Executive Summary

In this report, we take stock of the 2017 holiday season in the US, providing an overview of retail sales, category winners and returns. We also look at the drivers of this holiday season’s sales growth, including macroeconomic conditions, weather and a favorable calendar effect.

  • Overall holiday retail sales growth exceeded industry estimates of 3%–4%, reaching 4.9% year over year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse.
  • Online holiday retail sales grew by 18.1% year over year, outpacing overall retail sales growth, and Cyber Monday 2017 was the biggest e-commerce day in history in the US.
  • The electronics and appliances category saw the highest year-over-year growth over the holiday season, with sales rising by 7.5%. Sales in both the home furnishings and home improvement categories grew by a strong 5.1%. Specialty apparel and department stores saw moderate gains.
  • Technology products accounted for 22% of holiday retail sales in 2016 (latest available). In 2017, the iPhone was the best-selling tech product, with more than 233 million units sold.
  • Positive macroeconomic conditions, cold and dry weather, and a favorable holiday calendar all contributed to retail sales growth this holiday season.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

This report analyzes which brands, retailers and store formats will be winning in the retail world of the future. The report draws on global analysis performed by FGRT, retail real estate market insights about the Hong Kong market from Colliers International and an expert panel discussion that took place in Hong Kong on the theme the “Tenant of the Future.” The panel discussion was part of the second event of the “Retail Revolution: Disrupt or be Disrupted” event series—a collaboration between FGRT and ULI Asia Pacific, which focuses on innovation in retail and its applications to real estate.

  • New Retail is emerging as a dominant retail strategy in key markets around the world and this is changing how retailers look at their physical retail footprint: New Retail companies view their physical stores as a lot more than just a distribution channel.
  • In 2017, Hong Kong experienced a recovery of retail sales, with more emphasis on new shopping experiences. A few of the trends shaping the landscape are an uptake in tourists from the Chinese Mainland, changing consumer behavior that is increasingly digital and the market entry of new international brands.
  • Brands and retailers will still need an offline presence in the future, which they will use to provide an experiential environment to shoppers and to add value to online sales. In addition, closer collaboration between tenants and landlords will be key in the New Retail landscape.
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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Below, we provide our takeaways from Day 1 of the event:

  • Intel demonstrated huge advances in 360-degree and 3D video that have been achieved with multiple cameras and massive data processing.
  • Ford is developing a city-centric approach for optimizing city life and managing traffic from pedestrians, ride-sharing services, bicycles and autonomous vehicles.
  • Much work still needs to be done to make our connected home devices secure, either through industry or government regulation.
  • Huawei made its US debut, announcing the Advanced Mate 10 Pro handset and other connected devices.
  • Creating smart cities will require a huge effort and an enormous amount of data.

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Executive Summary

  • UK grocery retailer Morrisons reported comparable sales growth of 2.8% and retail comps of 2.1% in the 10 weeks ended January 7.
  • This was an unexpectedly strong performance and lapped a 3.3% comp for the same period last year.
  • The company grew online sales by more than 10%.

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Executive Summary

  • The recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provides an opportunity for established brick-and-mortar retailers in the US to invest in “better retail” and, in doing so, create a virtuous circle of higher sales and greater investment.
  • Legacy retailers could choose to invest in upgrading store environments, lowering prices, hiring and training store staff, enhancing marketing, or improving omnichannel services such as mobile offerings and in-store technologies.
  • The law lowers income tax rates for all but the lowest-income households, raises the amount taxpayers can earn tax-free, cuts the corporate tax rate and encourages US firms to repatriate overseas profits.
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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Below, we provide our takeaways from Media Day 2 of the event:

  • Toyota’s President Akio Toyoda announced a new on-demand autonomous vehicle to support a range of business applications.
  • Panasonic is working with Google (Google Assistant) and Amazon (Alexa) to bring voice to the car.
  • Samsung is building a connected future; 90% of the company’s TVs, appliances, phones and tablets are Internet of Things (IoT) ready. Samsung’s IoT strategy aims to include seamless connectivity and intelligence.
  • As the world becomes increasingly urbanized, this puts pressure on energy networks and the environment. Bosch’s smart cities solutions aim to enhance mobility and minimize pollution and the use of energy.
  • BrainCo showcased an attention-measuring wearable (a headband) that offers interesting applications in the education space.
  • Hisense unveiled a new line of 4K Ultra HD TVs with special features targeting the upcoming FIFA World Cup tournament.
  • Solace Lifesciences showcased its all-natural sleep solutions and stress management technology.
  • Qualcomm made several announcements regarding wireless communication solutions, audio products and automotive infotainment systems.
  • Nvidia advances NVIDIA DRIVE: the company demonstrated autonomous driving capability and announced partnerships with Uber and Volkswagen.
  • TCL announced a partnership with Roku that leverages voice technology for TV content.

