Dollar acquisition. Excluding this figure, revenues increased by 8.5%. Adjusted EPS was $1.01, below the $1.07 consensus estimate.
  • Following a tough, 5.6% comp in the year-ago quarter, same-store sales increased by 1.7% on a constant-currency basis in 4Q15 (and by 1.3% when adjusted for fluctuations in the Canadian dollar). Comps were positive for Family Dollar as well.
  • For 2016, the company expects revenues of $20.8–$21.1 billion versus consensus of $21.0 billion and EPS of $3.35–$3.65 versus consensus of $3.78.
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Executive Summary

  • Luxottica reported FY15 EPS of US$1.86, an increase of 3.7% but below the consensus estimate of US$1.95. The company reported that revenue increased by 15.5%, to €8.8 billion, below consensus of €8.9 billion.
  • Adjusted EBIT increased by 22.5%, to €1.4 billion, below the consensus estimate of €1.5 billion, while net income increased by 25.1%, to €804.1 million, below consensus of €855.1 million.
  • Luxottica expects to generate 5%–6% revenue growth at constant exchange rates in FY16 and to increase investment to more than €1.5 billion over the next three years.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported 2015 EPS of €0.48, an increase of 139.0% over the previous year and ahead of the consensus estimate of €0.29. Revenue increased by 33.6%, to €3.0 billion, which was slightly below the consensus estimate.
  • In the year, the company invested in platform strategy, technology and fulfillment, while maintaining profitability. EBIT increased by 44.3%, to €89.6 million, below the consensus estimate of €98.6 million.
  • In 2016, Zalando expects revenue growth of about 20%–25%, to €3.6–€3.7 billion, and an adjusted EBIT margin of 3.0%–4.5%, with €200 million in capex.
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Executive Summary

  • Kate Spade reported 4Q15 revenues of $428 million, up 13.9% from the year-ago period and 2.7% below the consensus of $440 million. Reported adjusted EPS was $0.32, down x% from $0.24 in 4Q14 and in line with consensus.
  • The company reported quarterly comps of 7.6 % and full year comps of 13% driven by successful product category and geographic expansion strategies.
  • The company guided for adjusted EPS of $0.7–$0.8 and low to mid-teens comp sales growth for 2016.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Magazine Luiza reported 4Q15 net revenues of R$2.5billion, down 8.7% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. EPS of R$(2.34) was well below the consensus estimate of R$(0.68).
  • Comps decreased by 11.6%, while e-commerce sales increased by 19.1%. Brick-and-mortar sales were down 17.6%. E-commerce sales accounted for 21.1% of total sales.
  • Net revenues for 2015 were down 8.2%, to R$9.0 billion.
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Executive Summary

  • Kate Spade reported adjusted 4Q15 revenues of $427.8 million, up 13.9% from the year-ago period but below the consensus estimate of $440 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.32, up 33.7% from $0.24 in 4Q14 and in line with consensus.
  • The company reported quarterly comps of 7.6% and full year comps of 13%, driven by successful product categories and geographic expansion.
  • The company guided for adjusted EPS of $0.70–$0.80 and comp sales growth in the low to mid-teens for 2016.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Ross Stores reported 4Q15 revenues of $3.3 billion, up 7.2% year over year and slightly above the consensus estimate of $3.2 billion. EPS was $0.66, beating the consensus estimate by two cents and coming in 9.4% higher than the $0.60 recorded in the year-ago quarter.
  • Total comps increased by 4%, on top of last year’s 6% growth, driven by attractive assortments of name brands at value prices, despite a highly promotional retail environment over the holiday season.
  • The company provided cautious2016 guidance of 1%–2% comp growth for the year and EPS of $2.59–$2.71, both of which are below consensus estimates.
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