Executive Summary

This report forms part of our Innovator Intelligence series, which focuses on emerging companies that are disrupting traditional retail and fueling innovation across the retail value chain.

Market Beyond provides retailers and brands insights about product-level performance and customer shopping behavior across all major e-commerce platforms. It uses artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning software, to sort and analyze billions of unique shopper journeys. The company has access to millions of online shoppers with a variety of age and geographical demographics. Market Beyond can help retailers and brands understand their shoppers’ paths to purchase, provide e-tail insights and reveal a company’s true online market share.

  • E-commerce continues to take greater portions of total retail sales. In the US, online retail made up about 13.7% of total retail in 2018, according to Euromonitor International, and is expected to make up 22.2% of total retail sales in the US by 2023.
  • Many retailers and brands outsource e-commerce operations entirely. While these retailers and brands often see double-digit gains in online sales, few have real visibility into their competitive performance. While they might have solid sales growth, the companies may still be ceding online market share to competitors — include e-commerce giants such as Amazon, and any of the numerous smaller players that have can take advantage of e-commerce’s low barriers to entry. Market Beyond gives insights to companies down to the product level, allowing retailers and brands to optimize their competitive strategies.
  • AI has been on the rise in retail, even if the retail industry has been slow to adopt the technology. The fragmented nature of e-commerce platforms and marketing campaigns, and the vast amount of recorded data about consumers online, makes it a ripe field for AI innovation. Market Beyond uses AI and machine learning software to sort through billions of shopper journeys to provide insights about companies’ products online.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. This report focuses on e-commerce.

  • In the U.S. and China, the e-commerce market continues to consolidate as leading platforms such as Amazon and Tmall build market share.
  • E-commerce players continue to disrupt traditional retail. In the U.S., online operators are expanding offline, while in China, e-commerce companies are more focused on leveraging technology to enhance the retail experience.
  • In both the U.S. and China, uncertainties due to trade tensions and a slowing domestic economy may heavily impact the e-commerce sector.
  • Despite the fluid macroeconomic environment, we see opportunities in e-commerce, especially in terms of budget offerings and lower-income consumers, who number more than 1 billion in China.
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Executive Summary

Our insights from Zalando’s 2019 Capital Markets Day include:  

  • Zalando wants to attract more brands to its Partner Program and to sell fulfillment and marketing services to more of them — creating a stronger multibrand proposition. 
  • The company aims to triple gross merchandise volume (GMV) between 2018 and 2023/24. 
  • Zalando will “de-average” its approach to customer relationships and build stronger relationships with higher-spending shoppers.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the adaptive clothing and footwear market, which represents a $47.3 billion opportunity in the US.
  • Canada-based retailer Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) is set to close all 37 of its Home Outfitters stores in Canada this year. The retailer is also considering closing up to 20 of its 133 Saks OFF 5TH stores in the US, following a strategic review of the business.
  • The UK’s Marks & Spencer (M&S) and Ocado Group announced the creation of a 50/50 joint venture that will see M&S acquire a 50% share of Ocado’s UK retail business for up to £750 million ($997.5 million).
  • Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is collaborating with Japan’s Rakuten to develop unstaffed delivery options in Japan. Under the partnership, Rakuten will use JD’s drones and autonomous robots for delivery.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2019, US retailers have announced 4,309 store closures and 1,586 store openings.
  • Gap, L Brands and JCPenney announced further closures as we went to press.
  • Southeastern Grocers will close 22 stores.
  • E.L.F. Beauty will shut down all its 22 stores over an unspecified period.
  • Hudson’s Bay Company plans to shut 20 Saks Off 5th stores over an unspecified period.
  • Year to date in 2019, UK retailers have announced 285 store closures and 327 store openings.
  • HMV has reopened nine stores.
  • Brooks Brothers has opened its third UK store
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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour reported FY18 total sales of €77.9 billion, down 3.1% year over year, but up 3.3% at constant exchange rates, and above the consensus estimate of €76.6 billion by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported adjusted net income of €802 million, down 11.2% year over year, but ahead of the StreetAccount consensus of €747.8 million.
  • Carrefour raised its targets for cost reduction from €2.0 billion to €2.8 billion on an annual basis by 2020.

