Executive Summary

  • Target reported 2Q17 total revenues of $16.4 billion, up 1.6% year over year and above the $16.3 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.23, compared with $1.23 in the year-ago quarter and above the $1.19 consensus estimate.
  • Comps were up 1.3%, beating the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Management was pleased with the quarterly results. Second-quarter store traffic was up 2%, reflecting growth in both the store and digital channels.
  • The company raised its full-year guidance based on better-than-expected first-half results. For the full year, the company now expects EPS of $4.34–$4.54, about 11% higher than its prior guidance. Adjusted EPS for 3Q17 is expected to be $0.75–$0.95.

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Executive Summary

  • TJX Companies reported fiscal 2Q18 EPS of $0.85, above both the consensus estimate of $0.84 and management’s expectations.
  • Total revenues increased by 6.0% year over year, to $8.4 billion. Comps increased by 3.0%, versus expectations for a 2.2% increase. Marmaxx comps were up 2.0%, above expectations of 1.0%, while HomeGoods comps were up 7.0%, above expectations of 2.4%. TJX Canada comps were up 7.0% and TJX Europe comps were up 1% in the quarter.
  • For the full year, management raised its EPS projections to $3.89–$3.93, versus prior guidance of $3.71–$3.78 and consensus of $3.89. For the third quarter, the company expects EPS of $0.98–$1.00 versus consensus of $1.00. That increase would represent growth of 18%–20% over the year-ago period’s $0.83.

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Executive Summary

  • Home Depot reported 2Q17 EPS of $2.25, up 14% from the year-ago quarter and beating the $2.21 consensus estimate. Total revenues for 2Q17 were $28.1 billion, versus expectations of $27.8 billion, and were up 6.2% year over year. The results represent the highest quarterly sales and net earnings in the company’s history.
  • Comps rose by 6.3% during the quarter, beating the 4.9% consensus estimate. US comps were up 6.6% in the quarter. Total comps were driven by a 3.6% increase in average ticket and a 2.6% increase in customer transactions. All merchandising departments posted positive comps, with lumber, electrical, tools and flooring registering double-digit comps in the quarter.
  • Management increased its FY17 guidance for net revenues, which it now expects to increase by 5.3%, versus the 5.1% consensus estimate. Management expects full-year comp growth of 5.5%, versus the consensus estimate of 5.1%. Home Depot raised its FY17 EPS guidance from $7.15 to $7.29, citing expected stock repurchases of $7 billion; consensus calls for full-year EPS of $7.28.

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Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 2Q17 revenues of ¥93.2 billion, up 43.6% year over year, to beat the consensus estimate of ¥89.65 billion. Non-GAAP diluted net loss per ADS was ¥0.20, compared to a net income per ADS of ¥0.09 for 2Q16.
  • Total gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached ¥234.8 billion in 2Q17, an increase of 46% year over year. General merchandise contributed 51% of total GMV, up from 48% in the year-ago period.
  • JD.com continued to expand its product offerings through cooperations with international brands, such as Walmart, Baidu and Farfetch, which are expected to drive business expansion.

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Executive Summary

  • Coach reported fiscal 4Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.50, beating the consensus estimate by a penny and up from $0.45 in the year-ago quarter. Revenues were $1.13 billion, down slightly from $1.15 billion in the year-ago period and below the consensus estimate of $1.15 billion.
  • Net sales for the Stuart Weitzman brand totaled $88 million, up 4.7% year over year. Excluding the additional week in FY16, net sales increased by 15% on a reported basis. The brand reported high SG&A costs year over year, reflecting an increase in store occupancy costs and the company’s strategic investments in its team and infrastructure.
  • Coach expects revenues for FY18 to increase by about 30% versus FY17 due to $1.2 billion in additional revenue from the acquired Kate Spade brand and low-single-digit organic growth. The company expects EPS of $2.35–$2.40, which represents an increase of approximately 10%–12% for the year and includes low-to mid-single-digit accretion from the acquisition of Kate Spade.

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Executive Summary

  • Define the three types of reality technology—AR, VR and MR—and show how retailers, including IKEA and Alibaba, have introduced reality technology to provide customers with a virtual “try before you buy” service and new ways to shop.
  • List the main factors that must be overcome to encourage further adoption of reality technology, and illustrate the potential opportunities for retailers embracing AR, VR and MR.
  • Propose a series of recommendations that retailers should consider when implementing strategies to adopt reality technology to maximize consumer reach and sales conversion.
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Executive Summary

  • JCPenney reported 2Q17 EPS of $(0.20), missing the $(0.04) consensus estimate and down from $(0.18) in the year-ago quarter. Revenues were $2.96 billion, up 1.5% year over year and beating the $2.84 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps declined by 1.3% in the quarter. Strong products lines included home, fine jewelry, footwear and handbags, Sephora, and salon. Geographically, the Southwest and Southeast were the best-performing regions.
  • The company reaffirmed its 2017 EPS guidance of $0.40–$0.65 based on expected comps of (1)%–1%.

