Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported 3Q17 revenues of €1,074.7 million, up 28.7% year over year, and in line with the consensus estimate of €1,074.0 million. Adjusted EBIT came in at €0.4 million versus the consensus estimate of €3.2 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 0.0%.
  • A one-million increase in the number active customers in 3Q17 and faster revenue growth in the DACH region helped drive up revenues in the quarter. At the same time, however, the company’s focus on investment in logistics and technology affected profitability.
  • Due to a weaker-than-expected operating profit in 3Q17, Zalando revised its expectations for FY17 adjusted EBIT margin, to just under 5.0%.

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Executive Summary

  • Kroger, the largest US grocery chain, announced plans to launch its own fashion brand in the fall of 2018. The line will offer apparel, including basics and fashion pieces, for children, teens and adults, and feature a modern, casual aesthetic.
  • Through the initiative, Kroger is aiming to diversify its revenue stream and attract more footfall to its stores. Traditional grocery chains are facing cutthroat competition from various retail formats and Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods Market in August 2017 has intensified competition in US food retailing.
  • Apparel retailing in the US is just as competitive as grocery, and Kroger’s private-label apparel will face steep competition from numerous established and growing value players. Kroger will compete most closely with mass merchants Walmart and Target as well as with Amazon.

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Executive Summary

In this report, we investigate Amazon’s offering, global expansion and the routes it has chosen to the markets it operates in. We provide timelines of key corporate announcements and events for each country in which Amazon operates.

  • Amazon’s Kindle store, e-commerce site and marketplace are available in 15 countries and Prime Video is available in 242 countries. Collectively, these services accounted for 90% of the company’s total revenues in 2016.
  • Amazon Web Services, its cloud technology services segment, is available in over 20 countries and accounted for 9% of its 2016 revenues.
  • Four of Amazon’s five largest acquisitions to date, by disclosed deal value, were in the US.
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Executive Summary

  • CVS Health reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.50, down 9.9% year over year and beating the $1.48 consensus estimate. Revenues were $46.2 billion, up 3.5% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • Pharmacy Services was the faster-growing segment, with revenues up 8.1% year over year, to $32.9 billion. Revenues in the Retail/LTC (Long-Term Care) segment declined by 2.7%, to $19.6 billion.
  • The company narrowed and raised the midpoint of its FY17 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.87–$5.91 from $5.83–$5.93 previously.

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Executive Summary

  • Alibaba reported 2Q FY18 revenues of ¥55.1 billion, up 61% year over year, the highest growth since its IPO. It also beat the consensus estimate by 26%. The company attributed the strong results to the robust revenue growth from its core commerce segment, as well as the Alibaba cloud business. The company is seeing early results from efforts to integrate online and offline retail under its New Retail strategy.
  • Core commerce revenues reached ¥46.5 billion, up 61% year over year. China retail and wholesale together contributed 75% of total revenues. International retail revenues were up 115% year over year, primarily driven by increasing revenues from AliExpress and Lazada.
  • Cloud computing sales reached ¥3.0 billion, up 99% year over year, driven by robust growth in paying customers, as well as an improving revenue mix to higher valued-added services.
  • Alibaba raised its FY18 revenue growth guidance range to 49%–53%, due to consolidation of Cainiao in the fiscal year. Excluding this, the company stated that it is well on track to delivering the prior guidance range of 45%–49% provided during the Investor Day.

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Executive Summary

  • L’Oréal reported comp growth of 5.1% in 3Q17.
  • The company’s 3Q17 revenues were down 0.9% as reported, but were in line with consensus expectations.
  • North America and France proved to be difficult markets in the quarter.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the upcoming retail holiday season, including Black Friday, and our expectations regarding promotional activity this holiday season.
  • This year, more Americans are expected to begin their holiday shopping in the middle of the season, or Thanksgiving weekend, as opposed to late in the season, or early December, a new survey from The NPD Group has found.
  • Less than one week after announcing its acquisition of Lord & Taylor’s flagship store in New York, office-space firm WeWork is reportedly set to pay around £600 million (US$796 million) for a large development in the City of London.
  • Smartphone shipments in India grew by 23% and crossed the
    40 million mark for the first time in the third quarter of 2017. That means India has overtaken the US in smartphone sales.

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Executive Summary

  • Apple reported fiscal 4Q17 EPS of $2.07, up 23.7% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $1.87. Revenues were $52.6 billion, up 12.2% year over year and beating the $50.7 billion consensus estimate.
  • The company sold 46.7 million iPhones in the quarter, above the consensus estimate of 46.4 million units. iPad units sold increased by 11% and Mac units sold increased by 10% year over year. Service revenue was $8.5 billion, up 34% year over year.
  • Apple guided for fiscal 1Q18 revenues of $84–$87 billion, in line with the consensus estimate of $85.2 billion. The margin and expense ranges the company provided result in an EPS range of $3.56–$3.80, in line with the consensus estimate of $3.75.

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Executive Summary

Last week, the FGRT team was in Shanghai to attend the grand launch of Explorium 2.0.

