Executive Summary

Zara and H&M are often spoken of in the same breath—as the fast-fashion invaders that are stealing market share away from mass-market rivals in a number of countries. Yet, despite the similarities, we see some key distinctions between H&M and Zara’s parent company Inditex.

  • H&M is largely not a fast-fashion retailer: according to a number of reports, H&M produces just 20% of its clothing ranges in-season, in contrast to 60% at Inditex. Similarly, only 32% of factories that H&M uses are located in or close to Europe, compared to 59% of Inditex’s factories.
  • H&M’s revenue growth is being supported entirely by new store openings, and its sales-per-store growth is negative. Inditex continues to report positive comparable sales growth and sales-per-store growth.
  • We see these distinctions as related. H&M’s product offering is strongly focused on basic apparel items, and this provides it with less differentiation.
  • In the context of heightened fast-fashion competition, including from ultrafast-fashion retailers such as Boohoo.com and Missguided, we think H&M will continue to find it tough to maintain underlying sales growth.
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Executive Summary

Artificial Intelligence (AI): Why It’s Important for CPG Companies
  • The Digital Transformation in Retail
  • What Is AI and How Is It Revolutionizing Retail?
  • A Look to China, a New Leader in AI
  • How CPG Companies Can Use AI
  • Challenges in Adopting AI
  • Where and How to Start
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Executive Summary

  • Ocado has signed a deal with Groupe Casino to support Casino’s e-commerce service, beginning with Monoprix.fr.
  • The deal will give Casino access to Ocado’s end-to-end solution, which includes an automated warehouse, front-end website functionality, last-mile routing management and real-time implementation.
  • The agreement includes the development of a customer fulfillment center in France. The construction and launch of the facility is expected to take at least two years.
  • Casino paid Ocado upfront fees upon signing and will continue to pay Ocado through the development of the fulfillment center, after which Ocado will charge Casino based on utilization of the capacity within the facility.

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Executive Summary

Singles’ Day has grown to become the single-most significant online shopping day in China and the biggest shopping event globally. Following our Singles’ Day Shopping Festival 2017 preview survey in October, which detailed consumer sentiment and buying preferences ahead of the 11.11 event, we conducted a post-Singles’ Day survey to gauge shoppers’ satisfaction with key retailers in China. We detail our key findings in this report.

  • Alibaba’s two main marketplaces Taobao and Tmall continue to dominate Singles’ Day sales, but JD.com is gaining traction. While nearly every survey respondent said they shopped on Taobao or Tmall during this year’s 11.11 event—with an impressive 74% saying most of their money was spent at either one of these marketplaces—it is interesting to note how quickly JD.com is making its mark. Some 65% of survey participants said they bought on JD.com, with 19% saying they spent the most there this year.
  • In terms of overall customer satisfaction, Tmall and JD.com scored well, while Taobao lags behind. Tmall tops the league with a Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 30, higher than both JD.com at 24 and Vipshop at 9. Taobao, however, fared poorly with an NPS in negative territory, at (7).
  • Survey participants scored Tmall and JD.com well on product quality, which, according to our analysis, is the ultimate driver of customer satisfaction. In terms of
    delivery speed, JD.com outperformed both Tmall and Taobao, however, our survey results show that this factor has less impact on customer satisfaction.

Click here to read more Coresight coverage of Singles Day over the last few years.

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Executive Summary

  • The global face mask market was worth $5.7 billion in 2016. It is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2016 to 2021, to reach $6.3 billion in 2017 and $8.8 billion by 2021, according to data from Euromonitor International.
  • China is by far the largest market in this category. Valued at $2.7 billion in 2016, it represents a significant 47.6% of the global market. Despite its sheer size, the Chinese market is estimated to see double-digit growth through to 2021, representing a CAGR of 11.7%, according to Euromonitor International.
  • Although China represents almost half of the global face mask market, international brands have failed to compete with emerging Chinese brands that have grown to become the top-selling brands in the country in less than five years.
  • One way beauty brands can capture market share in the Chinese beauty mask market is through innovative product offerings such as face masks with ingredients that combat pollutants’ damage to skin, which is a primary concern among beauty consumers.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the imminent start of the official holiday shopping season this weekend.
  • Turkey is just one tradition for the Thanksgiving holiday; many US stores planned to open on Thursday night for shoppers looking to get a jump on Black Friday sales.
  • UK retail sales grew by 2.6% year over year in October. Total growth softened from 4.7% in September, largely due to unusually warm weather in October.
  • Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is continuing its expansion into offline retail, spending $2.88 billion to acquire a 36.16% stake in one of China’s most prolific operators of hypermarket stores, Sun Art Retail Group.