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Executive Summary

  • JCPenney 4Q18 revenues were $3.67 billion, down 9.5% year over year, below the consensus estimate of $3.72 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $0.18, down 64.7% from last year and above the consensus estimate of $0.11. 
  • On a shifted basis, comparing sales for the weeks ending Feb 2, 2019, with the weeks ending Feb 3, 2018, comparable sales decreased 4%. On an unshifted basis, comparable sales decreased 6.0%, and for the full year, comparable sales decreased 3.1%. 
  • The company plans to close 18 full-line stores and nine ancillary home and furniture stores in 2019. The company expects to be cash flow positive for fiscal year 2019.

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Executive Summary

  • L Brands 4Q18 revenues were $4.85 billion, up 0.6% year over year and lower than the consensus estimate of $4.91 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $2.14, higher than the consensus estimate of $2.08.
  • Comparable sales increased 3% for the 13-week quarter. By brand, Victoria’s Secret comparable sales decreased 3% in the fourth quarter, compared to a 1% decrease in the fourth quarter in the year ago period. Bath & Body Works comparable sales for stores and direct sales increased 12% in the quarter, compared to a 6% increase in the year ago period.
  • The company expects 2019 full-year earnings per share (EPS) to be $2.20-2.60, including breakeven EPS in 1Q19.

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Executive Summary

  • Farfetch’s 4Q18 revenues grew 54.6% to $195.5 million; GMV rose 50.1%, or $155.8 million to $466.5 million.
  • Active customers rose 44.6% and the number of orders increased 57.8% as average transaction value declined 4.9% or $33.10 to $637.30.
  • Outlook for 2019 includes 40% YoY growth in GMV and full year adjusted EBITDA margin of (18%) – (19%).

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Executive Summary

  • Zalando reported a strong conclusion to the year with revenues up 24.6% year over year in 4Q18. 4Q18 adjusted EBIT came in comfortably ahead of expectations. Full-year revenue growth and EBIT were in line with guidance.
  • The company will begin reporting gross merchandise volume (GMV) to reflect the scale of the business.
  • Average basket sizes declined further and the fulfilment cost ratio climbed again in 2018.

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team will attend and participate in Shoptalk 2019 March 3-6 in Las Vegas. The event brings together more than 8,000 attendees and more than 300 speakers to discuss rapid evolution of how consumers discover, shop and buy.

On March 3, Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig will emcee a startup pitch competition featuring 15 early-stage technology companies. Judges will select two winners for a $25,000 prize.

Participating startups all have:

  • $3 million or less in funding.
  • Four years or less since founding.
  • Scalable and innovative solutions for physical retail, omnichannel and e-commerce.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) solutions.

Below, we look at the last company that will compete: DeepMagic.

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Executive Summary

  • 4Q18 sales rose 12.6% driven by a 14.1% increase in wholesale revenues and a 7.9% increase in retail sales. Same store sales rose 4% reflecting a 30% increase in SteveMadden.com sales growth. 
  • Adjusted operating profit contracted 80 bps to 9.2% of sales on 90 bps gross margin contraction in the wholesale segment offset by modest gross margin improvement in the retail segment. 
  • Adjusted EPS increased 31.3% to $0.42. Adjusted EPS guidance for 2019 is $1.75-1.83 versus adjusted EPS of $1.83. Guidance includes $0.21 in expected impact from the Payless ShoeSource bankruptcy ($0.16) and a higher tax rate ($0.05). 

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Executive Summary

  • Best Buy reported fiscal 4Q19 adjusted EPS of $2.72, up 12.4% year over year and beating the $2.56 consensus estimate. Revenues were $14.80 billion, down 3.7% year over year but beating the $14.68 billion consensus estimate.
  • Domestic comps increased 3.0%, beating the 1.8% consensus estimate, while international comps increased 2.5%. Domestic online comps increased 9.3%.
  • The company offered FY20 revenue guidance of $42.9-$43.9 billion, above the $42.8 billion consensus estimate, and adjusted EPS guidance of $5.45-$5.65, with the midpoint above the $5.49 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • Ahold Delhaize reported FY18 net sales of €62.8 billion, up 2.5% at constant exchange rates, and slightly above the consensus estimate of €62.5 billion by S&P Capital IQ.
  • The company reported diluted EPS from continuing operations of €1.52, up 6.3% year over year and above the consensus estimate of €1.49 by CapitalIQ.
  • Ahold Delhaize expects underlying earnings per share from continuing operations to grow by high single digits as a percentage compared to last year. 

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