Executive Summary

  • Casino Group reported FY18 net sales of €6 billion, up 4.7% year over year at constant currency (down 2.4% year over year as reported), and largely in line with the consensus estimate of €36.69 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported adjusted diluted EPS of €2.49, up 0.2% year over year at constant currency (down 8.5% year over year as reported), and slightly missing the consensus estimate of €53 recorded by StreetAccount.
  • Casino Group set a target for the next three years of expanding its EBITDA and trading margins for the retail business by 0.2 percentage points per year, and also hopes to grow trading profit for the retail business 10% per year.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date, US retailers have announced 5,279 store closures and 2,395 store openings. This compares to 5,726 closures and 3,243 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Charlotte Russe will shut its entire store network of at least 500 stores.
  • American Eagle Outfitters will open 60-75 Aerie stores. 
  • Stage Stores will shutter 40-60 Stores and convert 70-80 Stores to the Gordmans banner.
  • Burlington will open 50 stores.
  • Z Gallerie has filed for bankruptcy and will shut 17 stores.
  • Tesla reverses its decision to shut all its stores.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 310 store closures and 327 store openings.
  • LK Bennett has entered administration and has closed five stores.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses how blockchain technology could democratize operations and promote cooperation in retail.
  • US retail sales unexpectedly rose in January, increasing 0.2% month over month, lifted by an increase in purchases of building materials and discretionary spending.
  • British online grocery retailer Ocado has begun testing its new one-hour delivery service, Ocado Zoom, in West London. The service is powered by the Stuart same-day delivery platform.
  • Alibaba Group is acquiring a 14% stake in one of China’s leading express carriers, STO Express, in a deal worth $693 million. This is the e-commerce giant’s fourth major investment in a China-based courier company.

Executive Summary

  • Casey’s General Stores reported 3Q19 revenue of $2.0 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $2.2 billion and down 0.3% from 3Q18.
  • Fuel segment revenue fell 4.9% year over year, while revenue in grocery and prepared food increased by 8.2% and 6.5%, respectively.
  • Casey’s General Stores will build 55-60 new stores and acquire at least 20 stores by the end of 2019.

Executive Summary

  • Morrisons reported FY19 revenues of £7 billion, up 2.7% year over year, and slightly missing the consensus estimate of €17.8 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported adjusted diluted EPS of 12.88 pence, up 7.9% year over year, but missed the consensus of 13.1 pence.
  • Morrisons expects £12 million incremental profit from wholesale, services, interest and online, taking the cumulative total to £54 million. The company believes it is on track for its £75-125 million target.

Executive Summary

  • Inditex reported FY18 revenues of €15 billion, lower than the consensus estimate of €26.41 billion and up 3.2% from the year-ago period. The company reported net income of €3.44, up 2.1% from the year ago period.
  • Comparable store sales increased 4.0% in FY18, positive across all regions and brands as well as online and in-store.
  • Management projects comparable sales growth of 4-6% in FY2019.

Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we curate ongoing developments to distill what international brands and retailers need to know about China to succeed in the country. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape – as they affect international companies selling to Chinese consumers or looking to enter the market.

This week, we look at key insights from the recent “Two Sessions” in China, and implications these developments have for foreign businesses in China.

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Executive Summary

  • In 4Q18, Adidas net sales increased 3.5% to €5.2 billion, or 5% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by double-digit gains in Asia Pacific and Greater China.
  • The operating margin contracted 10 bps, reflecting modest gross margin expansion offset by higher marketing and overhead expenditures.
  • For 2019, the company expects net sales to grow 5-8% on a currency neutral basis, and operating margins to expand 50-70 bps. Net income is projected to grow 10-14% to €1.88-1.95 billion.

Executive Summary

The Japanese government has launched an initiative to automate convenience stores nationwide by 2025, in co-operation with five convenience store chains.

  • The government launched the project to tackle the country’s labor shortage and enhance convenience stores’ operational efficiency.
  • Under the plan, the five convenience store chains will automate 50,000 stores by 2025 using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology.
  • There has been wide adoption of RFID technology globally, as it helps better manage inventory control and customer service delivery.
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Executive Summary

On March 5, 2019, Estée Lauder (EL) hosted its Investor Day in New York City.

  • Estée Lauder is gaining share in prestige beauty, growing from 13% in calendar 2009 to 14.4% in calendar 2017.
  • Global per capita spending on prestige beauty is increasing. The company projects the global middle class will grow by 600 million people by 2028, expanding overall spending power by 50%, which will increase opportunities for prestige beauty spending.
  • Innovations and successful product launches accounted for nearly 30% the company’s net sales in the first half of fiscal year 2019.
  • E-commerce represents approximately 30% of Estée Lauder’s business in its top markets. The company expects double-digit ecommerce growth over the next three years.
  • Estée Lauder confirmed its three-year target of 6-8% net sales growth and double-digit EPS growth. The company is continuing its focus on travel retail as a growth opportunity.

Executive Summary

  • Dick’s Sporting Goods 4Q18 revenues were $2.49 billion, down 6.5% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $2.48 ­­billion. The company reported 4Q18 EPS of $1.07, down 3.6% from the year ago period, and above the consensus estimate of $1.06.
  • The company saw consolidated comparable sales growth of (2.2)% for the quarter on a shifted basis compared to (6.5)% from the year ago period, and the consensus estimate of (3.3)%. This was in line with the company’s expectations.
  • For fiscal year 2019, the company expects earnings per share to be in the range of $3.15-3.35, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.34. Management projects consolidated same store sales to be flat to 2%, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.5%.

Executive Summary

  • US Consumers plan to spend an average of $40 this St Patrick’s Day – far less than other holidays such as Valentine’s Day’s $162 average.
  • Average spend has fluctuated over the years, although the proportion of people who say they’ll celebrate has risen.
  • From about 55% in 2009, more than 70% of 18-34 year olds plan to celebrate this year.
  • Older generations are more likely to host a dinner or attend a parade: Younger people are more likely to hit the bars or have a party.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our January US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding fuel and automobiles increased 3.7% year over year in January, growing substantially from the revised 0.1% year-over-year decline reported for December.
  • In January, eight out of 13 major retail sectors saw sequential improvements to year-over-year growth.
  • The home-improvement sector proved particularly robust, with year-over-year growth hitting 8.7% in January, from 1.6% in December. In January, nonstore retailers saw sales rise 7.3% year over year, while sales at grocery stores grew 3.5%.
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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 1, the IRS had received 59.2 million tax returns, down 3.2% year over year.
  • A total of 46.4 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 4.2% year over year), totaling $142.4 billion (down 3.5% year over year) and averaging $3,068 (up $22 or 0.7% year over year).
  • The largest group of taxpayers plans to use refunds to repay debt, followed by savings, travel and other spending categories, according to a survey by website Decluttr.
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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • Alibaba continues to facilitate cross-border payment: AlipayHK users (those with Hong Kong-based accounts) can now use AlipayHK to pay outside of Hong Kong, and some supermarkets in Canada now accept Alipay.
  • Alibaba formed a partnership with Office Depot to target small and medium businesses in the US, and to support cross-border logistics and fulfillment services.
  • JD.com is working with Rakuten to develop unstaffed delivery solutions for the Japanese market.
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