Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. In this report, we look at discount stores, mass merchandisers and warehouse clubs.

  • Macroeconomic data continue to support strong consumption.
  • Consumers embraced “cheap chic” during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008 — and stayed at the value end of the spectrum.
  • Mass merchants are embracing private label, deploying technology such as robots to improve the shopping experience, be more efficient and take on Amazon.
  • Dollar stores continue lead retail in terms of growth in new stores.
  • The group, in general, has not widely embraced e-commerce, however Costco, Target and Walmart are aggressively doing so.
  • Costco is leading the pack in terms of comparable sales growth and driving an acceleration in its ecommerce efforts.
  • Activity in the sector is benefiting from the return of BJ’s Wholesale Club as a public company and startups that are leveraging e-commerce to take on the incumbents.
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Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported fiscal 4Q19 adjusted EPS of $1.41, up 6.0% from $1.33 in the year-ago quarter and beating the $1.33 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $138.8 billion, up 1.9% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • U.S. comp sales increased 4.2%, ahead of the 3.1% consensus estimate, on a 0.9% traffic increase and a 3.3% ticket increase. Walmart U.S. e-commerce grew 43%.
  • Walmart maintained sales guidance of at least 3% and updated EPS guidance to a low single-digit decline (but up by the low-mid single digits excluding Flipkart).

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Executive Summary

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of February 8, the IRS had received 28.8 million tax returns, down 6.9% year over year. 
  • A total of 11.4 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 15.8% year over year), totaling $22.2 billion (down 23.2% year over year) and averaging $1,949 (down 8.7% year over year).
  • The drop is in returns filed is likely due to confusion from tax law changes, combined with reduced availability of IRS agents due to the government shutdown. Given a solid U.S. economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, once the disruption from the government shutdown is resolved.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. 

  • Connectivity and a health and wellness focus are the consumer lifestyles underpinning changing trends in the apparel and footwear sector. 
  • The global apparel and footwear market achieved a 3.9% five-year CAGR in the 2013-2018 period, as fast fashion curtailed value growth. 
  • Sports footwear drove sector growth and has become the social currency of today’s youth, benefiting from high profile collaborations across brands and celebrities/sports figures. 
  • Industry growth is projected to accelerate in the 2018-2023 period, reflecting a growing global middle class, with India and Asia driving much of the increment as per capita apparel and footwear ownership increases. 
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. In this report, we review the U.S. department-store sector.

  • In 2018, sales made through U.S. department stores totaled $76.2 billion according to Euromonitor International. In-store sector sales are forecast to decrease at a compound annual growth rate of 5.8% to 2023, reaching $56.6 billion.
  • Department stores are expanding off-price businesses with the hope of attracting customers to full-price merchandise, too. Nordstrom reported that 6.5 million new customers came to Nordstrom through its off-price business in 2018 and one-third of those customers become full-price customers.
  • Department stores are pairing up with unique partners including Aldi and Amazon to drive traffic.
  • Department stores are popular among millennials aged 25–34: According to Prosper Insights & Analytics, 47.8% of millennials shopped at a department store over Thanksgiving weekend, 2018 — a higher proportion than was recorded for any other age group.
  • We predict department stores will adopt smaller formats, continue to rightsize and collaborate with unique partners. 
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  Who Is Benefiting from the Absence of Toys “R” Us?

Walmart leads in toys, but Amazon grew shopper numbers at the fastest clip.

Executive Summary

  • Unicharm reported FY18 revenue of ¥688.3 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of ¥689.2 billion and up 7.3% from FY17.
  • Revenues increased across segments, with personal care up 7.9% year over year.
  • Asia (except Japan) was a key region driving the company’s top-line growth, with 10.0% revenue growth in FY18.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly UK Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Highlights from our January UK Retail Sales Report:

