Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference, March 3-6. These are just a few of the innovative technologies we saw at the show:

  • Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) platforms let retailers offer a 3D online shopping experience, making the online experience more like in-store shopping than ever before.
  • Computer vision technology helps customers search and discover products more easily online, while helping retailers more directly target shoppers based on visual media.
  • Localization strategies direct shoppers to stores, making returns easier, connecting the companies to local customers and increasing convenience for shoppers.

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Executive Summary

In this, our third report in our series A Guide to Entering China for Foreign Brands and Retailers, we focus on how foreign brands can use Singles’ Day as a springboard to enter China, leveraging our proprietary data on brands’ sales performance on Singles’ Day 2018 on Tmall. Our findings focus on four categories: women’s wear, women’s skincare, snacks and diapers. 

  • Within women’s wear, top brands such as Uniqlo offered free delivery and used social media to build demand. 
  • For women’s skincare, top brands such as Pechoin leveraged online campaigns and customer reviews. 
  • In the snacks category, the Three Squirrels brand introduced 11 new products through its “Squirrel Made 2018” event and used live streaming to showcase selected products.
  • In the diapers category, top brands such as Pampers collaborated with Tmall to give out free samples.
  • Our data show that Singles’ Day is about more than just price promotions: Social media campaigns, product launches and special events helped build consumer excitement and drive sales on Singles’ Day.

Click here to view more reports about China Market Entry.

 

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Executive Summary

  • Alibaba Group’s business-to-business (B2B) trading platform Alibaba.com announced a strategic collaboration with the US business services and supplies company Office Depot.
  • The collaboration will provide US entrepreneurs and business owners with access to a single online destination to access one of the world’s largest catalogs of goods and services across all product categories.
  • The move helps Alibaba to enter the US market, enables Office Depot to better serve its clients, and empowers US small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to grow by tapping into the global B2B e-commerce market, valued at $23.9 trillion.

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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of February 22, the IRS had received 49.9 million tax returns, down 3.5% year over year.
  • A total of 38.6 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 4.8% year over year), totaling $121.2 billion (down 3.6% year over year) and averaging $3,143 (up $40 or 1.3% year over year).
  • The continuing slow rate of filing is likely due to confusion from tax law changes, combined with reduced availability of IRS agents due to the government shutdown. Given a solid US economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, now that the disruption from the government shutdown has been resolved.
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Executive Summary

  • Personalization is growing in importance to create authentic consumer to brand relationships.
  • Brands and retailers going global are localizing more than ever in other markets.
  • Cutting-edge AI technology will begin to elicit and gauge human emotion – and help brands deepen the customer connection.

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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Why Do Amazon Apparel Shoppers Buy Clothing and Footwear on Amazon?

A Coresight Research proprietary survey shows that ease of browsing is the top reason consumers buy clothing and footwear on Amazon.

Executive Summary

Our survey of US apparel shoppers has uncovered a wealth of insights on Amazon Fashion. Here are our top six findings: 

  • Measured by number of shoppers, Amazon Fashion is the most-shopped apparel retailer in the US, up from second place in 2018. 
  • Apparel shopping rates show signs of peaking among Prime members. Around three-quarters of Prime members bought apparel on Amazon in the past year. However, we recorded a much greater uplift from “have bought” to “expect to buy” among those without Prime membership than among Prime members.
  • Amazon’s private-label collections as a group comprise the fourth-most-bought clothing or footwear “brand” on Amazon and one in six Amazon apparel shoppers surveyed said that they have bought Amazon private-label apparel in the past 12 months.
  • Amazon has established its #1 position by penetrating the heart of the mid-market. Reflecting this, Walmart is now the top retailer that Amazon Fashion shoppers have switched some or all of their apparel spending from, followed closely by Target. 
  • Amazon Fashion shoppers are satisfied with the site’s online experience and cited the ease of browsing and searching as the top reason to buy apparel on the site. Only 13% of shoppers think that the site could be made easier to browse.
  • Amazon apparel shoppers show only average rates of concern with sustainability. Overall, apparel shoppers try to buy from brands with a good environmental record but are less likely to want to pay for sustainable practices. 
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Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 4Q18 revenue of ¥134.8 billion ($19.6 billion), up 22.4% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of ¥132.5 billion. 
  • Operating loss in the quarter narrowed to ¥938.9 million ($136.6 million).
  • The company’s revenue guidance for 1Q19 was ¥118–122 billion, equivalent to 18–22% year-over-year growth.

