Executive Summary

  • Groupe Casino reported FY17 sales growth of 5.0% to €37,822 million. Organic sales growth was 3.2% and comparable sales growth was 2.4%.
  • In 4Q17, group sales contracted by 0.3% as reported, but grew by 3.2% on an organic basis. Comps were 2.0%.
  • The company expects its full-year group trading profit to amount to €1,240 million, implying 20% growth. In France, Groupe Casino anticipates 10% growth in trading profit to €550 million, of which the real estate contribution is estimated to be €90 million, while the rest is from retail trade.

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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour reported 4Q17 sales including sales tax of €23,328 million. Comparable sales grew by 1.9% excluding fuel and calendar effects, an improvement over the previous quarter that was due to stronger momentum in France.
  • FY17 sales including sales tax reached €88,240 million and comparable sales grew by 1.6%, a slowdown versus FY16 due to a deceleration in food sales growth.
  • The company will report complete full-year results on February 28. For FY17, analysts expect Carrefour to report net revenue of €79,176 million, EBIT of €2,029 million and normalized EPS of €1.13.

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Executive Summary

  • In 2017, OC&C Strategy Consultants reported that Amazon had lost its long-held first place in its annual ranking of the UK’s favorite retailers. Amazon UK fell sharply in last year’s survey, to fourth place.
  • OC&C’s 2017 survey found that Amazon UK saw lower scores for value for money, quality, low prices, store look and feel, and customer service year over year.
  • No such decline in customer satisfaction was evident in the US, though, and Amazon continues to rank as the favorite online retailer in Germany, its largest non-US market.
  • Possible reasons for Amazon UK customers’ reduced satisfaction are the company’s use of some delivery services with poor reputations and heightened competition in delivery and collection.
  • The UK case suggests that Amazon may face challenges in sustaining customer satisfaction levels in other markets as omnichannel competition increases. As more retailers offer rapid delivery and free rapid collection services, Amazon’s fulfillment advantages diminish.
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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending NRF 2018 Retail’s Big Show in New York City this week. With more than 35,000 attendees from 95 countries, including 18,000 retailers and more than 600 exhibitors, the trade show is one of the biggest in the retail industry. Below are our key takeaways from the second day of the event.

  • IBM demonstrated a blockchain application for supply chains and a retail analytics platform called MetroPulse, among other technologies.
  • Spencer Fung, CEO of Li & Fung, delivered a keynote presentation on creating the retail supply chain of the future.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the retail space by helping retailers provide engaging customer experiences and personalized interactions as well as enabling them to deliver products to customers anywhere, at any time.
  • Despite negative events and data, there are many positives with regard to the outlook for retail.
  • Salesforce showcased AI-powered personalization and engagement solutions.

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Executive Summary

In the UK, recent high-profile retailer difficulties have been reported as representing an “embattled” retail sector. However, we believe the fundamental challenge is actually one of undifferentiated stores facing ever-growing competition.

  • UK retail sales continue to grow above inflation, fueled by greater borrowing and less saving.
  • We expect to see a new round of closures, company voluntary arrangements (CVAs) and bankruptcies among middleground generalist retailers. The UK’s inflationary environment is merely the trigger for this, rather than the underlying cause.
  • Competition and near-unlimited choice is the fundamental challenge for large-store generalist retailers. The abundance of choice spans specialized pure-play retailers, focused specialist stores, brands selling direct to consumers and alternatives to conventional retail such as rental, resale and subscriptions.
  • Last year, our weekly Store Openings & Closures Tracker recorded 921 store closures by major UK chains. We expect this number to rise in 2018, led by structurally challenged generalist stores.
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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending NRF 2018 Retail’s Big Show in New York City this week. With more than 35,000 attendees from 95 countries, including 18,000 retailers and more than 600 exhibitors, the trade show is one of the biggest in the retail industry. Below are our key takeaways from the first day of the event.

