Executive Summary

  • Ahold Delhaize reported 2Q17 revenues of €16,121 million, up by 67.3% from 2Q16 in reported currency (+64.6% at constant rates). The jump in reported revenues is due to the merger of Ahold and Delhaize in July 2016.
  • Pro forma 2Q17 revenues, which represent the entirety of the merged group, were €16,044 million, up by 3.4% in reported currency (+1.8% at constant currency) and slightly above the consensus estimate of €16,011 million.
  • The gross margin fell by 70 basis points, SG&A as a percentage of sales slid by 80 bps and the operating margin was flat. Diluted EPS leapt by 12.0% to €0.28 during 2Q17, slightly above the consensus estimate of €0.27.
  • Ahold Delhaize upheld its target of realizing €220 million in net synergies by the end of FY17, of which €22 million was realized in FY16.
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Executive Summary

  • Ralph Lauren reported 1Q18 adjusted EPS of $1.11, beating the consensus estimate of $0.95. Revenues decreased by 12.9%, to $1.35 billion from $1.55 billion in the year-ago period, beating the consensus estimate of $1.34 billion.
  • Total Ralph Lauren comparable store sales decreased by 7%, beating the consensus estimate of an 8.3% decline.
  • The company maintained its full-year guidance of a net revenue decrease of 8%–9%, excluding the impact of foreign currency. In the second quarter of fiscal 2018, the company expects net revenues to be down 9%–10%, excluding the impact of foreign currency.

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Executive Summary

  • Wayfair reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $(0.26), ahead of the $(0.46) consensus estimate and up from $(0.43) in the year-ago period. Total revenues were $1.12 billion, up 42.7% year over year and above the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion.
  • Orders delivered in 2Q17 totaled 4.28 million, above the consensus estimate of 4.16 million and above the year-ago total of 2.93 million. Active customers in the direct retail business totaled 9.5 million, up 43.1% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • For 3Q17, Wayfair expects revenue of $1.16–$1.18 billion, above the $1.15 billion consensus estimate. Additionally, the company expects direct retail revenue to grow at a rate of approximately 37%–40% year over year, to $1.14–$1.16 billion, above the $1.13 billion consensus estimat

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Executive Summary

  • Michael Kors reported fiscal 1Q18 revenues of $952.4 million, down 3.6% year over year and ahead of the $918.7 million consensus estimate. EPS was $0.80, beating the consensus estimate of $0.62.
  • Reported comps were down 5.9% versus the consensus estimate of a 9.2% decline and prior guidance of a high-single-digit decline.
  • The company provided 2Q18 EPS guidance of $0.80–$0.84, above the consensus estimate of $0.78. Revenues are expected to be $1.035–$1.055 billion for the second quarter, versus consensus of $1.01 billion.

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Executive Summary

  • CVS Health reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.33, up 0.7% year over year and beating the $1.31 consensus estimate. Revenues were $45.7 billion, up 4.5% year over year, beating the $45.35 billion consensus estimate.
  • Pharmacy Services was the fastest-growing segment, with revenues up 9.5% year over year, to $32.3 billion. Revenues in the Retail/LTC (Long-Term Care) segment declined by 2.2%.
  • The company narrowed its 2017 adjusted EPS guidance range upward,to $5.83–$5.93 from $5.77–$5.93.

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Executive Summary

  • The US mobile payments market is highly fragmented, and leaders PayPal and Apple Pay have not yet achieved widespread public acceptance. US mobile payment platforms are hamstrung by hardware issues, proprietary systems and closed platforms as well as by a general lack of consumer enthusiasm.
  • The US payments market is huge: Americans completed 33.8 billion credit card transactions in 2015, for a total value of $31.6 trillion, and eMarketer forecasts that 48.1 million peer-to-peer mobile payment users will generate total payments of $49.29 billion this year.
  • Amazon has quietly expanded its Amazon Pay platform to encompass more than 33 million users and 133 retailers. The platform uses the payment information securely stored in customers’ Amazon.com accounts to fund and bill purchases of goods and services. Other benefits include access to Amazon’s customer service, not having to share one’s credit card information beyond a single vendor and the security of the platform.
  • Amazon Pay Places is a mobile version of Amazon Pay that enables users to pay for items through their smartphones using the payment information in their Amazon.com account. The platform is currently undergoing testing at TGI Fridays restaurants in several US cities.
  • Amazon wins customers with the convenience and ease of use of its platform, even on occasions when it does not offer the lowest price. The company has more than 310 million active customers who are already comfortable with using Amazon’s payment methods, and the company can likely leverage this customer base to conquer a fragmented US mobile payments market.
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Executive Summary

Alibaba was established in 1999 as a business-to-business (B2B) portal connecting Chinese manufacturers to overseas buyers, essentially making it easy to do business anywhere. The group has since grown to become the largest e-commerce company in the world in terms of gross merchandise volume (GMV). For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2017, Alibaba had a GMV of ¥3.8 trillion (US$0.43 trillion) and 454 million annual active buyers on its marketplaces.

In this report, we provide an overview of Alibaba’s different business segments, and how they all work together using its platforms and big data technology to enable small enterprises to compete more effectively.

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Executive Summary

  • As announced preliminarily last week, Adidas reported stronger-than-expected revenue and profit growth for 2Q17. Revenues were up 20%, to €5,038 million. Revenues were up 19% on a constant-currency basis. EBIT grew by 18% and net income from continuing operations grew by 16%, to €347 million.
  • All regions with the exception of Russia/CIS saw strong revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis, with Greater China up 28%, North America up 26% and Western Europe up 19%.
  • Adidas raised its guidance for FY17 currency-neutral revenue growth to 17%–19% from 12%–14% previously. The company raised its guidance for net income to 26%–28% growth from 13%–15% previously.

