Executive Summary

On April 1, 2019, nonprofit organization Goodwill Industries of Greater New York and Northern New Jersey (Goodwill NYNJ) announced a partnership with technology startup Price Technologies (Price) to offer more opportunities for shoppers to buy secondhand items.

  • Price developed a browser extension for Goodwill NYNJ, which alerts shoppers browsing for items on popular sites that the same product they are looking for is available secondhand on the nonprofit organization online shopping portal ShopGoodwill.com.
  • The partnership between Goodwill NYNJ and Price should help the nonprofit organization to further expand its online market share by encouraging shoppers browsing for new items online to consider secondhand alternatives.
  • Through its online shopping portal ShopGoodwill.com, Goodwill NYNJ in the dynamic online product resale market, often termed re-commerce. Resale is expected to significantly outperform total retail: ThredUP’s 2019 Resale Report forecasts US apparel resale to grow at an average annual rate of 16% in the five years through 2023, compared to average annual growth of 3% for retail apparel over the same period.

Executive Summary

Thanks to its enhanced mobile connectivity, 5G promises to help significantly advance the application of technology in retail operations.

  • 5G will deliver faster speeds and more capacity and responsiveness compared with previous generations of mobile technology.
  • 5G will increase scalability of Internet of Things (IoT) systems, improve their operations and give rise to new use cases.
  • 5G should unleash the full potential of data–intense technology in retail, such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and reality technologies, empowering existing use cases and delivering new applications.
  • The commercial introduction of the new technology is expected to be completed between 2019 and 2020. Once implemented, 5G should expand rapidly and reach 1.3 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by 2023, according to estimates by trade organization 5G Americas.
  • 5G will make the Internet more accessible, making it easier, more efficient and more convenient to shop online, and in turn generating additional revenue for US e-commerce
    of $12 billion per year by 2021, according to technology firm Adobe.
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Executive Summary

  • Seven & i reported a 14.6% increase in net sales and a 5.1% increase in operating income for FY19, ended February 28, 2019.
  • The overseas convenience store business saw a good performance, with operating income increasing by 22.3% year over year. In US dollars, 7-Eleven North America grew net sales by 29.4%, with a 49.3% increase in gasoline sales and a 13.0% increase in merchandise sales.
  • Superstore Ito-Yokado saw operating income increase by 53.0% year over year.
  • Both supermarket chain York-Benimaru and department-store chain Sogo & Seibu saw a fall in operating income, down 9.0% and 35.7%, respectively.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures are approaching the total we recorded for the full year 2018. So far this year, US retailers have announced 5,846 store closures and 2,622 store openings. This compares to 5,854 closures and 3,239 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Five Below will open 145–150 stores in its fiscal 2019.
  • Signet Jewelers plans to close approximately 150 stores in 2019 while opening 20–25 stores.
  • Charlotte Russe has sold its brands to YM and Mamiye Brothers while its liquidation continues.
  • Year to date, UK retail announced store openings and closures are running almost neck and neck, with announced store closures at 326 and store openings at 347.
  • Stationery chain Office Outlet has targeted 16 store closures by April 10, putting 161 jobs at risk.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the outlook for US retail bankruptcies and store closures, and urges retailers to consider fresh approaches to their physical stores. 
  • US retail sales declined a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month over month in February. That was well below the 0.2% increase that economists expected.
  • UK department store retailer Debenhams this week confirmed a £200 million ($265 million) refinancing plan, of which £101 million ($134 million) will be available immediately to begin restructuring. 
  • JD.com has launched a tool called the Online Pricing Optimizer in collaboration with American market measurement company Nielsen.

Executive Summary

  • Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) reported 4Q18 revenues of C$2.9 billion, down 5.5% year over year and below the consensus estimate of C$3.18 billion. The company reported adjusted 4Q18 EPS of C$0.41, up 583.3% from the year-ago period.
  • For the quarter, group comparable sales were down by 1.4%. By banner, Saks Fifth Avenue comps were up by 3.9%, DSG (which includes Hudson’s Bay, Lord & Taylor, and Home Outfitters) comparable sales were down by 5.2%, and comparable sales at Saks OFF 5TH were down by 2.1%.
  • The company did not offer 1Q19 or full year guidance.

