Executive Summary

  • The UK retail real estate sector is facing ongoing headwinds, including the rapid rise of e-commerce, cutthroat competition and softening apparel sales.
  • However, the UK has seen few retail bankruptcies and store closures. Store footfall in the country is declining, but vacancy rates remain low and rent levels indicate that the retail real estate sector is still relatively healthy.
  • Retailer landlords continue to add leisure offerings in retail formats, as a strong hospitality/entertainment offering is a meaningful driver of footfall and dwell times.
  • E-commerce will continue to have an effect on the widening gap in rental growth between prime and secondary locations. Many retailers will choose to have smaller store footprints and focus on larger flagship stores in the most desirable areas and spaces.
  • Rising UK property taxes in certain locations will act as a disincentive to operating physical stores versus online stores. New retail space resulting from shopping-center store openings and revamps will reach a four-year high in 2017, posing a risk of excess supply in the face of waning demand.
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Executive Summary

  • Wayfair reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of $(0.48), ahead of the $(0.57) consensus estimate, but down from $(0.36) in the year-ago period. Total revenues were $960.8 million, up 28.6% year over year and above the consensus estimate of $934.8 million.
  • Orders delivered in 1Q17 totaled 4.2 million, below the consensus estimate of 4.3 million but above the year-ago total of 3.0 million. Active customers in the direct retail business totaled 8.9 million, up 45.8% year over year and above the consensus estimate of 8.6 million.
  • For 2Q17, Wayfair expects revenue of $1.03–$1.06 billion, above the $989 million consensus estimate. Additionally, the company expects direct retail revenue to grow at a rate of approximately 34%–37% year over year, to $1.02–$1.04 billion, above the $972 million consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported 1Q17 group revenue of €980.2 million, up 23.1% on a reported basis and above the consensus estimate of €978.8 million. The company’s gross margin contracted by 50 basis points year over year, to 41.4%, and its adjusted EBIT margin declined to 2.1%. Diluted EPS remained stable at €0.02 in 1Q17.
  • A growing customer base that ordered more often translated into strong revenue growth. Continued investment in infrastructure and the customer and brand propositions translated into a decrease in gross margin and operating margin.
  • Zalando reiterated its FY17 revenue guidance of 20.0%–25.0% growth. The company expects an adjusted EBIT margin of 5.0%–6.0% for the full year.

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Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 1Q17 revenues of ¥76.23 billion, up 41% year over year, and beating the consensus estimate of ¥73.60 billion. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was ¥1.01, compared to a net loss per ADS of ¥0.15 for 1Q16.
  • Total gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached ¥184.1 billion in 1Q17, an increase of 42% year over year. General merchandise contributed 50% of total GMV, up from 48% in the year-ago period.
  • On March 1, JD.com announced the establishment of JD Logistics, a new business group under the JD.com umbrella. The move allows the logistics arm to be run more autonomously, and together with its strong logistics capability, should help it to better serve third-party business partners.
  • JD.com anticipates the reorganization of JD Finance to be completed within 2Q17. It will receive approximately ¥14.3 billion in cash and profit-sharing rights for 40% of the future pretax profit of JD Finance once the deal is closed.

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Executive Summary

  • H&M reported that total sales rose by 7% year over year in local currencies in April 2017. This compares to growth of 6% in March.
  • The total number of stores grew by 10.9% year over year to 4,474, as of April 30.
  • Sales growth lagged store growth by 388 basis points in April, contracting from the 473-bps difference in March.

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Executive Summary

  • Coach announced on Monday, May 8, that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Kate Spade for $2.4 billion in an all-cash transaction. The transaction is equal to $18.50 per share, a 27.5% premium to the unaffected closing price of Kate Spade shares on December 27, 2016.
  • The acquisition is part of Coach’s plan to become a multibrand, modern luxury lifestyle company; aside from the Coach brand, it also owns the Stuart Weitzman brand. The company will operate Kate Spade separately from the Coach brand, as it does Stuart Weitzman.
  • Coach management believes that Kate Spade’s strong appeal among millennials, which constitute about 60% of the brand’s customers, will help the company drive future growth.