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Executive Summary

  • The traditional mass-market fragrance business is struggling as consumers seek fragrance brands that are more “upmarket.” Following a boom in celebrity and mass-market fragrance sales that lasted for several years, consumers are shifting away from these products.
  • We are seeing demand move toward prestige and niche fragrances, which are showing strong sales performance.
  • Foot traffic is declining in US department stores, traditionally the main fragrance retail channel, and beauty and fragrance sales continue to shift to specialist beauty retail chains Ulta and Sephora, as well as to off-price retailers and the online channel.
  • Other notable recent fragrance trends include growth in scented products for the home and green and aromatherapy scents and mists.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses how Walmart and JD.com are strengthening their partnership, including through the launch of a new shopping festival to be held on August 8.
  • Off-price retailers have become a bright spot amid the doom and gloom of widespread closures of brick-and-mortar stores and online shopping’s growing dominance. T.J. Maxx, Ross and others are expanding at a time when legacy department stores are shuttering locations.
  • PayPal has continued its strategy of expanding its mobile presence with its announcement of a tie-up with Baidu. The arrangement will enable Baidu’s 100 million mobile wallet users to make payments to PayPal’s 17 million merchants through the Baidu service.
  • Brazil is expected to see a 229% increase in the number of entirely digital bank accounts by the end of 2017, recent research suggests. There are currently 1 million online bank accounts in the country and the number is expected to reach 3.3 million by year-end.

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Executive Summary

Across the globe, more and more people are turning to city-center living. This trend spans developing economies and Western markets. In this report, we explore the trend’s impact on retail product categories and retail formats.

  • Perhaps urban living’s greatest effect on consumer goods industries will be that it drives an incremental shift from spending on retail to spending on services.
  • Greater urbanization should boost the markets for product rental, subscription services and on-demand fulfillment. We also expect it to support spending on leisure services and a shift in home-maintenance spending from do-it-yourself (DIY) options in favor of professional service providers.
  • City-center living is boosting demand for antipollution products such as air purifiers, face masks and skincare. It is also helping drive growth in the “sleep economy,” which consists of products and services that promote better sleep.
  • Within retail, we think greater urbanization will sustain a move from a model that requires consumers to put in much of the effort—including driving to a store, browsing the aisles in a large-format shop, and picking and packing their own products—to one where consumers expect retailers to take a greater share of the burden and offer greater convenience.
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Executive Summary

  • PayPal announced that it has formed a strategic partnership with Baidu, which will allow PayPal’s global merchants to accept payments from Baidu Wallet users.
  • The strategic move should help Baidu Wallet better position itself in the overseas payment market. In terms of mobile payment development, Baidu lags behind in the domestic market where Alibaba Group affiliate Ant Financial and Tencent dominate.
  • The partnership with Baidu should further increase PayPal’s appeal to global merchants. PayPal already partnered with UnionPay last year to allow global merchants to accept payments from Chinese customers.

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Executive Summary

  • Hanesbrands reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.53, up 3.9% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. Revenues were also in line with consensus, at $1.65 billion, up 11.8% year over year.
  • The company’s International segment saw sales increase by 76% as a result of acquisitions and strong performance in Asia.
  • For 3Q17, the company raised its adjusted EPS guidance to $0.59–$0.61 from $0.51–$0.54 previously. Hanesbrands reaffirmed its full-year guidance for net sales, operating profit, EPS and cash flow from operations.

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Executive Summary

  • Under Armour reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $(0.03), versus consensus expectations of $(0.06). Total revenues were $1.09 billion, ahead of the $1.08 billion consensus estimate, and were up 8.7% year over year.
  • Wholesale revenues were up 3%, to $655 million, reflecting strength in the company’s International business that was partially offset by a 0.3% decrease in its North American business. By product type, apparel revenues increased by 11%, to $681 million, driven by men’s and women’s training apparel and golf apparel. Footwear revenues were down 2%, to $237 million, following a 58% increase in the second quarter of last year.
  • The company lowered its FY17 revenue guidance to 9%–11% from 11%–12% previously. Under Armour now expects full-year revenues of $5.25–$5.36 billion, versus consensus of $5.34 billion. The company expects FY17 EPS of $0.37–$0.40, below the $0.42 consensus estimate. Under Armour unveiled a restructuring plan to cut costs.

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Executive Summary

  • Walmart and JD.com, China’s largest e-commerce company by revenues, announced that they are expanding the strategic partnership formed last year by further integrating their respective platforms, supply chains and customer resources.
  • These new initiatives aim to leverage the two companies’ core competencies and offer Chinese shoppers faster and more convenient access to high-quality, authentic products.
  • Walmart and JD.com will integrate their respective inventory management systems in a jointly developed supply-chain system. Once an order is placed, the system will determine whether to deliver from the closest JD warehouse or the closest Walmart store. To enhance the reach and efficiency of its logistics network, JD.com has established pick-up stations at select Walmart stores for those who choose to click and collect, as well, it has established the first JD Home store within a Walmart store in Shenzhen.
  • We believe further integration of the two companies’ supply chains, which we view as a key point in this latest announcement, will widen Walmart’s reach in China and increase its online presence.
  • In our view, the timing of these further strategic initiatives will be critical, and the upcoming 8.8 shopping festival the two companies will host on August 8 will serve as a good test case. The shopping festival will feature a livestream broadcast from Walmart’s first US store.

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