Executive Summary

  • The TJX Companies reported adjusted 3Q17 EPS of $0.91 versus the consensus estimate of $0.87.
  • Total revenues were $8.29 billion versus expectations of $8.22 billion. Comps increased by 5%, beating expectations of 3.5%, driven by customer traffic. Momentum in both sales and traffic continued in the period. Comps were up 5% at Marmaxx, 6% at HomeGoods and 8% at TJX Canada, and were flat at TJX Europe.
  • Full-year guidance now calls for EPS of $3.46–$3.48, up from $3.39–$3.43 previously and versus consensus of $3.48. The guidance range includes a negative impact of 3% related to wage increases and 3% related to foreign exchange. Comps are expected to increase by 4% versus 3%–4% previously.
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Executive Summary

  • In this report, we have profiled 10 NLP startups working in the areas of natural language search, conversational commerce, automated speech recognition and content analysis, which have the potential to disrupt the retail industry.
  • NLP is a branch of Artificial Intelligence, and it forms the backbone of chatbots, as well as the core element supporting machine translation, information extraction and summarization.
  • The global NLP market was valued at $277.2 million in 2015, and is expected to reach $2.1 billion by 2024.
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Executive Summary

  • H&M reported total sales rose by 10% year over year in local currencies in October 2016. This compares to growth in September, which was only 1%.
  • The total number of stores grew by 12.1% year over year, to 4,269, as of October 31.
  • Sales growth lagged store growth by 214 basis points in October, a narrowing from the 1,162bps difference in September.
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Executive Summary

  • Milan-listed luxury group Salvatore Ferragamo reported a 0.7% slide in revenues in the nine months ended September 30, 2016. Revenues were virtually in line with the consensus estimate.
  • Operating costs grew by 2.2%, leading to a 2.1% fall in operating profit, which came in marginally behind analysts’ expectations.
  • Wholesale revenues were the weak spot, with a major sequential weakening in 3Q16. US wholesale revenues slumped 26% in 3Q16. This performance in wholesale mirrors that reported by some other luxury firms recently.
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Executive Summary

  • JCPenney reported 3Q16 adjusted EPS of $(0.21), in line with the consensus estimate.
  • Total revenues were $2.86 billion, below expectations of $2.95 billion. Comparable-store sales were down 0.8% versus expectations of a 2.2% increase. Comps were positive in October, driven by a comp benefit of more than 20 basis points from the company’s 500 new appliance showrooms. That said, apparel sales were soft. All apparel categories, including men’s, kids’ and women’s, performed below the total company comp, with men’s apparel posting the best performance. In women’s apparel, sales were soft in the contemporary, juniors and misses categories, but were strong in moderate dresses and junior bottoms.
  • Management lowered its guidance for the full year. Comps are now expected to increase by 1%–2%, down from 3%–4% previously, versus consensus of 2.2%. EPS is still expected to be positive, consistent with prior guidance.
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Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is offering a similar number of promotions this week as it did during the same week last year. This week, the retailer is offering one online-exclusive home sale, but it did not offer any online-exclusive sales during the same week last year. In both years, Bloomingdale’s promoted its beauty treats online and in stores. This week, the retailer is also promoting new perks for customers who are Bloomingdale’s American Express cardholders. Last year, it promoted the online release of its outlet store. The retailer used text message marketing during this week last year, but is not using it this week.
  • JCPenney is also promoting a similar number of offers this week compared with last year. The retailer is offering two online-only promotions this week, while it did not promote any last year during the same week. This week, JCPenney began its Black Friday promotions, which it had not yet begun during the same week last year.
  • Kohl’s is running slightly fewer sales this year than it did during the same week last year. Last year, the company began its Black Friday deals during this week, including a one-day online-exclusive sale, but it has not offered any Black Friday deals so far this week. Kohl’s is currently offering a Kohl’s Cash promotion similar to the one it ran last week; last year at this time, it promoted both Kohl’s Charge and Kohl’s Cash.
  • Macy’s is offering fewer promotions this week than it did last year during the same week. In both years, Macy’s featured a pop-up sale and a one-day shopping event. The company offered an in-store-only promotion with free items and promoted its Macy’s Star Rewards program last year, but is not offering similar promotions this week.
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Executive Summary

  • Kohl’s reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $0.80, up 7.0% year over year and beating the consensus estimate by $0.10. Revenues were $4.3 billion, down 2.3% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • Comparable-store sales declined by 1.7%, in line with estimates, based on a modest improvement in year-to-date comp sales trends, including a strong back-to-school selling season, followed by a weak September selling period.
  • The company reaffirmed its guidance for fiscal 2016 GAAP EPS of $3.12–$3.22 and adjusted EPS of $3.80–$4.00.

 

 

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Executive Summary

In this report, we examine some of the latest technology in healthcare, such as gene editing and gene therapy, personal genomics, nanomedicine, organs-on-chips, regenerative medicine and other trends, such as wearable technology and robotics. These are some key findings:

  • The global digital healthcare market was worth US$60.8 billion in 2013, and is estimated to grow to US$135.9 billion in 2017 and reach nearly US$233.3 billion in 2020.
  • There are some 4,000 diseases linked to genetic dysfunction. Conventional drugs do not work for about 75% of cancer (a genetic disease) patients, on average.
  • The global nanomedicine market was worth US$248 billion in 2014, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% to reach US$528 billion in 2019.
  • The market for organs-on-chips was worth some US$31.5 million in 2015, and growth is expected to surge at a CAGR of 70% by 2020.
  • New developments in healthcare must solve the problems that patients and healthcare professionals face regularly, in order to become economically viable and successful.
  • They also need to get through the long stages of clinical trials and gain regulatory approvals faster, in order to be available to the mass market.
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Executive Summary

  • Nordstrom reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $0.84, ahead of the $0.52 consensus estimate, but down 52.5% year over year. Revenues were $3.54 billion, up 7.2% year over year and above the consensus estimate.
  • Off-price apparel was the strongest category in the quarter, with net sales from Nordstrom Rack stores and Nordstromrack.com/HauteLook.com increasing by 10.1%. Comparable sales in the category increased by 3.9%.
  • For fiscal year 2016, the company updated its sales guidance to 3.5% and its guidance for adjusted earnings per diluted share to $2.85–$2.95 to incorporate the upside from the third quarter.