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a solid January for U.K. retail sales, with value growth of 3.5% year over year, supported by a 3.2% volume increase.
  • The grocery and clothing sectors enjoyed robust growth, though department stores/mixed-goods retailers turned negative.
  • Total growth was supported by surprisingly large reported increases at DIY stores and health and beauty retailers, partially offset by reported deep declines at furniture retailers, floor coverings specialists, and computers and telecoms retailers. 
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our December US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding fuel and automobiles increased just 1.0% in December, slowing dramatically from the 5.2% growth reported for November. This dragged down total holiday period sales growth (ex fuel and automobiles) to just 2.9% year over year, below many estimates — including our own. 
  • Total seasonally adjusted U.S. retail sales including automobiles and gasoline increased 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in December. This was slower than the 4.0% year-over-year growth we saw in November.
  • All major sectors saw slowing growth in December, with the exception of clothing stores and electronics and appliance retailers. Clothing stores proved particularly robust, with year-over-year growth nudging up to 4.7% in December, from 4.6% in November. Non-store retailers, which include high-growth Internet retailers, saw growth slow to 3.7% in December.
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Executive Summary

The uncertainty looming over U.K. businesses in the run-up to Brexit appears not to have threatened London’s position as the top startup ecosystem in Europe.

  • The U.K. boasts more than double the number of venture capital (VC) deals than its closest European counterparts.
  • The U.K. startup ecosystem — led by companies in London — continues to attract the lion’s share of VC investments in Europe.
  • London has by far the highest concentration of startups in Europe and enjoys a number of hard-to-copy favorable factors, which should safeguard the city’s leading position whether the U.K leaves the EU with or without a deal.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market.

  • An evolving definition of luxury and new luxury consumers set the stage for dynamic changes in global personal luxury goods sector.
  • The global personal luxury goods sector achieved a 4.2% five-year CAGR in the 2012-2017 period. The top 15 industry participants hold close to 50% of the market on a combined basis.
  • Industry participants have anticipated a slowdown in the last few years. However, we are seeing more of a market shift as Asia-based transactions are syphoning off top-line growth in the more developed luxury markets of Europe and the U.S.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses eight things we can learn about retailing from China.
  • Walmart is laying claim to a growing market for furniture products sold online with a new private-label brand called MoDRN. The brand is geared to customers who want trendier furniture at lower prices.
  • JCPenney announced it will stop selling appliances and furniture in its U.S. stores as of Feb. 28. The company noted it will continue to sell appliances and furniture on its website and in some stores in Puerto Rico.
  • China’s retail sales during the Lunar New Year holiday grew 8.5% year over year, according to the country’s Ministry of Commerce, but the pace of growth over the holiday period was the slowest since 2005.

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Executive Summary

  • Canada Goose reported adjusted EPS of C$0.96 for fiscal 3Q19, beating the consensus estimate of C$0.82, and revenue of C$399.3 million, beating the consensus estimate of C$361.0 million.
  • Gross margin was 64.4%, up 80 basis points year over year. Gross profit increased from C$169.1 million to C$179.0 million, driven by a higher proportion of sales being direct to consumer.
  • Based on the strong results in 3Q19, the company revised its outlook for FY19. The company expects revenue growth in the mid- to high thirties on a percentage basis, adjusted EPS growth of mid- to high forties on a percentage basis.

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Executive Summary

  • Taubman Centers reported 4Q18 adjusted FFO of $0.91 per share, ahead of the $0.89 consensus estimate. Revenues were $167.5 million, down 2.7% year over year.
  • Separately, the company announced plans to sell 50% of its interests in three Asia shopping centers to the Blackstone Group for $480 million, to close throughout 2019.
  • For 2019, Taubman expects EPS of $0.84-1.08 (versus $0.95 in 2018) and FFOPS of $3.62-3.74 (below $3.83 in 2018), based on the assumption of 2% growth in NOI.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2019, U.S. retailers have announced 2,187 store closures and 1,503 store openings.
  • Payless is likely to shutter most or all of its stores.
  • Ikea has opened a new store in Live Oak, Texas.
  • Year to date in 2019, U.K. retailers have announced 284 store closures and 315 store openings.
  • Superfi has shut all six of its stores.
  • Ikea has opened a new store in Greenwich.
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