Executive Summary

  • TJX Companies reported fiscal 1Q18 EPS of $0.82 versus the consensus estimate of $0.79.
  • Total revenues increased by 3%, to $7.8 billion. Comps increased by 1.0% versus expectations for a 1.6% increase. Marmaxx comps were flat, below expectations of 1.5%, while HomeGoods comps were up 3.0%, above expectations of 2.4%. TJX Canada comps were up 3.0% and TJX Europe comps were flat in the quarter.
  • Management commented that the second quarter is off to a solid start. For the second quarter, the company expects EPS of $0.81–$0.83 versus consensus of $0.92 and compared with $0.84 in the year-ago period. The guidance assumes that foreign exchange will negatively impact EPS growth by 4% and that wage increases will negatively impact EPS by another 2%. Guidance also assumes a comp increase of 1%–2%.

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Executive Summary

  • Home Depot reported 1Q17 EPS of $1.67, up 16% from the year-ago quarter and beating the $1.61 consensus estimate. Total revenues for 1Q17 were $23.89 billion versus expectations of $23.73 billion, and were up 4.9% year over year.
  • Comps rose by 5.5% during the quarter, beating the 4.4% consensus estimate. US comps were up 6% in the quarter. Total comps were driven by a 3.9% increase in average ticket and a 1.5% increase in customer transactions. All merchandising departments posted positive comps, led by appliances, lumber and flooring, all of which posted double-digit comp growth.
  • Management reiterated its FY17 guidance for net revenues to increase by 4.6%, to about $96.16 billion. The company expects full-year comp growth of 4.6%. The consensus estimate calls for sales growth of 4.8% and comp growth of 4.8%. Home Depot raised its FY17 EPS guidance to $7.15 from $7.13, citing expected stock repurchases of $5 billion; consensus calls for full-year EPS of $7.20.

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Executive Summary

  • The rapid development of new retail technologies across the online, mobile and in-store channels, along with disruption from startups, is dramatically shifting consumers’ expectations and behaviors.
  • Industry leaders are realizing that partnerships with relevant startups and other players offer a range of benefits, including accelerating the speed of innovation, providing fresh sources of ideas and supporting the establishment of a culture of innovation.
  • According to our findings, the top areas of focus for corporate innovation centers are mobile technology, data analytics, the Internet of Things (IoT), payment technologies, robotics, virtual and augmented reality, and 3D printing.
  • Asia has become a major region in terms of innovation, spurred by government initiatives and the availability of talent. Key Asian innovation hubs include Singapore, Bangalore, Shanghai and Tokyo. Israel, long known as a hub
    of cybersecurity talent, has developed over recent years into one of the world’s top locations for retail tech innovation, too.
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Executive Summary

  • Urban Outfitters reported fiscal 1Q18 EPS of $0.10, below the consensus estimate of $0.16. Total revenues were $761.2 million, below the consensus estimate of $769.8 million and down 0.2% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Total comps, including e-commerce, decreased by 3.1% versus the consensus estimate of a 2.5% decline. By brand, comps increased by 1.5% at Free People, decreased by 3.1% at Urban Outfitters and decreased by 4.4% at Anthropologie. Retail comps were driven by double-digit growth in the company’s direct-to-consumer channel, which was offset by negative store comps. Net sales for the wholesale segment increased by 14%.
  • Management noted that the gross margin could see a larger decline in the second quarter than it did in the first quarter, reflecting projected markdowns. The company also believes that SG&A could grow by 2% in the second quarter and by 1% in the full fiscal year. Regarding store space, management commented that while store count may decrease in North America, overall square footage may grow.

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Executive Summary

  • With no apparent competitors in sight, WeChat, the flagship mobile instant-messaging platform and social network of internet services giant Tencent, holds court in China. Coupled with differentiable features, WeChat is on track to continue increasing user engagement and retention.
  • Within the retail world, WeChat has been, and continues to be, a major source of disruption—bridging social media and e-commerce.
  • In this report, we highlight three key product differentiators that have led to WeChat’s dominance in China: i) in social media—Moments and Official Accounts; ii) in mobile payments—WeChat Pay; and iii) in mini apps—its Mini Programs.
  • Despite its dominance, WeChat could face challenges in expanding further: decelerating growth of its user base in China and the capacity threshold of its app.

 

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Executive Summary

  • JCPenney reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.06 versus the consensus estimate of $(0.21).
  • Total revenues decreased by 3.7%, to $2.7 billion from $2.8 billion in the year-ago quarter. Comps were down 3.5% versus consensus of (0.6)%. Comps improved in March and April by 600 basis points compared with a “very challenging” February, according to the company. Management also noted an improvement in trends in the women’s apparel category, particularly in active apparel and dresses.
  • Management reiterated its prior guidance for the full year. The company expects adjusted EPS of $0.40–$0.65 versus the consensus estimate of $0.65. The company expects full-year comps of (1)%–1%, a gross margin increase of 20–40 basis points and SG&A to be down 1%–2% on a dollar basis versus FY16.

