Executive Summary

  • TJX Companies reported fiscal 3Q18 EPS of $1.00, versus $0.83 in the year-ago quarter and in line with the consensus estimate. Revenues were $8.76 billion, up 5.7% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate.
  • Comps were flat, below the 2.4% consensus estimate and compared with 5% in the year-ago quarter, with strength in HomeGoods and TJX Canada offset by softness at Marmaxx and TJX International.
  • The company expects full-year EPS to be at the high end of its $3.91–$3.93 guidance range on comps of 1%–2% before adjustment for currency and changes in accounting.

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Executive Summary

  • Home Depot reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.84, up 15% from the year-ago quarter and beating the $1.82 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $25.03 billion versus consensus expectations of $24.54 billion and were up 8.1% year over year.
  • Comps rose by 7.9% during the quarter, beating the 5.7% consensus estimate. US comps were up 7.7% in the quarter. Total comps were driven by a 5.1% increase in average ticket and a 2.7% increase in customer transactions.
  • The company raised its FY17 revenue guidance from 5.3% to 6.3% growth, implying revenues of $100.55 billion versus the $99.94 billion consensus estimate. Management expects full-year comp growth of 6.5%, up from 5.5% previously and above the 5.8% consensus estimate.
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Executive Summary

  • FGRT remains optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales in the US this year and we are forecasting sales growth of 3%–4%. We believe there could be upside to this estimate, given favorable economic conditions, such as an extremely low unemployment rate and benign changes in wages and prices for food and fuel.
  • Our 3%–4% growth estimate for holiday sales this year compares with 4.0% growth last year and an average increase of 2.6% over the last 10 years (based on figures from the National Retail Federation [NRF]). This year, the NRF is forecasting holiday sales growth of 3.6%–4.0%, while estimates from other industry groups average 3.8%.
  • Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas projects that holiday hiring will decline from a year ago, likely owing to store closures. However, the retailers that are reporting seasonal hiring figures expect to increase their holiday hiring by 4.0% this year.
  • E-commerce is expected to continue to gain share of total sales over the holiday season. In the second quarter of 2017, online sales grew by 16.2% and accounted for 8.9% of total retail sales, according to the US Census Bureau.
  • The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) predicts that 68% of consumers will buy electronics this holiday season and that total holiday spending on electronics will increase 15.0%. The top holiday tech gifts include TVs, laptops, smartphones, tablets and videogame consoles.
  • Other popular holiday tech gifts are likely to include the just launched iPhone X (which uses wireless chargers), Apple AirPods, a wide range of Amazon Echo devices, 4K HD TVs and set-top boxes.
  • The calendar this holiday season is favorable for retail sales, as there is one more shopping day between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year than there was last year and Super Saturday falls two days before Christmas this year.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

Tracee Ellis Ross, the Golden Globe-winning lead actress from the ABC hit comedy series Black-ish, launched her own clothing brand and holiday capsule collection, Tracee Ellis Ross for JCPenney, on November 12.

  • Ross designed a 45-piece capsule collection for JCPenney in partnership with Li & Fung. The collection includes women’s apparel and accessories as well as home décor items.
  • Ross said that it was her lifelong dream to design a line of clothing that is accessible to everyone.
  • The collection is available online and in stores through the end of the year.
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Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 3Q17 revenues of ¥83.7 billion, up 39.2% year over year and in line with the consensus. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was ¥1.52, growing by 361% year over year, beating the consensus of ¥0.59.
  • Direct sales revenues reached ¥76.5 billion, up 38% year over year, driven by home appliances and FMCG. Services and others revenues reached ¥7.3 billion, up 46% year over year, thanks to improved brand engagement and better monetization of the platform.
  • Guidance for 4Q17 calls for revenues of ¥107.0–¥110.0 billion, up 35%–39% year over year, roughly in line with the consensus of ¥108.1 billion. Full-year 2017 net margin guidance was maintained at 0.5%–1.5%. Management was pleased by the success of the November 11 shopping promotions and remained confident that net margins will continue to expand in the coming years.

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Executive Summary

  • JCPenney reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $(0.33), beating the $(0.41) consensus estimate but down from $(0.21) in the year-ago quarter. Revenues were $2.81 billion, down 1.8% year over year but beating the $2.76 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps increased by 1.7%, beating guidance of 0.6%–0.8%. Home, Sephora, footwear and handbags, women’s specialty, and salon were the top-performing divisions during the quarter.
  • The company reaffirmed its 2017 adjusted EPS guidance of $0.02–$0.08 based on expected comps of (1)%–0%.