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Executive Summary

  • Net sales declined 4.7% to $4.4 billion, comps declined 1.6% in full-price and rose 4% in the off-price division.
  • Operating margin was flat at 7.6%, reflecting modest gross margin contraction offset by SG&A expense leverage.
  • For 2019, the company expects net sales to grow 1-2%, lower than the consensus estimate of 2.8%, and projected EPS to be $3.65- to $3.90, ranges in line with the consensus estimate of $3.67. 

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference from March 3-6. 

  • To kick off this year’s conference, Coresight Research Founder and CEO Deborah Weinswig emceed Shoptalk’s Startup Pitch competition. 
  • The competition featured 15 early-stage technology companies, which Weinswig classified into one of four categories: merchandising and marketing solutions; physical retail solutions; fulfillment and post-purchase operations; and, retail e-commerce experiences. 
  • Two winners were chosen, one by the panel of judges and one through audience voting. The winner of the judge’s choice was Chatter Research, a conversational commerce tool tailored to collect consumer post-purchase feedback. The audience’s chose smartphone-based self-checkout solution, Rapitag. 

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Executive Summary

  • Foot Locker 4Q18 revenues were $2.27 billion, up 2.8% year over year, above the consensus estimate of $2.18 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $1.56, beating the consensus estimate of $1.40.
  • Comparable sales increased 9.7% for the quarter.
  • The company plans to close 165 stores in 2019. Management said it expects mid-single digit comparable sales gains and a double digit percentage per share earnings increase.

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Executive Summary

  • Gap reported fiscal 4Q19 revenues of $4.6 billion, down 3% year over year and lower than the $4.7 billion consensus estimate. The company reported 4Q19 EPS of $0.72, up from $0.52 in 4Q18, but below the $0.68 consensus estimate. 
  • The company’s comparable sales were down 1% in 4Q19, compared to a 5% increase in 4Q18.
  • For FY20, Gap forecasts adjusted EPS of $2.40–2.55, excluding costs related to the Gap brand fleet restructuring. The company expects sales to be flat to slightly up, compared to the consensus estimate of up 0.5%.

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Executive Summary

Amazon is reportedly planning to expand its presence in the US grocery market by building new stores it will operate under a banner other than Whole Foods Markets, which it acquired in 2017, and with a more typical product offering. Amazon is also considering acquiring several regional chains. At the same time, the company is expanding its fleet of Whole Foods Market and Amazon Go stores.

  • Amazon plans to open several dozen grocery stores in major US cities, with the first store in Los Angeles at the end of the year, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal. The company has already signed leases for openings next year, and talks are underway for stores in other cities.
  • Amazon is reportedly not planning to open these stores under its Whole Foods Market banner. The new stores are expected to offer a wider, more typical assortment, at lower price points, for example, including items that contain artificial ingredients and other additives.
  • The company is also reportedly considering purchasing retail grocery chains with about a dozen stores each.

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Executive Summary

  • The customer experience across instore, online and mobile is the North Star guiding retailers’ and brands’ digital transformation. Corporate cultures are likely to need an overhaul as well, with digital evangelists driving a common language across the organization. 
  • The proliferation of data requires a criteria matrix to parse out what data is meaningful strategically for a retailer: Companies must put data in service to support strategy and improved agility. 
  • Retailers are actively rethinking their store fleets for omnichannel strategies, for consumer engagement and brand building. A localized approach may be more complex, but may yield better ROI and profitability metrics as it delivers a better consumer experience. 

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On March 3-6, the retail world will come together in Las Vegas for one of the most important industry events of the year: Shoptalk. The Coresight Research team will be there – and our CEO Deborah Weinswig will emcee an important session in which 15 retail technology startups will compete to win one of two $25,000 prizes.

Join us in Track Room 4 starting at 1:45 PM, Sunday March 3, for the Startup Pitch session to see for yourself how these 15 companies are seeking to shake up retail. See here for a detailed agenda.

