Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • Overview – Retail Sales Looking Brighter for Back-to-School
  • 2Q Update – Earnings Scorecards; Consumer Discretionary Leads Growth
  • July Same-Stores Sales Somewhat Mixed
  • Back-to-School Drives July Traffic to Best Month of Calendar Year
  • Back-to-School Outlook; Solid Forecast, Room for Upside
  • Category Spend; School Supplies and Clothing Highest Growth
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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported revenue growth of 24.4% year over year to €1,712.6 million in 1H16, slightly below the consensus estimate of €1,715.7 million.
  • The company reported 1H16 adjusted EBIT up 70.9% to €101.2 million and the   adjusted EBIT margin reached 5.9%, up from 4.3% in 1H15. Adjusted EBIT margin reached 8.8% in 2Q16 and expanded 470 bps from 4.1% in 2Q15.
  • Zalando reiterated the company expects to deliver FY16 revenue growth at the upper end of the forecasted 20% to 25% revenue growth range, and adjusted FY16 EBIT margin to fall in the range of 4% to 5.5%.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s (M) announced that it will close 100 of its 675 full-line stores at the end of its current fiscal year.
  • The company experienced an inflection in sales trends in the second quarter after seeing several quarters of challenging top-line results.
  • Macy’s will operate fewer stores and concentrate on better-performing locations.
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Executive Summary

  • Office Depot (ODP) announced the expansion of its US retail store optimization program, which started in 2014; the company plans to close 300 stores in the next three years. In the second quarter of 2016, the company completed the closure of 400 stores.
  • At the same time, Office Depot plans to expand its“store of the future” pilot program to 24 stores by the end of this year. The program features more elements that are designed to enhance the shopping experience.
  • Office Depot expects total company sales to be lower in 2016 than they were in 2015 due to the store closures and disruption from the prolonged Staples acquisition attempt.
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Executive Summary

  • Trivver is building a technology that allows brands to bid for advertising opportunities and advertise their products on multiple 3D and 2D digital platforms.
  • In this report, we discuss how brands will advertise in the future and how Trivver’s technology will help them capture the market.
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Executive Summary

  • Walmart (WMT) and Jet.com announced today they have signed of a definitive agreement under which Walmart will acquire Jet.com for approximately $3.3 billion in cash and stock.
  • The acquisition is expected to close by the end of the calendar year, subject to regulatory approvals. com’s CEO, Marc Lore, is expected to assume a senior management position at the combined entity.
  • In the deal, Jet.com gets access to Walmart’s scale and balance sheet, and Walmart gets access to Jet’s management team, customer base and technology.
  • Consumers will likely continue to benefit from the merger of two companies focused on delivering low prices to their customers.
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Executive Summary

  • International air passenger traffic gained momentum in June, sustained by growth in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Latin America showed the highest growth in cross-border air passenger traffic.
  • The US is the only region that showed growth both in hotel occupancy and in average daily rate (ADR).
  • The perception of risks related to terrorism in Europe continued to weigh on the region’s performance.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is promoting more items this week than it did during the same week last year. This week’s 16-hour, online-only sale focuses on more categories, including home and jewelry, while it focused only on kids’ styles last year.
  • JCPenney is running fewer promotions than it did during this week last year. The retailer is promoting 10 new deals every day for six days. Last year, it ran more sales, which included home and back-to-school promotions.
  • Kohl’s is offering a longer-running Kohl’s Charge promotion than it did during this week last year. This year, for the first time ever, the retailer is also promoting a Converse sale.
  • This week, Macy’s is running promotional sales comparable to last year’s. However, the retailer is not focusing on back-to-school sales this year.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the Pokéconomy, the multibillion-dollar businesses and opportunities that have sprung up in conjunction with Pokémon Go’s meteoric rise in the last month.
  • Transaction times using EMV cards, or chip cards, are slowly getting faster, but mobile payments seem to be the real solution to the problem. On average, a chip card payment takes 13 seconds, while a mobile payment takes only six.
  • Online giant Amazon has launched its Amazon Dash handheld shopping device in the UK. Customers can use Dash to scan a product’s barcode and order that product on Amazon. The device is currently available only in London.
  • The Land Transport Authority of Singapore has been working on trials of automated vehicles for public transportation since last year, and has received eight national and international proposals, including one from the UK’s Delphi Automotive. Delphi hopes to launch a fully automated taxi service by 2022.

