Executive Summary

  • M&S grew total full-year sales by 2.2% to £10.62 billion, marginally ahead of consensus and despite negative comps in its UK Clothing and Home and UK Food segments.
  • UK Clothing and Home gross margin grew by 105 basis points on the back of more direct souring and less discounting.
  • Unadjusted pretax profit fell 63.5%, due to £437 million of exceptional costs related to changes in pay and pensions, UK restructuring and exiting from some international markets.

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Executive Summary

  • Chico’s FAS reported 1Q17 EPS of $0.26 versus the consensus estimate of $0.29.
  • Total revenues were $583.7 million, below expectations of $624.8 million and down 9.2% year over year. The decline in sales was driven by a lower average dollar sale and a lower transaction count.
  • Management adjusted its FY17 outlook based on the first-quarter results. Comps for the full year are now expected to decline by mid-single digits versus prior guidance for a low-single-digit decline and consensus of a 1.7% decline.

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Executive Summary

  • Zara and H&M, the two largest global fast-fashion retailers, pioneered the fast-fashion business model. Now, the two companies are competing head to head with a new set of younger online-only competitors.
  • New players such as Boohoo.com, ASOS and Missguided are bringing products from design to sale in as little as a week or two—faster than traditional fast-fashion retailers, and even faster than Zara. Fast fashion is turning into ultrafast fashion.
  • Consumers’ demands for immediacy are increasing and production cycles are becoming ever quicker. Retailers that have the shortest and leanest supply-chain cycles are posting the strongest sales growth results.
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Executive Summary

  • Ross Stores reported 1Q17 EPS of $0.82, up 12.3% from the year-ago quarter and above the $0.80 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $3.31 billion versus expectations of $3.27 billion, and were up 7% year over year.
  • Total comps increased by 3% for the quarter, beating the 2.4% consensus estimate; comp growth was driven by higher traffic as well asan increase in average basket size. Southeast Florida and the Midwest were the strongest-performing regions.
  • The company raised its FY17 EPS guidance to $3.07–$3.17 from $3.02–$3.15, compared with EPS of $2.83 in FY16; consensus calls for full-year EPS of $3.15. Ross Stores expects 2Q17 EPS of $0.73–$0.76, slightly below the $0.78 consensus estimate. The company expects 2Q17 comps to increase by 1%–2%.
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Executive Summary

  • Ralph Lauren reported fiscal 4Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.89, above the $0.78 consensus estimate and in line with guidance.
  • Wholesale revenues in the quarter decreased by 17% year over year, to $777 million, and were down 15% on a constant currency basis. The decline was driven by a planned reduction in North America shipments. Retail segment revenues decreased by 16% year over year, to $745 million, and were down 9% on a constant currency basis.
  • For FY18, the company expects net revenues to decrease by 8%–9%. Foreign currency is expected to have a negative impact of150 basis points for the year. For 1Q18, the company expects revenue to be down by low double digits, excluding a negative foreign currency impact of 225 basis points.

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Executive Summary

  • Alibaba reported 4Q FY17 revenue of ¥38.6 billion, up 60% year over year, and beat consensus estimates by 7%. The company attributed the strong results to solid growth of its core commerce segment, as well as accelerating growth in emerging businesses, including cloud computing, digital media and entertainment.
  • Core commerce revenue reached ¥31.6 billion, up 47% year over year. International retail revenue growth also accelerated to 312% year over year, driven by AliExpress and Lazada. Management emphasized that international expansion will be its core strategy for the next 5–10 years.
  • Cloud computing sales reached ¥2.2 billion, up 103% year over year, driven by an increase in the number of paying customers as well as an increase in their usage of cloud computing. The number of paying customers of the cloud computing business grew to 874,000 from 513,000, as of March 31, 2017.
  • Given its more diversified revenue base, management expects future revenue to be driven by multiple growth drivers including international business, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment. Alibaba will provide details at its Investor Day to be held on June 8–9.

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Executive Summary

  • Of these countries, the US sees clothing and footwear capture the smallest share of retail sales. The category accounted for only 10.9% of US retail sales in 2016, which
    was down from 11.7% in 2012.
  • Apparel enjoyed a strong run in the UK for several years, growing its share of retail sales until 2016, when the category entered a relative decline.
  • The share of retail spending captured by food and beverages has fallen significantly in the US and the UK in recent years.
  • These US and UK trends show that consumer shifts in spending away from nondiscretionary and semidiscretionary categories in favor of discretionary categories are not unique to developing economies such as China.
  • Similarly, soft demand for retail categories such as apparel in the US and the UK is not simply about consumers switching to spending on leisure services, as relative declines are observable even when these categories are measured only
    against other retail categories.
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Executive Summary