It’s an amazing and challenging time for retail, as consumer expectations shift rapidly, the lines between online and offline blur and startup companies deliver technology that hastens the pace of disruption. Ten years from now, retail will likely look totally different. Now is a time of great opportunity – but also serious challenges.

Coresight Research has identified the 10 Retail Trends we predict will be important in the coming year:

  1. Cities will see more spectacular retail from a new generation of flagship stores.
  2. “Fast Retail” will be marked by shorter leases, more shared spaces and more short-term stores.
  3. Western retailers will borrow from “New Retail” with data-driven online-to-offline ventures.
  4. Technology will continue to strip friction from brick-and-mortar retail.
  5. Artificial Intelligence will become retailers’ go-to technology.
  6. Startup partnerships will fuel new product development, digital improvements and operational efficiencies.
  7. Supply chains will become more responsive, and switch from lines to loops.
  8. More consumers will seek out environmentally and socially engaged brands.
  9. Shoppers will increasingly expect “Smart Retail” interactions.
  10. Consumers will look for more inclusive offerings, impacting the apparel and luxury markets.

We note these dovetail nicely with Shoptalk’s 75 ways retail will change in the next decade. Shoptalk buckets the 75 Ways Retail Will Change in the Next Decade into 10 Themes:

  1. The New Digital Retail Organization.
  2. The Transformation of the Retail Industry.
  3. The New Era of Marketing ROI and Attribution.
  4. Next Generation Ecommerce and Omnichannel Retail.
  5. Technologies Creating New Retail Experiences.
  6. Leveraging AI and Machine Learning.
  7. Advances in Store Layout and Design.
  8. Improving Operational Efficiency.
  9. Innovation Strategies for Brands and Retailers.
  10. Building Brands for Today’s Consumers.

We looked at the 75 ways through the lens of Coresight’s trends for 2019. We find about 40% align despite the difference in the projected time period (one year vs a decade), specifically:

  • Technology will continue to strip friction from brick-and-mortar retail,
  • Artificial Intelligence will become retailers’ go-to technology,
  • Shoppers will increasingly expect “Smart Retail” interactions.

Additionally, Shoptalk pointed out that augmented/virtual Reality, computer vision and voice command will bring significant impact to retail for the next decade, which echoes our Ten Tech Startup Trends.

These are a few of the hot topics we’ll be following at Shoptalk – which we believe will also be defining themes for retail in the coming years:

  1. New Retail will take greater hold we see more companies place increasing importance on integrating online and offline offerings for a more seamless customer experience: New Retail Briefing #1, New Retail Briefing #2, New Retail Briefing #3, New Retail Briefing #4.
  2. Artificial intelligence will become more deeply integrated in a variety of areas from inventory management to customer recommendations.
  3. Supply chain management will become a key differentiator as companies seek to optimize inventory and maximize ability to offer products that closely map to fast-changing consumer preferences: 3D Disrupts the Fashion Supply Chain.
  4. The evolution of branding will incorporate data-driven marketing that supports a one-to-one brand relationship with consumers.
  5. New payment methods will gain traction as new technology enables features such as cashless (and unstaffed) shops.

The huge scope of topics to be addressed are proof there is no one path to retail/consumer nirvana: The path forward will be iterative and different for different every company. Solutions will evolve as they progress – and as new, disruptive technologies emerge.

We’ve been profiling the 15 companies that will compete for the two $25,000 prizes – some of which could well end up being the disruptors of tomorrow!

The chart below categorizes the fifteen startups into four solutions: Merchandising and Marketing Solution, Physical Retail Shopping Experience, Retail Ecommerce Experience and Fulfillment and Post-Purchase Operations.

Coresight Research is also participating in The New Retail Organization: Omnichannel, which will focus on innovative digital experiences. Retailers and brands are learning to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Emerging digital products, platforms and technologies regularly create new opportunities to serve existing customers and attract new ones, both in-store and online.

As part of this session, our CEO Deborah Weinswig will speak with Michael Martin, Vice President of Digital Products with Nike. Join us on Tuesday March 5 at 2:50 PM in Track Room 2 for this exciting event. See a more detailed agenda here.

We look forward to seeing everyone in Las Vegas for Shoptalk next week!

 

 

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