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Executive Summary

Omnichannel Initiatives

  • Scan-and-go (app payment capabilities)
  • Trialing an “automated pickup machine”
  • Smaller store formats for grocery pick-up
  • Adding around 1 million SKUs per month, mainly through its marketplace
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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.24 compared with the consensus estimate of $0.36.
  • Total revenues declined by 7.5% for the period, to $5.34 billion, which reflects the store closures announced in 2016. Comps were down 5.2%, and down 4.6% on an owned-plus-licensed basis.
  • Management reiterated its prior full-year guidance. The company is projecting EPS of $3.37–$62 versus consensus of $3.34. The company expects revenues to be down 3.2%–4.3% and comps to be down 2.2%–3.3% (and down 2.0%–3.0% on an owned-plus-licensed basis).

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Executive Summary

  • Kohl’s reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS (excluding nonrecurring items) of $0.37, up 23.4% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $0.29. Revenues were $3.84 billion, down 3.2% year over year and slightly below the $3.91 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comparable-store sales were (2.7)%, below the (1.2)% consensus estimate.
  • The company did not update its prior EPS guidance of $3.50–$3.80 for FY17.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses Amazon’s entry into Australia, previewing an upcoming Deep Dive
  • Adding to the e-commerce battle among retailers to woo customers with special deals, Amazon is now making it even easier, and $10 cheaper, for shoppers to qualify for free shipping.
  • Target plans to test a next-day home-delivery service. Its Target Restock pilot service rolls out this summer in the Minneapolis area and will offer delivery of “thousands of household essentials” for an unspecified flat fee.
  • Alipay, owned by Jack Ma’s Ant Financial, reached a deal that will let its users shop at 4 million US merchants served by payments processor First Data. The rollout will begin with businesses that use First Data’s Clover products.

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Executive Summary

  • DIA reported 1Q17 net sales of €2,096.0 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of €2,161.8 million and up by 6.2% as reported (up 2.2% excluding currency effects). Strong performance in emerging markets drove sales.
  • The adjusted EBITDA margin softened by 11 basis points and net profit fell by 9.8% as reported (down 10.1% at constant currency).
  • DIA reaffirmed its targets for FY17.

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Executive Summary

This is the fifth report in our series on European startup capitals. Stockholm is a leading startup hub globally and one of the top European centers for startup development. The main factors that make Stockholm the second-most-valuable startup hub in Europe include:

  • Access to capital: Startups in Stockholm have better access to crowdfunding than any other European startup hub and enjoy some of the best availability of early-stage funding.
  • Startup experience/knowledge spillover/skills and digital infrastructure: The presence of successful startups, top academic institutions, a skilled workforce and one of the world’s most advanced digital infrastructures all contribute to create a very favorable startup ecosystem in which knowledge and experience sharing is encouraged.
  • Market reach: The international orientation of Stockholm based startups facilitates their overseas reach.
  • Digital infrastructure: Companies in Stockholm operate in one of the most digitally advanced countries in the world.
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Executive Summary

This report is the first in a brief series that looks at international retailers’ operations in India. It focuses on international apparel retailers’ entry to India and considers their domestic counterparts.

  • Underpinned by raised inflation levels, clothing and footwear is a fast-growing category in India.
  • The Indian government provides five methods of entry into the Indian market for international apparel retailers: licensing, franchising, wholly owned subsidiary, joint venture (JV) or limited liability partnership.
  • The JV route was the preferred option for international retailers from the time the Indian government undertook economic liberalization reforms in the early 1990s until 2012, when the government removed the cap on foreign direct investment (FDI) in single-brand retail. H&M was the first international apparel retailer to establish a wholly owned subsidiary in India.
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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • Spring Retail Update
  • Top Five Insights from Recent Conferences
  • Macro Backdrop Update; The Consumer Still in Good Shape
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Executive Summary

  • The merger of Ahold Delhaize in mid-2016 prompted the company’s reported leap in revenues: Ahold Delhaize reported 1Q17 revenues of €15,870 million, up by 61.4% from 1Q16 at constant exchange rates (+65.1% in reported currency).
  • Pro forma 1Q17 revenues, which reflect the entirety of the merged group, were €15,766 million, up by 0.6% at constant currency (+2.9% in reported currency) and slightly below the consensus estimate of €15,853 million.
  • The gross margin slid by 92 basis points and SG&A as a percentage of sales dropped by 101 bps, while the operating margin climbed by 9 bps. Diluted EPS jumped by 12.0% to €0.28 during the quarter, slightly above the consensus estimate of €0.27.
  • Ahold Delhaize upheld its target of realizing €220 million in net synergies in FY17, of which €56 million has already been realized year-to-date.

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