Executive Summary

With this inaugural report in our Insights from China series, we kick off a weekly series of updates in which Coresight Research analysts provide a weekly review of what’s happening in China – and what international brands and retailers need to know. We’ll cover areas such as policies, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape – as they affect international companies selling to Chinese consumers or looking to enter the market. 

This week, we look at how the changing nature of Chinese outbound tourism will affect retailers worldwide. 

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Executive Summary

  • TJX Cos. fiscal 4Q19 revenues were $11.13 billion, up 1.5% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $11.02 billion. The company reported adjusted EPS of $0.68, down 1.4% year over year but exceeding the high end of its guidance range of $0.66-0.67 and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • The company saw comparable store sales growth of 6%, versus a 4% increase in the same period last year. For the full fiscal year, comparable sales increased 6%, versus a 2% increase the previous year.
  • For 1Q20, TJX Cos. anticipates diluted EPS of $0.53-0.54, compared with $0.56 in the same period last year and below the consensus estimate of $0.58. The company estimates comparable sales growth of 2%-3% on a consolidated basis and growth of 3-4% at Marmaxx. For fiscal year 2020, the company expects EPS of $2.55-2.60, compared with the consensus estimate of $2.60.

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Executive Summary

  • Lowe’s reported adjusted fiscal 4Q18 EPS of $0.80, up 8.1% year over year and beating the consensus estimate by a penny. Revenues were $15.65 billion, up 1.0% but below the $15.75 consensus estimate.
  • Comps were 1.7%, below the 2.1% consensus estimate. US home-improvement comps increased 2.4%. Online comps increased 11%.
  • For FY19, the company guided for 2% sales growth (slightly above the 1.8% consensus estimate), 3% comps growth and EPS of $6.00-$6.10, in line with the $6.04 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team will attend and participate in Shoptalk 2019 March 3-6 in Las Vegas. The event brings together more than 8,000 attendees and more than 300 speakers to discuss rapid evolution of how consumers discover, shop and buy.

On March 3, Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig will emcee a startup pitch competition featuring 15 early-stage technology companies. Judges will select two winners for a $25,000 prize.

Participating startups all have:

  • $3 million or less in funding.
  • Four years or less since founding.
  • Scalable and innovative solutions for physical retail, omnichannel and e-commerce.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) solutions.

Below, we look at two of the companies that will compete: LexSet and Mystore-E.

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Executive Summary

This presentation was given at the OAC (Open Air Center) Summit hosted by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), titled “Changing Tides – New Approaches to Research and Technology in a Shifting Demographic Landscape” and featured industry experts discussing the changing demographic landscape and its effect on the shopping center industry.

Topics include:

  • Retail trends including reshaping physical retail, fresh thinking and changing demands
  • Trends from East to West, including growth in China and India
  • The changing definition of luxury in Asia
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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s fiscal 4Q18 revenues were $8.46 billion, down 2.5% year over year but beating the consensus estimate of $8.44 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $2.73, excluding special items, down 4.2% from the year ago period but beating the consensus estimate of $2.53.
  • The company saw comparable sales growth of 0.4% on an owned basis, and 0.7% on an owned plus licensed basis. The company had its fifth consecutive quarter of positive comp sales and achieved a full year of positive comparable sales growth for the first time since 2014.
  • The company announced a multiyear restructuring program to streamline management structure and fund reinvestment in the business.
  • For FY19, management said the company anticipates comparable sales growth of flat to to 1% for owned stores and owned and licensed stores. The company expects net sales to be approximately flat, and diluted earnings per share to be $3.05-3.25.

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team will attend and participate in Shoptalk 2019 March 3-6 in Las Vegas. The event brings together more than 8,000 attendees and more than 300 speakers to discuss rapid evolution of how consumers discover, shop and buy.

On March 3, Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig will emcee a startup pitch competition featuring 15 early-stage technology companies. Judges will select two winners for a $25,000 prize.