Executive Summary

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance reported 2Q19 revenues of $34.5 billion, in line with the consensus estimate and up 4.6% year over year. Diluted EPS came in at $1.24, down 8.8% year over year and below the consensus estimate of $1.50.
  • Comps for the Retail Pharmacy USA business fell 3.8%, while Retail Pharmacy International comps decreased 1.4%.
  • For FY19, Walgreens expects flat adjusted EPS, revised down from 7–12% growth.

Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape.

This week, we look at Italy signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to be the first Group of Seven (G7) country to cooperate on Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our February US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding gasoline and automobiles increased 2.7% year over year in February, a substantial slowing from the revised 4.9% year-over-year increase in January.
  • In February, six out of 12 major sectors saw a sequential slowing in year-over-year growth, while four sectors saw sales decline year over year.
  • The home-improvement sector saw growth slow dramatically, to 1.4% in February from 9.8% in January. Electronics and appliance retailers posted a decline of 3.1%, worsening from a 1.7% fall in January. In February, nonstore retailers saw sales rise 10.0% year over year, marginally lower than the 10.7% reported in January.
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Executive Summary

This report discusses notable US retail bankruptcies in 2017-2018 and examines key factors that led retailers to collapse.

  • Following a large number of bankruptcy filings in 2017, retail failures continued apace in 2018. Several well-known retailers filed for bankruptcy across the two years, including Sears Holdings and Mattress Firm. 2018 witnessed the liquidation of Toys “R” Us and Bon-Ton Stores.
  • Major factors that led to retail bankruptcies include: Saturation of US physical retail space, changing consumer trends, a declining US middle-class population, burgeoning e-commerce sales and rising debt among retail companies.
  • According to a 2019 BDO survey, 52% of US retail executives believe bankruptcies will rise in 2019, while 51% are preparing for an economic downturn.
  • So far in 2019, seven major retailers (with more than $50 million in liabilities) have filed for bankruptcy. Shopko will liquidate its assets and shut all its locations by June.
  • These bankruptcy filings are occurring at a time of solid US retail growth: The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts US retail sales will grow by a solid 3.8-4.4% in 2019, though slower than the 4.3% seen in 2018, despite the possibility of an economic slowdown and the ongoing US-China trade tensions.
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Executive Summary

The 4-5-4 US retail calendar is a guide to the fiscal year ending February 1, 2020. The calendar, used by many US retailers, ensures comparability between years by dividing the year into months based on a ‘4 weeks–5 weeks–4 weeks’ format.

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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 22, the IRS had received 84.1 million tax returns, down 1.9% year over year.
  • Some 65.8 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 2.6% year over year), totaling $191.9 billion (down 2.9% year over year) and averaging $2,915 (down $10 or 0.3% year over year).
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to a recent Tax Returns Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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Executive Summary

Community group buying refers to an e-commerce model of group purchases by residents within the same neighborhood. Companies launched this service on WeChat mini program to tap into the potential for larger, group purchases from people living in close proximity. There were around 100 community group buying platforms as of December 2018, according to consulting firm iResearch.

  • The community group buying model provides services for residents who live in the same community compound via WeChat, including WeChat group and WeChat mini programs.
  • The community group platform normally offers consumables that have constant demand, such as groceries or daily necessities.
  • Community group buying can offer last-mile delivery, leveraging WeChat to bridge between vendors and customers.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  How Much Influence Do Bloggers Have on Apparel Purchases?

In the US, millennials are much more influenced by bloggers than other age groups are: Some 12.4% of millennials say their apparel purchases are influenced by celebrity bloggers.

Executive Summary

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the US retail sector has risen over the past 10 years, in terms of deal value and number of deals, and deals within the mass-merchandiser sector have increased, dominated by several blockbuster deals.

  • North American retail M&A activity has been steady during 2007–2018, with 148 deals valued at than $10.2 billion in 2018.
  • Motivations for mass-merchandiser M&A include: entering adjacent markets, acquiring key technology and increasing scale, and establishing a presence in fast-growing markets such as China and India.
  • Target has historically made small acquisitions for technology or products; however its most recent purchase – of Shipt for $550 million – has also been its largest, enabling faster delivery times.
  • Walmart completed the transformative acquisition of Jet.com in September 2016, which led to a series of product-related acquisitions. The company acted on the high-growth opportunity in India and acquired a majority stake in its leading marketplace, Flipkart, in August 2018.
  • Gaps in product assortments and the appeal of unique, private-label products has also been a driver behind many acquisitions.
  • The environment for continued M&A remains favorable due to healthy stock valuations, relatively low interest rates, increasing competitiveness and volatility in the retail sector.
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