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Weekly Insights Dec 31, 2015

Retail’s best performers continue to be concentrated at the high and low-ends, while the middle market remains pinched, as illustrated by the Weinswig Hourglass Model. We expect 2016 to remain another “hourglass year”, with the midmarket segment squeezed by discount chain expansion and a reduction in discretionary spending.

Retail Loyalty Programs: A Global View

Many retailers offer loyalty programs to attract new customers and satisfy loyal ones. With rewards ranging from coupon offers to regular savings to exclusive, personalized experiences, loyalty programs provide perks and value to members.

2015 Holiday Homestretch

Cyber Monday leads the weekend as the biggest day for sales with
$3.1 billion in sales
2. Black Friday performance suggests consumer is in good shape;
Apparel category remains under pressure while deals focused
around electronics
3. Retailers generally pleased with their Black Friday performances
despite weak traffic
4. Black Friday metrics favor e-commerce as estimates suggest store
sales to be flat to down slightly with online sales up ~10%

Weekly Insights Dec 4, 2015

Over the last two weeks, our team covered early store openings on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Giving Tuesday, which represent more than US $11 billion of sales, up 17% from last year. Mobile accounted for more than half of shopping visits and nearly a third of sales.

THE BILLION-DOLLAR THREAT TO US RIVALS

Ultralow-­‐price fashion retailer Primark entered the US market on September 10, 2015, with plans announced for an initial eight stores in the country. We are optimistic about Primark’s chances of success in the US, given American shoppers’ reluctance to spend big on fashion.

Disruptors – Physical and Digital

– CVS Health: 37% of 2014 capex was on technology and
other corporate initiatives
– Nordstrom: 35% of 2014 capex; plans to spend $4.3 billion
(5% of sales) over next five years
– Walmart: 29% of 2014 US capex; spending “$1.2–$1.5
billion in e-commerce websites and mobile commerce
applications”
– Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards interconnected
retail and technology