Executive Summary

  • Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) reported 2H18 gross rental income of €1.22 billion, up 33.7% year over year. Adjusted recurring earnings per stapled share (AREPS) were €6.34, up 7.6%. FY18 AREPS were €12.92, exceeding guidance of €12.75-12.90.
  • NRI like-for-like growth was 4.0% in continental Europe for the year and 3.4% in the U.K. U.S. comparable net operating income (NOI) declined 1.6%, but just 0.3% for flagships.
  • For 2019, the company guided for AREPS of €11.80-12.00, growth of 4-5%.

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Executive Summary

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, total retail and food-service sales in China during the Lunar New Year period (February 4-10) rose to ¥1.0 trillion (US$148.7 billion), growing by 8.5% year over year.

  • Lunar New Year’s Eve dinners, family reunion feasts and dinners with relatives and friends dominated festival dining consumption, and the number of orders for fully- or half-cooked dinners sold online rose noticeably.
  • This year’s 8.5% growth in holiday sales was the slowest since 2005, indicating that Chinese consumers are becoming increasingly frugal amid uncertainty caused by the U.S.-China trade war, the changing macro environment and a slowing Chinese economy.

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Executive Summary

  • Kering grew 2018 revenues 26.3%, as Gucci’s momentum continued.
  • Gross margin expansion and operating leverage resulted in a 400-bps operating margin increase to 28.9% of sales.
  • Kering’s use of AI to identify and target high potential customers is proving almost twice as successful as selections made by sales associates, and Kering is rolling this out as part of its transformational initiatives.

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Executive Summary

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of February 1, the IRS had received 16 million tax returns, down 12.4% year over year.
  • A total of 4.7 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 24.3% year over year), totaling $8.7 billion (down 30.6% year over year) and averaging $1,865 each (down 8.4% year over year).
  • The drop in returns filed is likely due to confusion ensuing from tax law changes, combined with reduced availability of IRS agents due to the government shutdown. Given a solid U.S. economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, once the disruption from the government shutdown is resolved.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. This report reviews beauty brands and retailers.

  • The $133-billion global skincare market is the largest beauty category, comprising 29% of the global market in 2018. The skincare category is expected to grow at a 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) until 2022. We expect beauty brands and retailers to launch even more new product formulations such as dermocosmetics and products containing CBD oil.
  • L’Oréal is the global beauty brand leader with 9.7% of the beauty and personal skincare market – the largest of any brand. Procter & Gamble holds second position with 7.9%, and Unilever is third at 7.8%. The top three companies together hold 25.4% of global market share, and the top 10 companies collectively hold 44.9% of the global market.
  • The two beauty categories expected to see the greatest global growth are color cosmetics, expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% to 2022, and baby and child-specific products, growing at a 7% CAGR to 2022.
  • The demand for beauty products in China remains high. Alibaba’s Tmall is teaming up with retailers and brands to bring more beauty products onto its platform.
  • The beauty landscape continues to evolve: Large companies are looking to bolster innovation from independent brands through accelerators, incubators, acquisitions, expanded platforms and technology adoption. Independent brands are moving from online to offline.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracked 5,524 U.S. store-closure announcements in 2018. While this figure was down 32% from the prior year, the number of store closure announcements so far in 2019 is up 23% versus this time last year, with potentially many more on the way due to companies currently in the bankruptcy process and more on the horizon. This report analyzes drivers of store closures, including the following factors:

  • E-commerce continues its relentless share gains in retail, and market forecasts call for this rate to accelerate.
  • Consumer retail spending remains at a high rate, so spending can only decrease from “peak retail.”
  • Retailers in the U.S. continue to open stores at a rapid pace despite flattish store-based retail sales per capita.
  • Interest rates continue to rise in the U.S., putting increasing pressure on retailers with high debt loads.
  • Retail bankruptcies continue at a rapid pace, with the number of filings in the first six weeks of 2019 already at one-third of last year’s total.
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Executive Summary

A fire devastated U.K. online grocery retailer and technology provider Ocado Group’s first robotic distribution center in Andover, England.

