Executive Summary

  • Burlington Stores, Inc. reported fiscal 4Q18 revenues of $1.99 billion, lower than the consensus estimate of $2.05 billion, and up 2.8% year over year. The company reported adjusted 4Q18 EPS of $2.83, higher than the consensus estimate of $2.77 and 28.1% higher than the year ago period, which excludes the impact of the third week and the revaluation of 2017 deferred tax liabilities.
  • Fourth quarter comparable store sales increased 1.3%, lower than the consensus estimate of 3.2%.
  • 1Q19 earnings per share guidance is $1.21-1.31, lower than the consensus estimate of $1.36. The company projects total sales to increase 7-9%, compared to the consensus estimate of 8.9%, and comps are expected to be 0-2% compared to the consensus estimate of 2.6%. For FY19, the company projects earnings per share of $6.93-7.06, compared to the consensus estimate of $7.06.

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Executive Summary

  • Kroger reported a 1.9% increase in same-store sales in 4Q18, up from 1.6% in the prior quarter and in line with consensus. Total reported sales declined due to the divestiture of its convenience store business.
  • 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $0.48 came in shy of the $0.52 consensus.
  • Management guided for FY19 same-store sales growth of 2.0-2.5%.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date, US retailers have announced 4,810 store closures and 2,264 store openings.
  • Dollar Tree Inc. plans to open a total of 550 stores: 350 under the Dollar Tree banner and 200 under the Family Dollar banner.
  • Victoria’s Secret will close 50 US stores.
  • Foot Locker will close 165 stores and open 80 new stores globally.
  • Peloton will open 100 new stores.
  • JCPenney plans to shutter 27 stores.
  • Gap will shut 230 stores globally over a two-year period.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 305 store closures and 327 store openings.
  • Paperchase will shutter at least five stores.
  • Debenhams reaffirms plans to close 50 stores.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses our recently published second annual survey of Amazon apparel shoppers.
  • Amazon is reportedly planning to open dozens of grocery stores in several major US cities. The stores will be distinct from the company’s Whole Foods chain and the first is to open in Los Angeles as early as the end of this year.
  • Berlin-based e-commerce retailer Zalando is expanding cosmetics delivery to five new markets: Belgium, France, Italy, Denmark and Sweden. The company previously offered cosmetics only in Germany, Poland and Austria.
  • JD.com has expanded its partnership with UK-based online luxury fashion retailer Farfetch and agreed to merge its Toplife luxury shopping platform into Farfetch China.

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Executive Summary

  • Kohl’s reported fiscal 4Q18 revenues of $6.82 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $6.58 billion, and down 3.3% year over year. The company reported 4Q18 EPS of $2.24, higher than the consensus estimate of $2.18, and up 19.8% from the year ago period.
  • Comparable sales on a shifted basis increased 1% for the quarter and increased by 1.7% for the year.
  • For fiscal FY19, the company expects earnings per diluted share of $5.80-6.15, higher than the consensus estimate of $5.75. Management projects comparable sales of 0% to 2.0%, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.9%.

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Executive Summary

  • Urban Outfitters reported fiscal 4Q19 revenues of $1.13 billion, up 3.7% year over year. The company reported 4Q19 adjusted EPS of $0.83, up 20.3% from the year ago period.
  • Comparable sales were up 3.7% year over year. By brand, comparable retail sales increased 4% at Free People, 4% at Urban Outfitters and 2% at Anthropologie. Wholesale comparable sales increased by 3%.
  • For fiscal FY20, the company plans to open 28 new stores and close 13 stores, with a net of 15 new stores across its banners.

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Executive Summary

  • Ross Stores reported fiscal 4Q18 revenues of $4.1 billion, up 1% year over year and above the $4.0 billion consensus estimate. The company reported 4Q18 EPS of $1.20, up from $1.19 in 4Q18, beating the $1.12 consensus estimate.
  • The company’s comparable sales, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and sales and are expressed at constant exchange rates, were up 4% in 4Q18 compared to a 5% increase in 4Q17.
  • For fiscal 1Q19, Ross Stores forecasts comparable sales growth of flat to up 2% and projects EPS to be $1.05–1.11. The company expects revenue growth of 3–6% year over year in 1Q19. The company plans to add 22 new Ross Dress for Less (Ross) and 6 dd’s Discounts stores in 1Q19.