  • Gap reported 1Q17 EPS of $0.36, up from $0.32 in the year-ago quarter and above the $0.29 consensus estimate. Foreign currency negatively impacted EPS by an estimated $0.03, or about 9%. Total revenues were $3.44 billion, roughly flat year over year.
  • Total comps were up 2% from the year-ago quarter. Old Navy comps were up 8% year over year, while Gap comps were down 4% and Banana Republic comps were down 4%. Inventory was about flat year over year at the end of the quarter.
  • The company reaffirmed its FY17 EPS guidance of $1.95–$2.05. The company also raised its EPS guidance for 1H17; it now expects a mid-single-digit decline in the first half versus a high-single-digit decline previously.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the battle currently under way among retailers that are competing to lower the minimum required spend to qualify for free shipping.
  • com wants to furnish your home. The online retail giant is making a major push into furniture and appliances, including building at least four massive warehouses focused on handling bulky items, according to people familiar with Amazon’s plans.
  • German supermarket chain Aldi could grow its UK store numbers to around 2,600. It currently has 700 stores in the UK, but is now looking to challenge the dominance of Tesco and Sainsbury’s.
  • Xiaomi has been increasing its office retail presence in China, as it bids to gain ground stolen by rivals in its homeland. Now, it is making that same push in its second-largest market, India, where it will introduce its Mi Home stores in just over a week.

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Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported fiscal 1Q 2018 EPS of $1.00, up from $0.98 in the year-ago quarter and beating the $0.96 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $117.5 billion, up 1.4% year over year and slightly below the consensus estimate.
  • US comp sales increased by 1.4%, in line with consensus, on a 1.5% increase in traffic. E-commerce sales and gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 63% and 69%, respectively.
  • The $1.04 midpoint of the company’s 2Q18 EPS guidance of $1.00–$1.08 is lower than the $1.07 consensus estimate. Walmart guided for 2Q18 US comps (excluding fuel) of 1.5%–2.0% and Sam’s Club comps (excluding fuel) of 1.0%–1.5%.

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Executive Summary

  • Tencent reported 1Q17 revenues of ¥49.6 billion, up 54.9% year over year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was ¥1.49, up 41.0% year over year. The solid results were largely driven by the gaming and social network segments.
  • Value-added services (VAS) revenues, which accounted for 71% of total revenue, increased by 40.6% year over year, mainly driven by strong revenue growth in both PC games and smartphone games.
  • Advertising revenues were up 46.5% year over year, thanks to strong growth from the mobile media platform, higher ad fill rates in WeChat’s Moments and a higher click-through rate in WeChat’s Official Accounts.
  • Other revenue surged 244.3% year over year, driven by mobile payment and cloud services. Management reiterated mobile payment as a key element of Tencent’s ecosystem rather than as a profit center.

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Executive Summary

  • Target reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.21, down 6.1% from $1.29 in the year-ago quarter, but handily beating the $0.91 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $16.0 billion, down 1.1% year over year, but above the $15.65 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comp sales decreased by 1.3%, while e-commerce sales grew by 22% and accounted for 4.3% of sales.
  • For 2Q17, Target expects a low-single-digit decline in comps, and GAAP and adjusted EPS of $0.95–$1.15, in line with the $1.00 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • L Brands reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.33, down 44.1% from the year-ago quarter, but above the $0.29 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $2.44 billion versus expectations of $2.46 billion, and were down 6.8% year over year.
  • Total comps declined by 9% for the quarter. Victoria’s Secret comps declined by 14% versus a 2% increase in the year-ago period. Bath & Body Works comps increased by 2% versus a 6% increase in the year-ago quarter.
  • The company raised its FY17 EPS guidance to $3.10–$3.40 from $3.05–$3.35, citing a lower tax rate; consensus calls for full-year EPS of $3.22. L Brands expects 2Q17 EPS of $0.40–$0.45, slightly below the $0.46 consensus estimate. The company expects May comps to decrease by mid- to high-single digits.

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Executive Summary

  • scena Retail updated guidance in advance of its 3Q17 earnings call and provided an update on its Change for Growth enterprise transformation program. The company cited a highly promotional environment and industrywide headwinds resulting in a reduction of its 3Q sales and earnings outlook.
  • The company lowered its sales guidance for 3Q to (8)%, from prior guidance for a range of (5)% to (4)%, and lowered its full fiscal year comparable sales guidance down to a range of (7)% to (6)%, from previous guidance for a range of (4)% to (3)%.
  • Ascena Retail also lowered its 3Q EPS guidance to $0.04–$0.06, from $0.07–$0.12, and its full fiscal year 2017 EPS guidance to $0.10–$0.15 from $0.37–$0.42 previously.
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Executive Summary

In April 2017, Amazon announced that it will launch a full offering in Australia, although it has not yet specified a launch date.

  • We estimate that Amazon Australia could generate total merchandise sales of around A$4 billion in 2021 and A$10 billion in 2026. In 2021, that would equate to a share of approximately 12.5% of Australian Internet sales, which could climb to 20% by 2026.
  • We think Amazon will build share initially in the electronics category, and that the retailer is, therefore, a near-term threat to incumbent electronics specialists.
  • Longer term, Amazon is likely to encourage more Australians to buy apparel, beauty and food online, heaping competitive pressures on specialized brick-and-mortar retailers.
  • With its selling points of choice and convenience, Amazon also poses a threat to multicategory retailers that have built their businesses on similar competitive advantages.
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