Executive Summary

  • American Eagle Outfitters reported 2Q 2016 EPS of $0.23 and exceeded expectations of $0.21, driven by improved margins.
  • Sales at Aerie saw strong momentum and reported the fifth consecutive quarter of comps above 20%. The brand plans to launch a new sports and yoga line this fall.
  • Management guided 3Q 2016 comps will be up low single-digit versus the expected 2.8% and EPS of $0.40–$0.41, in line with the $0.41 consensus.

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Executive Summary

  • L Brands reported 2Q 2016 adjusted EPS of $0.70, up 3% and above the guidance it provided earlier in the month, which was at the high end of $0.50–$0.60 and versus the consensus of $0.57. Revenues were $2.89 billion, up 4.5% year over year and above the consensus estimate of $2.85 billion.
  • Comps were up 3% and 1% for store-only, driven by Victoria’s Secret’s increase of 2% and Bath & Body Works’ increase of 5%.
  • The company expects 3Q 2016 EPS to be $0.40–$0.45, versus consensus of $0.47. Management increased its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.70–$3.85 from $3.60–$3.80 previously, and versus the consensus of $3.74. Expectations are for full-year comps to increase 1.3%, driven by Victoria’s Secret (+0.1%) and Bath & Body Works (+3.9%).

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Tencent reported 2Q 2016 revenues of ¥35.7 billion, up 52.3% year over year and 6% ahead of the consensus estimate. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was ¥1.16, up 41% year over year and beat the consensus estimate of ¥1.10.
  • All segments performed strongly. Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue increased 39% year over year and comprised 72% of total revenue. Smartphone games outperformed, with revenue growth of 114% and comprised 27% of total revenue.
  • In the second half of 2016 and beyond, the company plans to further build its mobile ecosystem, strengthen its smartphone game portfolio by leveraging on Supercell, the Finnish game developer Tencent recently acquired, and grow its digital-content business.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • On August 16, consumer goods giant Unilever (LSE: ULVR) announced that it had agreed to acquire Blueair, a Swedish air-purification systems manufacturer, for an undisclosed sum.
  • Unilever said that privately owned Blueair turned over US$106 million in revenues in 2015. The acquisition will take Unilever into a new category.
  • According to market researchers’ forecasts, the air-purification systems category is set for robust growth, with urbanization and consumer awareness of health issues fueling purchases.
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Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported fiscal 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.07 versus the consensus estimate of $1.02.
  • Walmart US comps were up 1.6%, driven by a 1.2% increase in traffic and a 0.4% increase in average ticket. Sam’s Club comps (excluding fuel) were up 0.6% versus consensus of (0.1)% and guidance of “slightly positive.” Neighborhood Market comps increased by 6.5%. E-commerce benefited comps by 40 basis points.
  • Management raised its full-year EPS guidance from $4.00–$4.30 to $4.15–$4.35, which includes a $0.05 negative impact (primarily in the fourth quarter) related to expected operating losses due to the planned acquisition of Jet.com. Consensus calls for full-year EPS of $4.27.
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Executive Summary

  • Target reported 2Q16 adjusted EPS of $1.23 versus the consensus estimate of $1.13.
  • Comps were down 1.1% versus expectations of a 0.7% decline and guidance of flat–(2)%. Traffic was down 2.2%, but the decline was partially offset by a 2.6% increase in average selling price. Units per transaction were down 1.5%. Comps in Target’s signature categories were up 2%.
  • Target lowered its full-year EPS guidance to $4.80–$5.20 from $5.20–$5.40 previously; consensus calls for EPS of $5.13. The company lowered its outlook for 2H16 comps based on the current retail environment. Management is planning for a challenging second half of the year.

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Executive Summary

  • Urban Outfitters reported 2Q 2016 EPS of $0.66 versus last year’s $0.52, and beat the consensus estimate of $0.55. Reported revenues were $890.6 million, up 3% year over year and exceeded expectations of $885.9 million, driven by a wholesale net sales increase of 4%.
  • The upside in the quarter was driven by somewhat better comps, but more so by lower markdowns at Urban Outfitters and Anthropologie.
  • The company also saw significant growth in its emerging categories like home, beauty, intimates and music. The beauty category continued to see compounded comp growth and higher penetration in the total business.