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Executive Summary

Lidl will open its first US stores in the summer of 2017 across three eastern states: North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. The company is hiring for store-based roles in a total of 38 towns in eight eastern states. This report provides an update on what we know so far, and provides some answers to four questions:

  • What do we estimate Lidl’s US sales will be? We see an approximate 1-2-4 step-up in Lidl’s US sales: roughly $1 billion in 2018, $2 billion in 2019 and $4 billion in 2020. These figures presume that Lidl will open just under 100 stores per year in the US.
  • What headwinds and tailwinds could Lidl face? Lidl could face headwinds in terms of compromising the quality of store locations in a race for space and diverging from its traditional small-store format. Tailwinds could include increased consumer demand for fresh and natural foods and millennials’ frugality when it comes to shopping for groceries.
  • Which incumbent retailers look to be most at risk? Weis Markets and Ingles Markets have the greatest exposure in the eight states in which Lidl is hiring.
  • What will Lidl’s US offering look like? We expect Lidl to offer more fresh foods and a substantial general merchandise selection in its US stores, and to push the US provenance of many of the products it offers.
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Executive Summary

  • Adidas reported 1Q17 net sales of €5,671 million, up 18.9% on a reported basis and up 16.0% on a constant-currency basis. Net sales for the quarter were above the consensus estimate of €5,387 million. Revenue growth was underpinned by strong performance in North America and Greater China.
  • The company’s gross margin contracted by 20 basis points year over year, to 49.2%, due to foreign-exchange headwinds. Underlying EPS of €2.23 represented an expansion of 5% year over year and beat the consensus estimate.
  • For FY17, Adidas confirmed its guidance for group sales to increase by 11.0%–13.0% at constant currency. The company expects a full-year gross margin of 49.1% and an operating margin of 8.3%–8.5%. The company expects net income to grow by 18.0%–20.0% year over year, to approximately €1.225 billion.

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Executive Summary

  • The UK’s fourth-biggest grocery retailer, Morrisons, reported comps ex fuel of 3.4% for 1Q18.
  • Total sales ex fuel were up 2.8%.
  • More premium food lines and an extension of its clothing offer boosted sales.

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Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported a decline in total full price sales of 3.0%. Next Retail full price sales declined 8.1% year over year, while Next Directory sales increased 3.3%. Sales from new retail space accounted for a full price sales increase of 1.6%.
  • Following weak 1Q17 sales, the company lowered its FY17 revenue and profit guidance. The company now expects total full price sales growth for the Next Brand to be between (3.5)% and +0.5%. The company expects FY17 profit before tax (PBT) in the range of £680–£740 million, equating to negative year-over-year growth of between 13.9% and 6.4%.

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Executive Summary

  • Sainsbury’s reported that group sales were up 11.6% in the year ended March 2017. Revenues were boosted by the acquisition of general merchandiser Argos as well as by growth in clothing and general merchandise, implying meaningful declines in Sainsbury’s grocery sales.
  • Despite the company’s increased scale, operating profit fell by 9.2% and missed the consensus estimate. Lower comparable sales, investment in its offering and cost inflation eroded operating margins.
  • In turn, underlying diluted EPS fell by 10.5%, but was in line with consensus.

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Executive Summary

  • Apple reported 2Q17 EPS of $2.10, up 10.4% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $2.02. Revenues were $52.9 billion, up 4.6% year over year and slightly below the $53.1 billion consensus estimate.
  • The company sold 50.8 million iPhones in the quarter, below the consensus estimate of 52.3 million units. iPad units sold decreased by 13% year over year and Mac units sold increased by 4%. Services revenue was $7.0 billion, up 18% year over year.
  • Apple guided for 3Q17 revenues of $43.5–$45.5 billion, below the consensus estimate of $45.6 billion. The margin and expense ranges provided result in an EPS range of $1.42–$1.61, below the consensus estimate of $1.62.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Baidu reported 1Q17 non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS of ¥6.85, up 0.7% year over year, to beat the consensus of ¥6.15. Revenues reached ¥16.9 billion, up 6.8% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • The company announced that Jennifer Li would be stepping down as CFO to serve as CEO of Baidu’s investment firm Baidu Capital.
  • Management expects the top-line for 2Q17 to be in the range of ¥20.47–¥20.98 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.1%–14.9%.

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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • Retail Revolution Is Happening: Store Openings and Closures
  • All-Channel Universe Will Require Adaptation
  • Corporate Innovation Is the New R&D
  • Store as a Platform
  • Wellness as the New Luxury
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Executive Summary

  • Luxottica reported that its adjusted revenue in 1Q17 increased to €2,384 million, up 5.2% year over year and up 1.9% at constant currency. The result was slightly above the consensus estimate of €2,377 million.
  • Sales growth was driven by a very strong performance in Europe and Latin America, as well as by a solid performance in the retail division. Luxottica e-commerce sales increased by 6% year over year at constant exchange rates.
  • Comparable store sales declined by 2.9% year over year at LensCrafters and by 5.4% at Sunglass Hut.

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