  • Ocado said the Andover center handled only 10% of total capacity, but acknowledged the lost capacity would slow sales growth until the company increases capacity elsewhere.
  • Ocado’s existing retail partners are likely to seek reassurances over safety and designs for ongoing customer fulfilment center (CFC) construction could be reviewed. These projects are typically not set to come onstream for a couple of years or more.
  • The fire highlights the risk of the centralized distribution model, which is virtually unique to Ocado in the U.K. online grocery space; most of Ocado’s online grocery rivals in the U.K. rely heavily on in-store picking, dispersing risk of disruption among hundreds of local stores.

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Executive Summary

  • Under Armour reported 4Q18 sales of $1.39 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.38 billion; and, $0.09 adjusted EPS, beating the consensus estimate of $0.04.
  • Sales from apparel and footwear missed the consensus estimates. But accessories, licensing and connected fitness revenues beat the consensus estimates.
  • For FY19, the company expects revenue growth to be 3-4%, reflecting an anticipated low-double-digit percentage increase in its international business, offset by relatively flat results for North America. The company expects to report EPS of $0.31-0.33 in FY19.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Same-Store Sales Report reviews comparable sales metrics reported by Costco, Buckle and Cato.

Highlights from our January US Same-Store Sales report:

  • Costco’s same-store sales growth in January slowed from December 2018 and was lower than consensus.
  • Costco’s international business looked strong, led by growth in Spain, Taiwan and Korea.
  • Among specialty retailers, comparable sales at Buckle and L Brands fell further in January, 2.2% and 1.0% respectively, following declines in December 2018. Cato posted healthy comp growth as it benefitted from favorable weather this year.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. Themes in U.S. retail REITs include:

  • Vacancy rates are declining and rent asking rates are increasing.
  • All malls are not created equal — just 20% of U.S. “A” malls generate 72% of all mall sales.
  • Changes in U.S. store traffic and other metrics remain negative.
  • Store openings and closures are affecting the retail mix.
  • Retail REITs are welcoming more non-traditional occupants, particularly food.
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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments on New Retail in China. 

  • Walmart China launched “Omega8,” an initiative to help tech startups test technology projects.
  • Beauty and health retailer A.S. Watson and Netease’s Yanxuan opened a lifestyle store in Guangzhou.
  • Unilever signed a cooperation agreement with JD Supermarket to develop its New Retail capabilities, including developing new products based on consumer behavior data.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  How Many Mobile Phone Subscriptions Are There in China?

1.57 billion — more than one subscription for every man, woman and child.

Executive Summary

On January 9, 2019, Deborah Weinswig, CEO and Founder of Coresight Research, presented on the subject of “Understanding the Asian Retail Market,” focusing on eight things people can learn from China. These are some of the highlights:

  • Coresight Research’s proprietary CORE framework for AI in retail can help retailers understand where this technology can be deployed in their businesses. The framework consists of: Communication, Optimization of pricing, Rationalization of inventory and Experiential retail.
  • Chinese companies have invested significantly in last-mile delivery systems. 
  • Key opinion leaders, video consumption and a word-of-mouth shopping culture are important to the Chinese shopping journey.
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Executive Summary

  • L’Oréal reported FY18 revenues of €26.93 billion, up 4% year over year and beating the €26.8 billion consensus estimate. L’Oréal reported FY18 EPS of €7.08, up from €6.65 in FY17, but slightly below the €7.11 consensus estimate. 
  • L’Oréal’s comparable sales, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and sales and are expressed at constant exchange rates, grew remarkably by 7.1% in FY18, marking its best year of growth since 2007, following a strong 4Q18 increase of 7.7%.
  • For FY19, consensus calls for revenue and adjusted EPS growth of 6% and 9%, year over year, respectively.

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Executive Summary

  • Coty fiscal 2Q19 revenues were $2.51 billion, down 4.8% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $2.47 billion. Coty reported 2Q19 adjusted EPS of $0.24, up 60% from the year ago period and beating the consensus estimate of $0.22.
  • Sales in the luxury division, the company’s largest division, increased 7.0% year over year, consumer beauty sales decreased 15% year over year, and professional beauty revenues decreased 4% year over year.
  • The company did not provide quantitative EPS and revenue guidance for FY19. However, management said the company anticipates a profit trend recovery in the second half of FY19 and expects FY19 constant currency adjusted operating income will be moderately below FY18 and cash flow positive for FY19.

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