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Executive Summary

  • There is an opportunity for personalization on the path to purchase.
  • Unlocking data is a competitive advantage in terms of creating emotional connections with customers.
  • Consumers’ increasing willingness to share information and companies’ personalization efforts will allow for millions of microbrands.
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Executive Summary

  • Adidas reported that 3Q17 revenue was up 12.0% year over year on a currency-neutral basis and up 8.7% year over year in euro terms, to €5,677 million, which was below the consensus estimate of €5,910 million.
  • EBIT grew by 34.6% year over year, to €795 million, above the consensus estimate of €755 million. Net income from continuing operations grew by 34.8%, to €549 million, above the consensus estimate of €513 million.
  • All regions with the exception of Russia/CIS saw revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis and performance was strong in Greater China and North America.
  • Adidas confirmed its guidance for FY17. The company expects its currency-neutral sales to grow by 17%–19%, its operating profit to increase by 24%–26% and its net income from continuing operations to grow by 26%–28%.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses a potential entry into the pharmacy business by Amazon
  • This holiday season, retailers are ordering less for US shoppers. With foot traffic at their stores in decline, department stores that normally would have stocked up for the biggest shopping season of the year months ago are still in the process of placing new
  • In October, UK retail sales fell by 1.0% year over year on a comparable basis. Total sales edged up 0.2%, well below the three-month and 12-month averages of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.
  • Zalando has added a personalization tool to its website that will allow customers to personalize shoes from sports brand Adidas. The tool is called Miadidas and is currently available only to customers in Germany.

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Executive Summary

  • Kohl’s reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.70, below the $0.72 consensus estimate and down 12.5% from the year-ago period. Total revenues were $4.33 billion, up slightly year over year and beating the $4.30 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comparable-store sales were up 0.1% year over year, ahead of the 0.7% decline analysts had expected and the prior-year quarter’s 1.7% decline. Comps benefited from higher average transaction value, driven by an increase in average unit retail that was partially offset by a decrease in units per transaction.
  • The company narrowed its FY17 adjusted EPS guidance upward and now expects adjusted EPS of $3.60–$3.80 versus $3.50–$3.80 previously and the $3.76 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • Nordstrom reported 3Q17 EPS of $0.67, ahead of the $0.63 consensus estimate and compared with a loss of $0.06 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues were $3.63 billion, up 2.5% year over year and slightly above the $3.58 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps declined by 0.9%, missing the consensus estimate of a 0.3% decline. Comps for Nordstrom full-line stores declined by 4.9%, while comps for Nordstrom.com were up 7.5%.
  • The company reiterated its full-year guidance of 4% net sales growth and flat comps, but narrowed its EPS guidance downward to $2.85–$2.95 from $$2.85–$3.00 previously.

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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s reported adjusted 3Q17 EPS of $0.23, up 35.3% year over year and beating the $0.19 consensus estimate. Revenues were $5.28 billion, down 6.1% year over year and roughly in line with the $5.31 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps (on an owned basis) declined by 4.0%, below the consensus estimate of a 2.8% decline. Comps on an owned-and-licensed basis declined by 3.6%.
  • Macy’s reaffirmed its full-year sales and EPS guidance. The company expects sales to decline by 3.2%–4.3% and expects adjusted EPS of $3.37–$3.62 versus the $3.32 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

The Macy’s flagship in Herald’s Square has gone digital, with more than 1,000 square feet dedicated to a Samsung smart product experience area, the first of its kind in the country, according to Samsung’s representatives.

  • The Samsung experience area was launched on November 1, just in time for holiday shopping. It is located on the main floor of Macy’s in the men’s department, facing the street.
  • The area features Samsung’s technologies in smart home products such as home audio devices and family hub refrigerators, entertainment devices such as virtual reality (VR) headsets and TVs, and tablets and watches.
  • Combining retail and entertainment, the VR headsets are bringing traffic into the store, with 200–300 customers trying the VR experience each day.

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Executive Summary

    • Marks & Spencer (M&S) reported group revenues of £5.13 billion for the first half of fiscal 2018, up 2.6% year over year and marginally ahead of the consensus estimate.
    • The long-struggling UK Clothing and Home segment posted sequentially strengthening comparable sales growth. Comps of (0.7)% in 1H18 were split as (1.2)% in 1Q18 and (0.1)% in 2Q18.
    • UK Food comps remained weak relative to an inflationary grocery market and historical segment performance. Comps were down 0.1% in 1H18, declining by 0.1% in both 1Q18 and 2Q18.
    • The company announced a new five-year transformation plan that accelerates its store closure and resizing program.

 

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Executive Summary

  • Associated British Foods reported FY17 results for the 52 weeks ended September 16, 2017. This report focuses on results for Primark, the company’s retail division.
  • Primark reported a 19% year-over-year increase in FY17 revenues to £7,053 million, ora 12% year-over-year increase in constant currency. During the year, the company increased its selling space by 12.3%. UK sales increased by 10% year over year, and Primark managed to significantly increase its total share of the UK apparel market.
  • Primark’s FY17 operating profit increased by 3% at constant exchange rates and the operating profit margin contracted by 120 basis points year over year to 10.4%.

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