Executive Summary

  • NetEase, a leading online game service provider in China, reported 3Q16 revenues of ¥9.21 billion (US$1.38 billion), up 38% year over year and 5% below the consensus estimate. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was ¥22.82 (US$3.42), ahead of the US$3.20 consensus estimate and up 7% year over year.
  • Online game service revenues totaled ¥6.57 billion (US$0.99 billion) for 3Q16, an increase of 0% year over year. Advertising services and email, e-commerce and others revenue grew 23.8% and 107.2% to US$0.56 billion and US$2.08 billion, respectively.
  • Margins were squeezed year over year in both the online game services and advertising services segments. The margin for the e-mail, e-commerce and other business jumped year over year, as the e-commerce business was in a development phase last year.
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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported 3Q16 revenue growth of 17.1% year over year to €834.8 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of €844.3 million. Revenues in the Germany, Austria and Switzerland division increased 9.7% to €407.1 million and the Rest of Europe region posted year-over-year sales growth of 24.3% to 374.0 million.
  • The gross margin expanded 80 basis points (bps) year over year to 41.4% and SG&A margin declined 480bps to 39.1%. The company reported 3Q16 adjusted EBIT of €19.5 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 2.3%. This marks a clear year-over-year improvement, as Zalando reported an adjusted EBIT decline of €23.5 million and EBIT margin of (3.3)% in 3Q15. Diluted EPS increased to €0.02 in 3Q16 from €(0.12) in 3Q15.
  • Management reiterated that the company expects to deliver FY16 revenue growth at the upper end of its forecast 20.0-25.0% revenue growth range. Zalando expects adjusted FY16 EBIT margin to come in at 5.0-6.0%, a clear improvement from the 3.6% EBIT margin in FY15.
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Executive Summary

  • Supergroup reported 1H17 revenue growth of +31.1% year over year to £334.0 million, in line with the consensus estimate. New retail space contributed 15.0% to total sales growth. Retail comparable store sales increased 12.8% year over year in 1H17.
  • 1H17 gross margin is expected to contract by 130bps, mainly reflecting a greater share of lower-margin wholesale revenues, as well as the dilutive impact from targeted clearance activity. The channel mix impact will contribute to about 80-90bps of gross margin erosion.
  • The company expects 1H17 profit to fall in the range of £20-22 million, suggesting 9% year-over-year growth at the range midpoint, and FY17 profit to be in line with market expectations of £84.6 million. In 2H17, the company expects small gross margin accretion after some initial headwinds from input cost inflation. If this is delivered, this would suggest FY17 gross margin erosion of 40-60bps.
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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $0.17 versus the consensus estimate of $0.41. The miss was driven by SG&A expenses. Total revenues were $5.63 billion, inline with analysts’ expectations. Comparable-store sales declined by 3.3% on an owned basis and by 2.7% on an owned-plus-licensed basis.
  • Sales results accelerated in the third quarter relative to the first half of the year and management expressed confidence that it will be able to reach its targets for the fourth quarter, owing in part to improved trends in the apparel business.
  • The company reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance of $3.15–$3.40 versus consensus of $3.37. Comps on an owned-plus-licensed basis are expected to be (2.5)%–(3.0)% versus (3.0)%–(4.0)% previously. Comps on an owned basis are expected to be 50basis points lower.
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Executive Summary

  • Ralph Lauren reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of$1.90, beating the consensus estimate of $1.71.
  • Revenues decreased by 7.6%, to $1.82 billion, from $1.97 billion in the second quarter last year, and beat the consensus estimate of $1.81 billion. Comparable-store sales decreased by 8%on a reported basis and by 9% in constant currency versus consensus estimates that called for declines of 6% and 7%, respectively.
  • The company maintained its fiscal year 2017 guidance for net revenues to decrease at a low single-digit rate. The company continues to expect its full-year operating margin to be 10%.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” takes a look at the Singles’ Day shopping fever that will engulf China and much of the rest of the world this November 11.
  • As consumers begin their holiday shopping earlier, retailers are ramping up holiday promotions. Industry experts urge retailers not to panic yet over consumers’ continued reluctance to splurge on apparel and accessories. However, many retailers are finding that they have to sell goods for less, and most are saying that they are discounting at the same rate as a year ago.
  • Amazon’s apparel sales grew by 5% in October year over year and by 85% month over month, according to One Click Retail. Growth in the men’s category was particularly strong. Amazon’s traction in its apparel business is mostly in basics.
  • Nike has opened a space called the Kicks Lounge in the Costanera Center mall in Santiago, Chile. The 4,434-square-foot store is the first Kicks Lounge in the region and the sixth in the world. Chile has become a hub in Latin America for sneaker culture, and the specialty store will offer exclusive Nike sneakers not found in other locations.