Executive Summary

  • Abercrombie & Fitch revamped its brand to give itself a makeover after years of struggle.
  • In August of 2015, the company hired top designers to turn around the brand’s name.
  • While Abercrombie & Fitch’s efforts to rebrand are apparent, with some new, updated styles and an improved in-store experience, the brand appears to have missed the mark.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” focuses on three trends that our global teams—which are currently preparing our holiday 2016 reports—expect to have an impact on US consumers this holiday season.
  • This holiday shopping season is expected to be led by the millennials, who will help drive the highest e-commerce sales revenue yet. A recent study found that more than one-fifth (21%) of millennials started their holiday shopping by November 1 last year and that more than a third (38%) started their shopping before Black Friday.
  • US fragrance and cosmetics group Coty has acquired London-based GHD for US$510 million. GHD, short for Good Hair Day, produces electrical hair appliances. The company generated 2015 revenues of US$219 million and has seen 30% revenue growth during the past three years.
  • ZTO Express, which delivers parcels for Alibaba and JD.com, is planning an IPO in the US later this month that could raise as much as US$1.5 billion. China is the world’s largest express delivery market, with 21 billion parcels delivered in 2015.

Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is offering a similar amount of promotions and sales this week as it did during the same week last year. The retailer offered up to two online-exclusive promotions last year, while it promoted two in-store-exclusive sales this week. This week, it is featuring a new section for discounted items of the week, which was not seen last year. The retailer is using text message marketing this week, which was used during this week last year.
  • JCPenney is promoting slightly more sales this week than it did during the same week last year. The retailer offered up to two online or in-store exclusive promotions, which have not been promoted this week. Instead, JCPenney had a one-day deals promotion, including 70% off select jewelry. This week, the retailer is starting its Black Friday promotions, while it did not last year.
  • Kohl’s is running fewer sales this year than it did during the same week last year. The company is offering shoppers the friends and family promotion, as it did last year. Kohl’s is beginning its Black Friday promotions this week by emphasizing its once-a-year Kohl’s Cash of $15 for every $50 spent. During the same week last year, the company had its first-ever jewelry event that offered an extra 25% off jewelry and watches that were already 25%–60% off.
  • Macy’s is offering a similar amount of promotions this week as it did last year during the same week. In the same week both years, the company had its Super Saturday sale offering discounts on select departments. Macy’s is starting its Black Friday doorbuster promotions by featuring 60% off women’s coats and an extra 25%–50% off clearance designer handbags.
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Executive Summary

  • The Chinese mobile payment market has grown rapidly and will reach ¥2 trillion (US$1.83 trillion) in 2016, up from ¥0.2 trillion (US$31.7 million) in 2012, according to iResearch.
  • E-wallets account for a 58% share of the mobile payment market in China—the highest percentage globally—indicating that mobile payments are an integral part of the Chinese shopping experience. In the US, the figure is just 15% and in the UK, it is 23%.
  • Mobile payment systems based on NFC and QR code technologies are most common in China.
  • New regulations and improved security will provide more clarity on the evolving mobile payment industry in China.
  • Retailers in China need to optimize their mobile payment strategies in order to increase sales and customer retention.
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Executive Summary

  • UK-based mixed-goods discount retailer B&M European Value Retail posted an 18.9% year-over-year increase in revenues in 1H17. Revenues of £1,106 million were in line with the consensus estimate.`fgv
  • The top line was driven by new store openings. UK comparable sales nudged up 0.2%.
  • Diluted EPS of 5.8 pence was slightly ahead of consensus of 5.6 pence.

Executive Summary

  • Tencent reported 3Q 2016 revenues of ¥40.4 billion, up 51.9% year over year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was ¥1.24, up 40.3% year over year.
  • Value-Added Services (VAS) revenue, which accounted for 69% of total revenue, increased by 36% year over year, mainly driven by player-versus-player and RPG genre smartphone games.
  • Advertising revenues were up 51% year over year and other revenue surged 348% year over year, driven by payment and cloud services.
  • The company plans to launch a new Weixin function called Mini Programs to ramp up investments in cloud and payment services to further improve user experience and user engagement.
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Executive Summary

This is the third report in our Millennials Series. In this report, we explore how millennials are reshaping the leisure sector.

  • Currently, millennials in the US, the UK and Europe spend less on leisure than older generations do, largely because they have lower incomes.
  • In the US, millennials underspend on travel relative to older age groups; this appears to be related, in part, to their unwillingness to take their full allocation of paid time off. We do not see a similar trend in Europe, where millennials tend to take more trips.
  • Across multiple countries, millennials show a willingness to spend on dining out. In the US, for example, they spend a greater proportion of their total leisure dollars on dining out than other age groups do. Millennials often find the social element of dining important, and they prefer to eat at restaurants offering a wide range of choices and lower price points.
  • Fitness and physical activity are important for this age group, with fitness classes, yoga and Pilates proving popular. Running, however, appears to be going out of fashion among millennials. In the US, millennials are the most stressed-out generation, and meditation is becoming more popular among them.