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Executive Summary

  • The global direct selling market rebounded to US$134.2 billion in 2016, up 2.8% from the previous year. China follows the US closely as the second largest direct selling market, valued at US$33.9, and the country is expected to overtake the US as the largest direct selling market in the next few years.
  • Direct selling companies are facing challenges in the digital age; apart from consumer shifting purchases to online, technology has enabled brands and retailers to offer more personalized services, a key competitive advantage owned by direct sellers.
  • Despite these challenges, some direct companies have enjoyed unparalleled growth in recent years,where they have leveraged digital tools to increase operational efficiency, as well as to broaden their reach to potential customers.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses Amazon’s private-label brands relative to more established names as well as the slew of new private labels Amazon has on the horizon.
  • The National Retail Federation is forecasting a five-year high in back-to-school spending, driven by stronger employment levels and a continued increase in wages. Total spending for school and college combined is expected to hit $83.6 billion, up from $75.8 billion last year.
  • German discount grocer Lidl intends to take its Irish store count up to 200 by 2018. The company already has 152 stores in Ireland.
  • WeWork secured $500 million in funding and then announced that it is pouring that same amount into expanding into Southeast Asia and South Korea. As part of its announcement, WeWork said it had acquired a 1.5-year-old, Singapore-based coworking company called Spacemob.

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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.48, beating the consensus estimate of $0.46. Total revenues declined by 5.4% year over year, to $5.55 billion, reflecting announced store closures.
  • Comps were down 2.8% and down 2.5% on an owned-plus-licensed basis. The strongest categories were fine jewelry, fragrance, men’s apparel and women’s shoes.
  • Management reiterated its prior full-year guidance. The company is projecting adjusted EPS of $3.37–$3.62 and expects revenues to be down 3.2%–4.3%. The company expects comps to be down 2.2%–3.3%, versus the consensus estimate of a 3.2% decline.

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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported 2Q17 revenues up 20.1% year over year, but below the consensus estimate. The adjusted EBIT margin for the quarter was 7.4%.
  • Zalando reported 1H17 revenue growth of 21.5%, just missing the consensus estimate, and the adjusted EBIT margin was 4.9%.
  • The company confirmed its FY17 guidance to deliver revenue growth in the 20.0%–25.0% range and for the adjusted EBIT margin to fall between 5.0% and 6.0%.

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Executive Summary

  • Kohl’s reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $1.24, ahead of the $1.19 consensus estimate and up 1.6% from the year-ago period. Total revenues were $4.14 billion, down 0.9% year over year but beating the $4.13 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comparable-store sales were down 0.4%, which was better than the 1.5% decline analysts had expected and the 1.8% decline recorded in the year-ago quarter. Comps benefited from higher average transaction value, driven by a continued increase in average unit retail that was partially offset by a decrease in units per transaction.
  • The company did not update its prior EPS guidance of $3.50–$3.80 for FY17. The consensus calls for EPS of $3.68. FY17 guidance calls for revenue growth of (1.3)%–0.7% and comp growth in the range of (2)%–0%.

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Executive Summary

  • Nordstrom reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.65, beating the consensus estimate of $0.64. Revenues increased by 3.5%, to $3.72 billion from $3.59 billion in the year-ago period, but missed the consensus estimate of $3.75 billion.
  • Comparable sales increased by 1.7% year over year. Three of the five top-selling brands during the company’s Anniversary Sale, which is historically its largest event of the year, were Nordstrom proprietary labels.
  • The company raised its sales growth outlook for the full year to 4% from 3%–4% previously. Nordstrom maintained its comp guidance at 4% and raised its EPS guidance to $2.85–$3.00.

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Executive Summary

  • Chinese outbound tourists have evolved into experienced and sophisticated travelers – some 67% of surveyed tourists have traveled more than once in the past 12 months, visiting an average of 2.3 destinations. Apart from shopping, they crave lifestyle and experiences when they travel abroad.
  • Chinese tourists from lower-tier cities have become the growth engine for outbound tourism. Based on their most recent overseas trip, survey respondents said they spent on average US$2,449, 10% higher than tourists from tier-one cities. They also travel as frequently as their counterparts from tier-one cities, at an average of 1.9 times per year.
  • Chinese tourists are also mobile-savvy, 98% of surveyed tourists use their smartphone while abroad to keep in touch with others and to search for travel-related information. Some 72% use online resources such as travel websites, blogs and social media to plan their trips.
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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • 2Q17 Retail Update
  • 2017 Back-to-School Outlook: Solid Forecast, Room for Upside
  • Macro Backdrop Update: The Consumer Is Still in Good Shape
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