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Executive Summary

  • Retailers can deploy near-field communication (NFC) tags in stores to better engage with shoppers on-site. The tags can be used to send customers product information and links and to create a more personalized shopping experience.
  • Retailers can also think like brands when incorporating NFC technology. For example, they can follow in the footsteps of several innovative brands that already embed NFC technology into their own products in order to better engage with shoppers postsale. These companies use the technology to send shoppers branded content or practical information throughout the product’s lifecycle.
  • Survey data show that US consumers tend to prefer NFC tags over competing technologies such as QR codes and beacons, and that they appreciate the speed, convenience and control that NFC tags provide them while shopping.
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Executive Summary

  • Ross Stores reported 3Q17 EPS of $0.72, up 16.1% year over year and beating the $0.67 consensus estimate. Revenues rose by 7.8% from the year-ago quarter, to $3.33 billion, ahead of the $3.26 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comp sales increased by 4% on top of a 4% gain in the year-ago quarter and ahead of the 2% consensus estimate.
  • The company guided for 4Q17 comp growth of 2%–3% versus 1%–2% previously and the consensus estimate of 2.5%. Ross Stores raised its full-year EPS guidance range to $3.24–$3.28 from $3.16–$3.23 previously. The consensus estimate calls for full-year EPS of $3.23.

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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • The store as a temporary installation
  • The store as a place for entertainment
  • The store as a factory
  • The store as an Airbnb
  • The store as a curated multi-brand marketplace
  • The store as a place to gather
  • The store as part of the last-mile solution
  • The store as a checkout-less experience
  • The store as a home to an indoor farm
  • The tenant of the future
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Executive Summary

  • Tencent reported 3Q17 revenues of ¥65.2 billion, up 61% year over year, and beat the consensus estimate of ¥61.0 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was ¥1.79, an increase of 45% year over year. The solid results were driven largely by gaming and online advertising.
  • Value-added services (VAS) revenues, which accounted for 65% of total revenues, increased by 50.6% year over year, driven mainly by strong revenue growth in both PC and smartphone games. Online advertising revenues were up 48.2% year over year, thanks to strong growth from mobile media platforms such as Tencent Video and higher advertising revenues derived from Weixin. Other revenues surged 142.6% year over year, driven by mobile payment and cloud services. Management emphasized how its new initiative “AI in all” can help improve its existing business.
  • FGRT views this better-than-expected result as positive, and expects this momentum to continue driving Tencent’s growth. Tencent’s new strategy of investing in mobile payment, cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI) should enable it to strengthen its market-leading position in these areas.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the future of automated stores and includes highlights from the FGRT team’s recent visit to one of Alibaba’s Hema automated grocery stores in China.
  • Some 30% of US desktop transactions are now preceded by a click on a mobile device, and advertisers see 68% of sales taking place on mobile devices, according to new data from Criteo.
  • Amazon has partnered with British grocer Morrisons to enable customers to order groceries by voice command through the online retailer’s artificial intelligence–powered Echo and Tap devices.
  • Amazon has denied reports that it is withdrawing its Amazon Web Services (AWS) business from China, but the firm did admit that it has been forced to sell some physical assets in order to comply with Chinese law.

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Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported fiscal 3Q18 adjusted EPS of $1.00, up 2% from the year-ago quarter and beating the $0.97 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $123.2 billion, up 4.2% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $121.05 billion.
  • US comps were up 2.7%, versus consensus of 1.9% and guidance of 1.5%–2.0%, driven by a 1.5% traffic increase and a 1.2% increase in average ticket. US e-commerce sales and gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 50% and 54%, respectively.
  • The company raised its FY18 adjusted EPS guidance range to $4.38–$4.46 versus $4.30–$4.40 previously and the consensus estimate of $4.37. The company expects US comp growth of 1.5%–2.0% versus the 1.7% consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • 3Q17 Retail Update
  • 2017 Holiday Preview

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

  • Target reported 3Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.91, down 12.6% from $1.04 in the year-ago quarter but ahead of the $0.86 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $16.67 billion, up 1.4% year over year and ahead of the $16.60 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps were 0.9%, beating the 0.4% consensus estimate.
  • The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance range to $4.40–$4.60 from $4.34–$4.54 previously.

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Executive Summary

In our three-part Retail Reworked series, we consider changes in spending trends, consumer demand and channel adoption, with a focus on the impact that digital channels and services are having on retail. In this first report, we quantify some of the competing segments that are pulling spending away from retailers in the US.

We estimate that US consumers will spend a total of around $36.5 billion in 2017 on a range of digitally enabled segments that compete with conventional retail. These include:

  • Online meal-kit providers, which we estimate will attract US spending of around $2.7 billion in 2017.
  • Apparel resale websites, which we estimate will capture around $2.3 billion of spending this year.
  • Beauty and personal care subscription services, on which American shoppers will spend about $1.5 billion this year, we estimate.
  • Online apparel rental services, which we expect to capture an estimated $500 million of US spending in 2017.
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