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Executive Summary

  • Dollar Tree reported 4Q18 revenues of $6.21 billion, down 2.4% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.93, up 2.5% and beating consensus by a penny.
  • Enterprise comps increased 2.4%, beating the 1.4% consensus; Dollar Tree comps grew 3.2%, beating the 2.9% consensus; and, Family Dollar comps increased 1.4%, beating the consensus estimate of flat growth.
  • The company announced a plan for improving results at Family Dollar, planning to renovate 1,000 stores, including potentially closing 390 and rebranding 200 others under the Dollar Tree banner in 2019.
  • For 2019, the company expects revenues of $23.45-23.87 billion (up 3.0-4.6%), below consensus, and EPS of $4.85-5.25 (down 4-11%), also below consensus.

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Executive Summary

  • BJ’s Wholesale Club reported total 4Q18 revenues of $3.42 billion, down 3.9% and beating the $3.36 billion consensus estimate. Net sales increased 2.9% adjusted for the extra week in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.44, up 22.7% and beating the $0.36 consensus estimate.
  • Comps excluding gasoline increased 2.9% during the quarter and 2.2% for the year.
  • BJ’s guided for 2019 revenues of $12.9-13.2 billion, below the $14.37 billion consensus estimate, a 1.5-2.5% increase in comps and EPS of $1.42-1.47, in line with consensus.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our Monthly Consumer Update rounds up key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China.  We focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

Highlights from our January Consumer Update:

  • US consumers benefitted from strengthening wage growth and lower inflation.
  • UK retail sales growth proved solid.
  • Chinese consumers enjoyed a double boost from a softening of inflation in food prices and deflation in automotive fuel prices.
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Executive Summary

Our Insights from China reports provide a weekly review of what’s happening in China – and what international brands and retailers need to know to succeed. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape – as they affect international companies selling to Chinese consumers or looking to enter the market.

This week, we look at how companies can leverage the power of the popular Chinese short video app Douyin, also known as TikTok, in reaching and engaging consumers.

Douyin: Leading Short Video App with a Large Base of Young Users

Douyin, known as TikTok overseas, is a short video app which allows users to share self-created short videos, generally limited to 15 seconds. The Beijing-based Internet company ByteDance launched the app in 2016 and its international version TikTok a year later. The app gained traction rapidly:

  • China-based data services company Miaozhen Systems estimates Douyin’s daily active users numbered over 100 million as of June 2018, topping all other Chinese short video apps.
  • TikTok surpassed Facebook, Instagram and YouTube to become the most downloaded non-game app in iOS App Store in the first quarter of 2018, according to app analytics firm Sensor Tower.

Official data from Douyin also reveal a large user base – mostly born after 1990:

  • Over 40% of users were aged 24–30 years as of June 2018.
  • The app had over 250 million daily active users and 500 million monthly active users as of December 2018.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference, March 3-6. These are just a few of the innovative technologies we saw at the show:

  • Last-mile delivery solutions connect drivers with retailers in more efficient ways, enabling better logistical operations and faster delivery.
  • Beyond search and discovery, computer vision technology can help retailers make better use of their physical store locations in ways that include customer tracking and inventory management.
  • New solutions to manage returns could ease a long-time pain point for online.

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Executive Summary

  • Omnichannel execution is a process worth perfecting, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.
  • The evolution of the physical store into an omnichannel strategy requires new KPIs and cultural change.
  • The age-old retail adage “know your customer” comes up at every session we attended. The digital transformation of retail is enabling technology, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to support this truism to better meet consumer needs, anticipate desires and develop emotional bonds.

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Executive Summary

  • Target reported flat 4Q18 total revenues of $22.98 billion, with sales below consensus, however, the year-ago quarter included one extra week ($1.2 billion) of sales. Adjusted EPS was $1.53, beating consensus by a penny. Comps grew 5.3%, beating consensus. Digital sales grew 31%.
  • For 2019, Target expects a low- to mid-single-digit increase in comps, a mid-single-digit increase in operating income and EPS of $5.75-6.05 (up 7-12%), above consensus of $5.61.
  • Target held an upbeat, well-attended investor meeting in New York City, in which management illustrated the successes of investments it began in 2016 in addition to its “durable financial model,” which calls for sales growth in the low- to mid-single digits, leading to earnings per share growth in the high-single digits.

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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. In this report, we review the global consumer packaged goods (CPG) market.

  • Emerging markets, especially China, are key growth avenues for CPG companies. Oxford Economics predicts that China’s urban economic power will surpass North America’s by 2030.
  • As shoppers become increasingly focused on digital channels and more mindful about health and wellness, CPG companies need to be agile in order to respond to their needs.
  • Multinational companies, private labels and emerging local players are all fighting for share of the CPG market.
  • Economic and political uncertainties abound as we begin 2019, but secular growth will continue to underpin demand for CPG products.
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