Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. Themes in U.S. home and home improvement include:

  • Interest rates remain on the rise.
  • U.S. consumer confidence appears to have peaked.
  • Consumer spending preferences are still directed at home improvement.
  • Data on housing permits, starts and completions are mixed but remain high.
  • U.S. existing home sales growth is slowing at a faster pace.
  • U.S. home prices are up 5% year to date through November 2018, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
  • Lowe’s senior management changes and reboot promise operational improvements and modernization at the company.
  • RH is positioning itself as much more than just a hardware store; calling its stores “galleries” and seeing itself building a luxury platform and brand with a “discerning level of taste.”
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Executive Summary

On February 1, 2019, Amazon posted its 10-K full-year financial report, giving us a yearly look at its revenues by region. We review Amazon’s growth in the U.K. and Germany in 2018.

  • We estimate that Amazon grew U.K. revenues 23.3% in 2018, just below 2017’s growth of 24.9% and faster than total U.K. Internet retail sales growth of 14.5% in 2018.
  • In Germany, Amazon revenues climbed 12.1% in 2018, according to our calculations. This compared to an estimated 9.4% increase in total Internet retail sales and Amazon Germany’s 17.5% growth in 2017.
  • In 2018, Amazon captured a 31% share of U.K. Internet retail sales and a 47% share of German Internet retail sales, according to Euromonitor International estimates.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses what Amazon’s 10-K form, filed last week, reveals about its international progress, non-e-commerce growth and third-party sales.
  • Simon Property Group, the largest mall owner in the U.S., has been grappling with how to deal with an onslaught of store closures and CEO David Simon said in a call with analysts that the company was “concerned about a few” retail bankruptcies that may occur in the first quarter.
  • U.K. total retail sales grew 2.2% year over year in January, the strongest growth since June, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. Comparable sales increased by 1.8% year over year, driven by strong food sales and price inflation.
  • Alibaba-owned e-commerce company Lazada announced that it will integrate RedMart, a Singapore-based e-grocer, into its platform on Mar. 15. The move is part of Lazada’s efforts to grow its supermarket business in Southeast Asia.

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Executive Summary

  • Tapestry reported flat 2Q19 EPS on a modest 0.9% sales increase.
  • The Coach brand proved nicely profitable with a 30.3% adjusted operating margin while Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman were in transition with early indications of traction.
  • Revenue and EPS guidance modestly reduced reflecting 2Q19 results and the unstable global environment.

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Executive Summary

  • For 4Q18, Skechers reported $1.08 billion in sales, missing the $1.1 billion consensus estimate, and $0.31 EPS, beating the $0.23 consensus estimate.
  • Mainly driven by international stores, comparable same-store sales were up 1.1% in company-owned retail stores during the quarter.
  • The company estimated sales will be $1.275 billion to $1.3 billion and EPS will range from $0.70 to $0.75 in 1Q19.

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Executive Summary

  • Macerich reported adjusted 4Q18 FFOPS of $1.09, in line with the consensus estimate. Revenues were $246.9 million, beating the $244.1 million consensus estimate but down 3.8% year over year.
  • Mall tenant sales per square foot increased 10% to $726 in the year, and same-center operating income grew 4.2% in Q4.
  • The company guided for 2019 adjusted FFO of $3.65-3.73, below the $3.77 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

  • Hanesbrands reported solid 4Q18 sales growth driven by International and Champion.
  • Champion achieved 50%+ sales growth during 4Q excluding the mass channel.
  • Management provided initial guidance for FY19 of 1%-3% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $1.72-$1.80 versus $1.71 adjusted FY18 EPS.

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Executive Summary

  • Brookfield reported 4Q18 FFOPS of $0.43, up 19.0% year over year and beating the $0.38 consensus estimate. Net income was $0.51 per unit, compared to $0.17 in the year-ago quarter.
  • Core-office occupancy increased 60 basis points to 93.5%, and new leases signed featured 8% higher rents than expiring leases.
  • During the quarter, the company disposed of four limited partnership (LP) investments, sold five core assets, made six new LP investments and separately launched a bid to repurchase up to $500 million of BPY units and Class A shares.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2019, U.S. retailers have announced 2,187 store closures and 1,411 store openings.
  • Shopko will shutter 251 stores.
  • Michaels will close all 36 Pat Catan stores
  • Charlotte Russe will shut 94 stores.
  • Year to date in 2019, U.K. retailers have announced 278 store closures and 313 store openings.
  • Brighthouse is set to close 30 stores.
  • HMV will close 27 stores.
  • Oliver Bonas plans is to open eight new stores.
  • Debenhams may shutter 20 stores.
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Executive Summary

  • Capri Holdings beat consensus adjusted EPS in 3Q19, reporting $1.76 versus $1.58. Revenues of $1.44 billion were flat year over year and estimate of $1.46 billion.
  • Michael Kors (MK) Wholesale was a bright spot with 320 bps segment margin expansion despite an 8.3% drop in segment revenue.
  • The Michael Kors brand continues to grow in awareness and followers globally, with more than 44 million social media followers.

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Executive Summary

The Spring Festival, also called the Lunar New Year or Chinese New Year, ushers in a period of spending and celebrations across China and other countries that observe the festival.

  • Early data released by WeChat, China’s most-used messaging app, show that 14.2% of the red packets that were sent on New Year’s Eve used WeChat’s new feature, which allows users to customize their greetings.
  • Those born in the 1990s are the biggest givers and receivers of WeChat’s digital red packets, followed by those born in the 80s and then the 70s.
  • The busiest time for exchanging New Year wishes in China was between 8:00 PM and 9:00 PM on New Year’s Eve (Monday, February 4).
  • China UnionPay saw 81.3% year-over-year growth in the value of interbank transactions on New Year’s Eve.
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Executive Summary

  • Clorox reported revenues of $1.47 billion, matching the consensus estimate and up from $1.42 billion in 2Q18.
  • Major revenue drivers for the company were the cleaning and lifestyle segments, which grew 6% and 25%, respectively. Revenues from the household and international segments declined 4% and 8%, respectively.
  • Clorox reaffirmed its FY19 revenue and EPS growth guidance. The company forecasts revenue growth of 2%–4%. It expects EPS of $6.20–$6.40, representing growth in the range of (0.96)% to 2.24%.

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Executive Summary

  • Estée Lauder reported 2Q19 revenues of $4.0 billion, up 7.0% year over year and beating the $3.9 billion consensus estimate. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.74, compared to $1.52 in the year ago quarter, up 14.5%.
  • Skin care, the company’s largest category at 43% of sales, rose 16% on a reported basis driven by the Estée Lauder, La Mer, Clinique and Origins brands. The Asia Pacific region showed strong growth, with over half of the regions showing double digit growth.
  • The company forecast 3Q19 revenue growth of 5-6%, compared to the consensus estimate of 2.5%. The company raised its full year EPS guidance to $4.92-5.00, versus the prior guidance of $4.73-4.82, compared to the consensus estimate of $4.86.

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Executive Summary

  • Ralph Lauren’s 3Q19 beat on revenues and EPS as the company executed on key strategic initiatives of brand elevation in concert with winning over a new generation of shoppers.
  • Same-store sales increased in all regions, driving a 4% comp; digital revenues rose 20%. Both metrics benefitted from a 9% lift in average unit retail or price (AUR).
  • Brand collaborations and limited-edition releases drove brand excitement and attracted a new generation of shoppers to Ralph Lauren brand.

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