 

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Executive Summary

  • Gap reported 3Q16 revenues of $3.80 billion, down 1.5% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.86 billion. Reported adjusted EPS was $0.60, in line with the consensus estimate but down 5% from the year-ago period.
  • The overall merchandise margin improved by 220 basis points year over year, driven by Old Navy.
  • The company expects full-year adjusted EPS of $1.87–$1.92, consistent with the prior guidance. The company expects total inventory to be down in the low single digits year over year for 2016.
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Executive Summary

  • RevCascade is partnering with Crate and Barrel to enable the retailer to use drop shipping, a marketplace model that is the future of retail.
  • Zeekit is using augmented reality/virtual reality to enable consumers to virtually try on items from a selection that includes more than 5 million outfits from more than 200 brands.
  • The Story retail concept store features items from more than 200 brands and changes its store theme every four to eight weeks, changing its merchandise to match.
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Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported 3Q17 EPS of $0.98 versus the consensus estimate of $0.96.
  • Walmart US comps were up 1.2% versus consensus of 1.4% and guidance of 1.0%–1.5%. Traffic at Walmart US was up 0.7%, while average ticket increased by 0.5%. E-commerce added 50 basis points to comps, which was the channel’s largest contribution to date. The company experienced a favorable back-to-school season to start the quarter, although that strength was offset by unseasonably warm weather that negatively impacted apparel, and cold weather categories in particular.
  • The company’s 4Q17 guidance calls for EPS of $1.18–$1.33, driven by a comp increase of 1.0%–1.5% at both Walmart US and Sam’s Club, versus consensus of 1.5% and 1.0% comp growth, respectively.

Executive Summary

  • Ahold Delhaize reported 3Q16 pro forma revenues of €14,546 million, up 2.6% from €14,176 million in 3Q15, narrowly beating the consensus estimate of €14,516.98 million. The underlying EBITDA margin grew by 8 basis points and the underlying operating margin increased by 6bps. Underlying EPS fell 3.7% to €0.26, missing the consensus estimate of €0.28.
  • Synergies from the merger between Ahold and Delhaize earlier in 2016, new store openings and investments in price and cost efficiencies drove volume growth across all regions, but was slightly offset by a deflationary environment in the US.
  • Ahold Delhaize expects price pressure from the deflationary environment in the US to continue at its current levels. The company expects the pro forma underlying operating margin to be in line with the current year-to-date level of 3.6%.

Executive Summary

  • The US unemployment rate in October edged down to 4.9%, which was in line with the consensus estimate and lower than the September reading of 5.0%.
  • In the US, real PCE in September increased by 0.3% month over month, reflecting an increase in spending on durable goods.
  • The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 1.7% year over year for the month; the rate was still slightly below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
  • The gas price has been range-bound between US$2.15 and US$2.26 from October to the middle of November, and closed at US$2.187 on November 10, 2016.
  • In the US, advance estimates of October retail sales were US$465.9 billion, up by 0.8% month over month and 4.3% year over year.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” recaps the recent Singles’ Day shopping holiday and considers how Alibaba differentiates the shopping festival from conventional retail events.
  • Total US retail sales rose by 0.8% in October, suggesting a healthy profile for the US retail industry ahead of the holiday shopping season. Retailers are racing to promote their holiday sales after delaying their marketing efforts due to the presidential election.
  • French department store Printemps is introducing mobile payment service Alipay to draw more Chinese customers into its stores. The retailer expects to roll out Alipay to 18 stores by the end of the year.
  • Argentinian President Mauricio Macri has introduced policies that have unleashed a retail sales boom—not in Argentina, but in neighboring Chile. Since Macri removed exchange controls in December, Argentinians have begun crossing the border in masses to seek bargains in Chile, where three years of sluggish economic growth have weighed on retail sales.

 

Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 3Q16 revenues of ¥60.7 billion, which was slightly ahead of consensus estimates and a year-over-year increase of 38%. Net loss per ADS of ¥0.64 was ahead of consensus estimates for a net loss of ¥0.86.
  • Total GMV reached ¥158.8 billion (US$23.8 billion) in 3Q16, an increase of 43% year over year. General merchandise contributed over half of total GMV, up from 46% in the year-ago period.
  • The Board has approved a reorganization of JD Finance, including a possible spin-off, which would allow the online finance unit to expand its financial service operations in China.

 

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Executive Summary

Korean beauty brands have seen strong growth in sales volume, with exports reaching US$2.45 billion in 2015. Korean brands have had a growing influence on the global beauty market in recent years, leading to a K-Beauty trend.

In this report, we examine the factors that underpin the successful ascent of Korean beauty, with a focus on the product, process and technology innovations they have brought to the market. Here are our key takeaways.

  • Korean beauty brands have adopted a “fast fashion” product development cycle and gained recognition for innovative formulas, ingredients, manufacturing processes and packaging. However, the sophisticated and demanding customers in the local Korean market have also been one of the major drivers.
  • Korean beauty brands have embraced the digital transformation age and have taken advantage of the cultural influence of the Korean wave to come up with innovative marketing strategies that have driven growth.
  • Korean beauty brands were also fast to adopt in-store technologies, some of which are on par with other technology developed by international beauty brands, while others are ahead of the international market.
  • A number of Korean beauty startups have emerged that have brought Korean beauty products overseas with e-commerce, or created innovative beauty products with the latest technologies.
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