Participating startups all have:

  • $3 million or less in funding.
  • Four years or less since founding.
  • Scalable and innovative solutions for physical retail, omnichannel and e-commerce.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) solutions.

Below, we look at two of the companies that will compete: Cymbio and Spruce Labs.

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Executive Summary

  • Home Depot reported 4Q18 EPS of $2.09, up 37.2% and beating the $2.16 consensus estimate (excluding a $0.16 charge.) Revenues were $26.49 billion, slightly below consensus.
  • Comps were up 3.2%, missing the 4.5% consensus estimate. US comps were up 3.7%.
  • The company guided for 2019 comp growth of 5.0% and sales growth of 3.3%, in line with consensus, and EPS of $10.03, below the $10.26 consensus estimate.
  • Separately, the Commerce Department announced that December housing starts fell 11.2% year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis. Housing permits increased 0.3% year over year.

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Executive Summary

  • The UK’s Marks & Spencer (M&S) and Ocado Group have announced the creation of a 50/50 joint venture.
  • M&S is acquiring a 50% share of Ocado’s UK retail business, for a total consideration of up to £750 million.
  • A combined M&S-Ocado service offers M&S a way to sell online while circumventing the unfavorable economics of its typically small basket sizes.

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Executive Summary

  • Associated British Foods (ABF) issued a pre-close trading update for 1H19, which ends March 2, 2019. This report focuses on Primark, ABF’s retail division.
  • First-half comparable sales at Primark are expected to be down 2% and total sales are expected to be up 4% both as reported and at constant currency; both figures are broadly in line with consensus.
  • UK comparable sales are expected to be flat year over year. Eurozone comps are expected to be down 3%, with Germany continuing to prove weak.

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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • Suning.com acquired all 37 department stores of leading Chinese property developer Wanda Group and will convert the stores to smart retail formats.
  • Alibaba’s digital payment solution Alipay can now be used at US pharmacy chain Walgreens stores, making it easier for people visiting from China to shop there.
  • Alibaba acquired an 8% stake in Bilibili, a Chinese online video platform targeting young people.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team will attend and participate in Shoptalk 2019 March 3-6 in Las Vegas. The event brings together more than 8,000 attendees and more than 300 speakers to discuss rapid evolution of how consumers discover, shop and buy.

On March 3, Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig will emcee a startup pitch competition featuring 15 early-stage technology companies. Judges will select two winners for a $25,000 prize.

Participating startups all have:

  • $3 million or less in funding.
  • Four years or less since founding.
  • Scalable and innovative solutions for physical retail, omnichannel and e-commerce.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) solutions.

Below, we look at two of the companies that will compete: ShoppingGives and Fillogic.

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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of February 15, the IRS had received 39.7 million tax returns, down 4.8% year over year.
  • A total of 23.5 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 26.5% year over year), totaling $62.0 billion (down 38.8% year over year) and averaging $2,640 (down $529 or 16.7% year over year).
  • The drop is in returns filed is likely due to confusion from tax law changes, combined with reduced availability of IRS agents due to the government shutdown. Given a solid US economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, now that the disruption from the government shutdown has been resolved.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Which US Age Group Is Most Willing to Pay More for Clothing Produced in an Environmentally Friendly Way?

A new Coresight Research survey shows US consumers ages 60 and above are the most willing to pay more for environmentally friendly clothing, followed closely by the 18-29 age group.

Executive Summary

  • Wayfair reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $(1.12), beating the $(1.28) consensus estimate. Revenues were $2.01 billion, up 40.0% and slightly beating the $1.97 billion consensus.
  • U.S. Direct Retail accounted for 85% of revenues and grew 39.2%. International Direct Retail accounted for 14% of revenues and grew 49.8%.
  • The company guided for 1Q19 revenues of $1.87–1.915 billion, in line with the consensus estimate of $1.89 billion.

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