  • Intel demonstrated several solutions—not products—for retail, all of which are based on data.
  • Factoring weather data into decisions can help companies forecast more accurately, reduce inventory, increase efficiency and raise net income, according to Planalytics and JDA.
  • Walmart still views retailing as a people business and the company continues to feel the presence of its late founder, Sam Walton.
  • Instagram is increasingly becoming a platform through which businesses can connect with consumers.
  • In e-commerce, international retailers are gaining advantages in terms of customer experience rather than price.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year-to-date 2018, the number of US store closure announcements stands at 2,781 and the number of store openings is 1,278.
  • Walmart is closing 63 Sam’s Club stores.
  • RadioShack exits bankruptcy and will keep up to 28 stores.
  • Lands’ End plans to open another four to six stores this year.
  • Neiman Marcus CEO Karen Katz steps down.
  • Year to date in the UK, there have been 48 store closure announcements and 335 store opening announcements.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses opportunities for department store retailers in 2018 as well as some early conclusions about the holiday season’s strong results.
  • Instead of coal for Christmas, US retailers got a war chest. Their corporate tax rate of 35% will drop to 21%, handing them a free-cash-flow boost as they fight for survival in the Amazon era.
  • In December, UK total retail sales grew by 1.4%, which was slightly lower than November’s 1.5% increase. Comparable sales growth was 0.6%, flat versus the November figure.
  • oBike, a bike-sharing startup founded in Singapore a year ago, has just reached 10 million rides. However, the company still lags behind Ofo and Mobike, its far-larger rivals from China.

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Executive Summary

  • Tesco reported UK comparable sales growth of 2.3% in 3Q18, slightly below consensus expectations but up from 2.1% in the prior quarter.
  • In the subsequent six-week Christmas period, Tesco UK saw comp growth moderate to 1.9%.
  • In 3Q18, the company reported its strongest UK hypermarket growth in a number of years. Tesco also noted strong demand in the UK in the core food category over the Christmas peak.

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Executive Summary

  • Marks & Spencer (M&S) reported weak comparable sales growth in its core UK divisions in 3Q18.
  • M&S’s UK Clothing and Home segment saw a 3Q18 comp decline of 2.8%, weakening from a decline of 0.1% in 2Q18.
  • Its UK Food division saw a 3Q18 comp decline of 0.4%, also down from a 0.1% decline in 2Q18, despite significant inflation in the UK grocery market.

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Executive Summary

  • Boohoo.com reported group revenue of £228.2 million in 3Q18 (the four months ended December 31, 2017), up 93% year over year at constant currency.
  • Group retail gross margin softened by 20 basis points to 54.2% during the period.
  • Boohoo.com raised its group revenue guidance for the third time this fiscal year. The company now expects FY18 revenue growth of 90%, versus 80% previously.

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Executive Summary

The FGRT team is attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Below, we provide our takeaways from Day 2 of the event:

  • 5G wireless will transform business and society with greater bandwidth, lower latency and faster speeds.
  • Media consumption is shifting from satellite TV to mobile video and streaming services, changing the business of content distribution and the media landscape.
  • Health and fitness apps and equipment are participating in an evolving landscape, with numerous opportunities internationally and with millennials.
  • Kate Spade debuted a new line of smartwatches in collaboration with Fossil Group.
  • Lenovo and Google introduced a new standalone virtual reality (VR) headset based on Google’s Daydream platform (its VR platform), called the Lenovo Mirage Solo.

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Executive Summary

2017 saw the retail industry change at breakneck speed, and the pace of change is unlikely to slow in 2018. This year, we expect shoppers to continue to turn to new retailers, marketplaces and channels, while retailers look for further collaborations to future-proof their offerings. We also think that new technologies will enable new retail experiences that drive traffic and build brand loyalty.

We see five key demands from consumers and retailers underpinning change in the retail industry in 2018:

  • I Want to Shop on My Terms: Consumers will switch more of their spending from conventional retail to new and alternative formats and channels, as retailers scramble to offer new choices and reshape their physical estates.
  • Make My Life Better: Shoppers will value life-improving services from retailers and technology firms.
  • Give Me a Better Experience: Brands, retailers and technology firms will offer new types of interactions, rewards and experiences.
  • Let’s Collaborate: Rapid industry change will prompt retailers to collaborate with technology giants (including Amazon), logistics technology vendors and social media influencers.
  • Make It Faster: Retailers will leverage technologies as diverse as the blockchain and 3D printing to make their supply chains smarter and, as a result, more fit for a more competitive market.
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Executive Summary

Alibaba’s investments in retail:

  • Alibaba has significantly invested in or acquired various brick-and-mortar businesses in China, including Suning, Intime Retail Group, Sanjiang Shopping Club and Sun Art Retail Group.
  • The company is already operating automated cashless retail stores in China
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Executive Summary

  • UK grocery retailer Sainsbury’s reported comparable sales growth of 1.1% in 3Q18, ahead of the consensus estimate. This includes its general-merchandise banner Argos.
  • The company grew grocery sales by 2.3%, with online groceries up 8.2% and convenience store sales up 7.3%.
  • Sainsbury’s raised its guidance for full-year underlying profit.

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