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Executive Summary

  • The TJX Companies reported 2Q16 EPS of $0.84 versus the consensus estimate of $0.81.
  • Total revenues were $7.88 billion, above expectations of $7.85 billion. Comps were up 4%, beating expectations of 3.5%, and were almost completely driven by higher traffic. The period marked the seventh consecutive quarter in which comps were primarily driven by increases in traffic. Units per transaction increased, while average ticket declined by slightly more than planned. Both the apparel (including accessories) and home categories performed well.
  • For the full year, the company raised its EPS outlook to $3.39–$3.43 from $3.35–$3.42 previously, based on 3%–4% expected comp growth. The increase is based on better performance in the second quarter.
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Executive Summary

  • EPS was $1.97, up 13.9% and in line with consensus on record net income of $2.4 billion. Revenues were a record $26.5 billion, up 6.6% year over year and in line with consensus.
  • Comps were 4.7% and 5.4% for US stores, aided by the tailwind of the strong housing market. The Pro and DIY segments maintained a healthy balance.
  • The company maintained guidance of revenues +6.3% and comps +4.9% for 2016 and raised EPS guidance to $6.31 from $6.27.

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Executive Summary

  • Dick’s Sporting Goods reported 2Q 2016 EPS of $0.82 compared to $0.77 a year ago, and exceeded its guidance of $0.62–$0.72 and consensus of $0.69, driven by strong e-commerce growth and lower impact of its rivals’ liquidation activities.
  • The expectations of management were low due to the liquidation activities of Dick’s rivals, Sports Authority and Sport Chalet, in many of Dick’s key markets. Dick’s has potential to gain significant share in these markets in the long term.
  • Dicks Sporting Goods raised its FY 2016 EPS guidance to $2.90–$3.50 from previous guidance of $2.60–$2.90. Comps sales are expected to grow at 2%–3%, versus the previous expectation of -1%–1%.
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Executive Summary

  • JC Penney reported 2Q 2016 EPS of ($0.05) versus consensus of ($0.14). EBITDA was $233.0 million, above consensus of $200.9 million.
  • Comps were up 2.2%, in line with expectations. Comp trends improved sequentially throughout the period both in stores and online.
  • Management reaffirmed its prior full-year guidance. Adjusted EPS is expected to be positive, comps are expected to increase 3% to 4%, gross margins are expected to increase 10 to 30bps, SG&A dollars are expected to decline year over year and EBITDA is projected to be $1 billion.
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Executive Summary

  • H&M reported total sales grew by 10% year over year in local currencies in July 2016. Growth in June was 8%.
  • Total number of stores grew by 12.5% year over year, to 4,105 as of July 31.
  • Sales growth lagged store growth by 250 basis points in July, a narrowing from the 444-basis-point difference in June.
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Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is promoting more items this week than it did during the same week last year. This year, the retailer is running more reward promotions, offering customers discounts and gift cards when they spend a certain amount, whereas last year, it only offered one reward card promotion.
  • JCPenney is running fewer promotions than it did during this week last year. The retailer is promoting its JCPenney credit card this week by offering better discounts when customers use the credit card. Last year, it focused on gift card promotions and a back-to-school sale.
  • Kohl’sran more promotions during this week last year than it is offering this week. This year, the company is running more online-exclusive sales and is promoting its’ Kohl’s Cash. Last year during, the retailer promoted its’ Kohl’s Charge more heavily.
  • This week, Macy’s is running fewer promotional sales than it did last year. The retailer is having a back-to-school sale this week, which it did not offer last year.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” considers the value that operating physical stores brings to retailers, particularly in terms of marketing.
  • Off-price retailers will continue to take market share from department stores, according to Moody’s Investors Service, which estimates that off-price revenue will grow by 6% to 8% in the next five years. As traditional department stores are struggling with sales and closing stores, off-price retailers are expanding and adding stores.
  • UK supermarket chain Sainsbury’s is launching a new range of athleisure items in 170 stores and online. The move underlines the company’s plans to grow its nonfood business and maximize store space.
  • Amazon Fashion launched in Mexico on July 28, entering a market that faces many challenges in terms of e-commerce. The e-store will include millions of items of clothing and accessories in a variety of colors and sizes, and the company plans to offer free shipping and returns for “eligible articles.”

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Executive Summary

  • Dior (EPA: CDI) opened an online boutique shop on WeChat and rolled out a new, limited-edition Lady Dior small handbag on the platform on August 1.
  • The luxury brand promoted the handbag on its WeChat subscription account and via WeChat Moments, an area similar to Facebook’s newsfeed, where friends can share content. The handbag sold out on the second day.
  • Brands can use WeChat as an entry point for tapping into the online retail market in China. The social app has more than 700 million monthly active users that brands can reach with targeted advertising.
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