  • Explorium 2.0 is the Fung Group’s experimental platform in Shanghai dedicated to creating a smart supply-chain system, with the vision to strengthen China’s global economic competitiveness.
  • Building on the learnings from Explorium 1.0, and in alignment with the Fung Group’s strategic vision to build the supply chain of the future, the Explorium 2.0 ecosystem will be creating more business value with the help of a global supply chain and retail reach.
  • Explorium 2.0 will also be a platform empowering innovative startups that aim to boost national and even global supply-chain services. It has a strong focus on collaborative innovation with various partnerships, including Microsoft Accelerator, TechNode and the Beijing Institute of Fashion Technology.

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Executive Summary

  • Morrisons reported solid comp growth of 2.5% in 3Q18, with retail comps of 2.1%.
  • This represented a marginal slowdown from comp growth of 2.6% in the previous quarter.
  • Total sales ex fuel were up 2.3% in 3Q18.

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Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported that total full-price sales increased by 1.3% in 3Q17. Full-price sales in the Next Retail segment declined by 7.7% year over year, while Next Directory full-price sales increased by 13.2%.
  • Sales from new retail space accounted for a full-price sales increase of 1.2%.
  • The company has narrowed its FY17 revenue and profit guidance following the 3Q17 results. Next now expects the Next brand to generate total full-price sales growth of (1.75)%–1.25% for the year. The company expects FY17 profit before tax (PBT) of £692–£742 million, representing year-over-year growth of (12.4)%–(6.1)%.

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Executive Summary

  • Under Armour reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.22, versus consensus expectations of $0.19. Total revenues were $1.41 billion, below the $1.49 billion consensus estimate and down 4.5% year over year.
  • Wholesale revenues were down 13%, to $880 million, reflecting lower sales of athletic apparel, outdoor gear and basketball footwear in North America, which were partially offset by strength in the company’s International and direct-to-consumer businesses.
  • By product type, apparel revenues decreased by 8%, to $939 million, driven by declines in the outdoor, women’s training and youth subcategories. Footwear revenues were up 2%, to $285 million.
  • The company lowered its FY17 revenue guidance and now expects revenues to increase by low single digits, versus 9%–11% previously. Under Armour expects full-year revenues of $4.85–$5.04 billion, versus consensus of $5.19 billion. The company expects FY17 adjusted EPS of $0.18–$0.20, down from $0.37–$0.40 previously and below the $0.37 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • Huawei sees retailers adopting smart logistics platforms, automatic inventory management, autopayment options for shoppers and smart interactive selling methods.
  • RFID hardware such as robots and handheld readers that detect inventory, payment systems that make checkout faster and smarter security systems can eliminate or reduce friction points shoppers experience in physical stores.
  • Drivers of change in retail include the “now economy,” or consumers expecting immediacy; mobile commerce; the growth in marketplaces; digital and physical convergence; and the “value shift,” including the trend of consumers renting and reselling instead of buying.
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Executive Summary

This is our first report based on the ProsperChina Quarterly Survey—the largest online survey of consumers in China. Similar to our US Consumer Survey publications, we combine our own analysis with data on the preferences of thousands of Chinese shoppers surveyed by ProsperChina. In this report, we focus on the apparel market in China:

  • E-commerce is the preferred shopping method among Chinese consumers. According to ProsperChina data, Tmall and Taobao are the top-two online platforms, with 15% of surveyed adults preferring to purchase apparel on Tmall and 11% preferring to do so on Taobao.
  • Taobao is China’s largest online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platform. It has one of the lowest net promoter scores (NPS)—a measure of customer experience and a proxy that helps predict business growth—with a value of -32. Chinese consumers’ preference for branding and quality could be one of the reasons for the low score, as well as the fact that Taobao’s main customers fall into the lower-income group, which is harder to please.
  • Tmall is the largest business-to-consumer (B2C) platform in China and attracts high-value customers. It is the preferred e-commerce site among both the high-income group and people born in the 1980s.
  • Vipshop is China’sleading online discount retailer. It excels at engaging with loyal customers, thanks to its high-quality branded product offering.
  • JD.com is Alibaba’s largest rival in the Chinese e-commerce market. Although JD.com has gained market share in the apparel category, it is looking to boost its position further with a cross-border offering.
  • All the online pure plays appear to be making an effort to differentiate themselves by migrating from offering mass-market products to selling exclusive and niche products.
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Executive Summary

Many retailers are struggling to devise the perfect cross-channel experience for their customers—one that takes advantage of digitalization to provide targeted, just-in-time product or service information in an effective and seamless way.

The key internal capabilities needed to ensure a successful digital shopping experience are personalization, automation and the unique identification of the customer across shopping channels.

In this report, we:

  • Discuss how artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the way retailers operate by enabling them to analyze customer data in order to improve interactions with shoppers and predict demand for better inventory management.
  • Outline the applications of Internet of Things (IoT) technology for retailers and the advantages of adopting such technology in brick-and-mortar stores.
  • Illustrate how major industry players are adopting AI and IoT technologies to offer data-driven personalization and customer service and improve their physical stores.
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