Which Retailers Would Gain from a Sears Closure?

Executive Summary

Sears Holdings has filed for bankruptcy. In this report, we consider which major retailers could gain sales should all Sears department stores ultimately close.

• Walmart and Target would be in strong positions to pick up sales: Coresight Research’s consumer data shows high apparel cross-shopping rates at Walmart and Target among Sears shoppers, and over half of Sears stores have a Walmart or Target store nearby.
• Among the department stores, JCPenney looks best placed to capture shopper dollars in the event of a total Sears closure. JCPenney sees high rates of apparel cross-shopping with Sears, it registers the highest geographical overlap with Sears stores, and its position is bolstered by the recent strengthening of its appliances offering.
• Home Depot and Lowe’s would likely capture some share of appliance sales should Sears close down: 40% or more of Sears stores have such rivals within two miles. Warehouse clubs Costco and Sam’s Club see a much lower geographical overlap with Sears stores.