Executive Summary

  • Target (TGT) has resumed selling Amazon (AMZN) electronic devices such as Fire tablets, Fire TV video devices and Kindle e-readers on target.com. The products are scheduled to return to shelves in October 2016.
  • Target stopped selling these products in 2012, citing a “conflict of interest,” which likely indicated its plans to enter the content delivery business.
  • Restocking Amazon electronic products could help mitigate softness in Target’s hardline sales. It also gives Amazon an additional 1,800 locations where customers can view its products in order to compete with Apple’s physical stores.
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Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported 1H17 full-price sales decreased 0.3%, with new space adding 1.5% to sales. However, total sales, including markdowns, increased 1.8%in 1H17.
  • In 2Q17, full-price sales increased 0.3% year over year, a sequential improvement from the fall of 0.9% in 1Q17.
  • The company narrowed its FY17 guidance range for full price Next brand sales by 1% on both the upper and lower bounds. The company now expects total full price sales growth of the Next Brand to be between the range of (2.5)% to +2.5%.
  • Next will report full 1H17 results on September 15, 2016.
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Executive Summary

  • This morning, The Wall Street Journal broke the story that Walmart (WMT) is in talks to acquire e-retailer Jet.com for up to $3 billion. It is possible that the transaction could ultimately be a strategic investment.
  • Jet officially launched one year ago, and reportedly reached a $1 billion annual revenue run rate and exceeded internal targets in July. The company has reportedly been seeking to raise $640 million at a $1.7 billion valuation.
  • Jet would be a good fit for Walmart, which is increasingly focusing on its online business. Revenue growth in Walmart’s online business decelerated to 7% in the first quarter of 2016 from 12% in 2015.
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Executive Summary

  • CVS reported 2Q16 adjusted EPS of $1.32, up 8.3% year over year and ahead of guidance of $1.28–$1.31, beating the consensus estimate by two cents. The company reported revenues of $43.7 billion, up 17.6% year over year but missing the $44.3 billion consensus estimate.
  • Growth was driven by the Pharmacy Services segment, whose revenues grew by 20.7% year over year, to $29.5 billion, due to higher pharmacy network claim volume and growth in specialty pharmacy.
  • The company raised and narrowed its FY16 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.81–$5.89 from $5.73–$5.88 previously, though it lowered its GAAP EPS guidance due to debt extinguishment and acquisition-integration costs.

Executive Summary

  • Metro Group reported net sales of €13.6 billion in3Q16, a fall of 2.7% from 3Q15, close to the consensus estimate of €13.8 billion. In local currency terms, sales grew by 0.4%.
  • Comps were flat and the operating margin declined by 152 points.
  • Reported EPS was €(0.07) for the period, down 120% from 3Q15, but missed the consensus estimate of €0.02.
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Executive Summary

  • Salvatore Ferragamo posted 1H16 revenues of €710 million, a decrease of 1.7% year over year and below the consensus estimate of €712 million. On a constant-currency basis, revenues decreased by 3.1%.
  • 2Q16 revenues declined by 1.5% year over year and by 4.0% at constant exchange rates, to €389 million.
  • 1H16 operating profit remained flat year over year, at €136 million, versus the consensus estimate of €137 million. The company did not report earnings per share.
  • The company reported that CEO Michele Norsa will resign and will be replaced by EraldoPoletto, former CEO of Furla, effective August 3, 2016.
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