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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Below, we provide our takeaways from Media Day 1 of the event:

  • “Living in Digital Times” will combine hyperpersonalization, predictive analytics, patient-centered healthcare, software as drugs, and cognitive healthcare and pain management.
  • Automotive startup Byton unveiled a prototype of an autonomous, electric car focused on the in-car experience.
  • 5G Connectivity is coming soon, and will enable many new applications in telecommunications, industrial, automotive and healthcare.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) will enable us to create systems that can learn to do things that we cannot program them to do, having a great societal impact.
  • Robots are evolving beyond simple task-based machines.
  • Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) are changing our definition of realism, and are crossing over between business and consumer.
  • The US consumer electronics industry is experiencing solid growth in the number of connected devices, and in hardware, software and streaming services.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • In 2017, major US retailers closed some 6,955 stores, the highest recorded rate of closures—even exceeding the annual store closure count during the global economic downturn.
  • Year-to-date 2018, the number of US store closure announcements stands at 1,446.
  • Mattress Firm to close 200 stores.
  • Sears to shutter over 100 more stores.
  • Macy’s to close 11 stores in early 2018.
  • Camping World to Acquire Erehwon Mountain Outfitter and close 13 stores.
  • Rent-A-Center CEO resigns.
  • Year to date in the UK, there have been 26 store closure announcements and 270 store opening announcements.
  • The Co-op to open 100 new stores.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the retail outlook for 2018, which is likely to bring a continuation of trends seen in 2017.
  • The holiday shopping season, a crucial period for retailers, can account for up to 40% of annual sales. The season brought record-breaking online and in-store spending of more than $800 billion this year, according to Mastercard’s analytics arm.
  • More than 12,000 stores are expected to close in 2018—up from roughly 9,000 in 2017, according to Cushman & Wakefield. A rash of bankruptcy filings and store closures is expected at the start of the year.
  • Marks & Spencer has sold its 27-store retail business in Hong Kong and Macau to UAE-based Al-Futtaim Group, which now runs 72 Marks & Spencer stores across 11 markets.

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Executive Summary

  • Debenhams reported a decline of 1.3% in group comparable sales and a decline of 0.8% in gross transaction value in the 17 weeks ended December 30, 2017.
  • At constant currency, comps declined by 1.8%, including a UK comp decline of 2.6% and an international comp increase of 2.1%.
  • Promotional activity helped improve sales, but negatively impacted gross margin, which is expected to decline by 150 basis points year over year in 1H18.

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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • Holiday Wrap-Up: Season Exceeded Expectations Due to a Holiday Surge
  • Consumers Wait for the Best Deals, Which Drives a Last-Minute Rush in Sales
  • Favorable Holiday Calendar: A Full Weekend Before Christmas
  • Holiday 2017 Weather Was an Easy Comparison Versus 2016
  • Holiday Online Sales Growth Far Outpaced In-Store Sales Growth
  • Amazon Won Again, and Had Its “Biggest Holiday” Ever
  • In-Store Traffic Increased, but Was Uneven
  • Growth Across the Board, Although Department Stores and Apparel Lagged
  • This Season’s Best-Selling Tech Products
  • Traffic Momentum Continues After Christmas
  • National Returns Day, January 3, Was Expected to Draw 1.4 Million Package Returns

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

  • Over the past few years, we have witnessed the rise of bloggers and social media influencers, and influencer marketing is rapidly becoming commonplace in categories spanning beauty to fashion.
  • Reflecting the decline in TV and print, companies are harnessing the growth in social media consumption and increasingly utilizing Internet personalities to reach consumers.
  • Influencers have become a driver of consumer purchases, especially among young consumers. Brands are working with celebrity and social media influencers to attract Gen Zers, a demographic group that is the most influenced by social media endorsements.
  • Numerous social media influencers are launching their own product lines, from beauty to fashion to homeware categories. As a result, the influencer brand space is crowded, especially in the beauty category.
  • Given the cutthroat level of competition and market over saturation in both beauty and fashion retail, we believe it will be very difficult for the majority of influencer brands to gain meaningful scale in either the beauty or apparel categories.
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Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported that total full-price sales growth strengthened to 1.5% during the holiday trading period ended December 24. This compared to company guidance for a full-price sales decline of 0.3%.
  • Full-price store-based sales growth remained very weak, falling by 6.1%. Online and catalog full-price sales grew by 13.6%.
  • Reflecting improved trading, the company raised full-year sales and profit guidance slightly.

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Executive Summary

  • The global eyewear market, which includes spectacles, sunglasses and contact lenses, was valued at $121 billion in 2016. This market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% to reach $136 billion by 2021, according to data from Euromonitor.
  • We believe there is ample room for disruption in the eyewear industry, due to: 1) the high margins of eyewear products; 2) the emergence of online as a distribution channel; 3) the long waiting times for custom eyewear products; and 4) the improvement in new technologies, such as 3D printing and online vision tests.
  • We expect more startups and disruptors in the eyewear industry to improve the processing of and reduce the pickup time for custom eyewear products, as well as potentially lower margins by undercutting retail prices.
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Executive Summary

We interviewed Joël Palix, CEO of leading beauty pure playretailer Feelunique, to get his perspective on the online beauty market. He shared a number of insights with us, including:

  • Online beauty retail is a dynamic market that enjoyed strong growth in 2016 in countries such as the UK and France.
  • In the US, the online beauty market is dominated by Amazon and department stores. In China, generalist e-commerce platforms such as Tmall dominate, while in Europe, the market is more diverse and specialist beauty pure plays such as Feelunique have a more significant presence.
  • There is room for the online beauty retail market to expand, thanks to beauty products’ suitability for online purchase, younger shoppers’ propensity to buy online and the strength of online beauty shopping in emerging markets such as China.
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