Executive Summary

  • Estée Lauder reported 3Q19 revenues of $3.7 billion, up 11.1% year over year and beating the $3.6 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted, non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $1.55, compared to $1.12 in the year ago quarter, up 38.8% and beating the consensus estimate of $1.30. 
  • Skincare, the company’s largest category at 46.6% of sales, rose 21% on a reported basis, driven by the Estée Lauder and La Mer brands. The Asia Pacific region showed strong growth, with two-thirds of the markets in the region growing double-digits. 
  • The company forecasts full fiscal year revenue growth of 7-8%, compared to prior guidance of 5-6%, and a consensus estimate of 6.4%. The company raised its full year EPS guidance to $5.15-5.19, versus the prior guidance of $4.92-5.00, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.06. 

Executive Summary

  • Under Armour reported 1Q19 sales of $1.20 billion, ahead of the consensus estimate of $1.18 billion, and EPS of $0.05, beating the consensus estimate of $0.00. 
  • Gross margin expanded to 45.2%, up 100 basis points year over year, ahead of the 45.1% consensus estimate, driven by regional mix, product cost improvements and prior period restructuring charges.
  • For FY19, the company updated its guidance: It maintained revenue growth at 3-4% but raised EPS guidance from $0.31-0.33 to $0.33-0.34.
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Executive Summary

  • Gildan 1Q19 sales declined 3.6% to $623.9 million and adjusted EPS decreased 52.9% to $0.16, ahead of the consensus estimates of $599.8 million and $0.15, respectively.
  • Gross margin was down 140 bps to 25.8% due to rising costs and unfavorable foreign exchange, partially offset by the positive impact from higher net selling prices and a more favorable product mix.
  • The company reiterated its sales guidance of mid-single-digit sales growth for 2019, and lowered adjusted EPS guidance to $1.90-2.00 from $2.00-2.10.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our Monthly Consumer Update rounds up key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China.  We focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

Highlights from our March Consumer Update:

  • US gasoline-price deflation eased to near-zero, contributing to an uptick in overall consumer price inflation.
  • UK retail sales climbed 4.4%, driven by a reported jump in sales at small retailers. 
  • China retail sales growth picked up pace to 8.7% year over year.  
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Executive Summary

In this report, we explore the initiatives that US drugstore retailers have undertaken so far in the beauty and wellness space – and examine the opportunities. 

  • Major retailers CVS Health and Walgreens Boots Alliance have refreshed and redesigned beauty spaces in their stores and partnered with other retailers to provide exciting experiences to customers.
  • CVS launched shops-in-shops called BeautyIRL at four of its pharmacies in October 2018.
  • CVS implemented several initiatives in the health and wellness space, including its Project Health program (launched in 2006) and HealthHUBs (introduced more recently).
  • In 2018, Walgreens announced a partnership with online beauty subscription retailer Birchbox, which includes revamped retail spaces at select Walgreens locations that look like mini Birchbox stores.
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Executive Summary

Pop-up stores are one of the ways luxury brands can engage with China’s increasingly important millennial consumers.

  • Luxury brands such as Chanel, Yves Saint Laurent (YSL), Hermès and Prada have opened pop-up stores to offer customers personalized experiences.
  • These brands showcased limited edition products, created nostalgic experiences and offered product trials.
  • Pop-up stores help these brands engage with millennial customers, who embrace newness and experience – and are also acquiring a taste for luxury at a younger age than in the West.
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Executive Summary

  • Tractor Supply reported 1Q19 EPS of $0.63, up 10.2% and beating the $0.55 consensus estimate recorded by StreetAccount. Revenues were $1.82 billion, up 8.3% and marginally ahead of the $1.81 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps were 5.0%, beating the 4.0% consensus estimate, comprising a 3.2% increase in average ticket and a 1.8% increase in transaction count.
  • The company maintained its guidance for 2019 revenues of $8.31–$8.46 billion, in line with the $8.43 billion consensus estimate, for comps of 2%–4% and EPS of $4.60–$4.75, in line with consensus of $4.71.

Executive Summary

  • Colgate-Palmolive reported net sales of $3.9 billion, down 2.9% year over year for the three months ended March 31, 2019. Organic sales were up 3.0% year over year.
  • In oral, personal and home care, the Africa/Eurasia region saw strong organic sales growth, increasing 7.0% year over year. However, the Asia Pacific region underperformed, with a 2.5% decrease in organic sales year over year.
  • The Hill’s Pet Nutrition segment also saw strong organic sales growth, increasing 6.0% year over year.

Executive Summary

  • 1Q19 sales rose 5.6% driven by strong growth in wholesale accessories. Same-store sales rose 6.3% driven by the strong performance in e-commerce.
  • The adjusted operating margin expanded 80 basis points (bps) to 11.0% of sales.
  • Adjusted EPS increased 16.7% to $0.42. The company raised its 2019 sales and earnings guidance, raising EPS guidance to $1.76-1.84 from $1.70-1.78.

Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis, and this report represents the final Tax Tracker for this year’s tax season.

  • As of April 19, the IRS had received 137.2 million tax returns, up 0.2% year over year.
  • A total of 95.7 million refunds had been issued as of that date (up 0.3% year over year), totaling $260.9 billion (down 1.7% year over year) and averaging $2,725 (down $55 or 2.0% year over year), implying a mismatch between withholding and the updated tax rates.
  • Although the filing deadline has now passed, returns will still trickle in. As of this time last year, 85% of the year’s returns had been filed.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What Categories Do US Shoppers Most Use BOPIS Services For?

New Coresight Research data on US consumers’ use of buy online pick up in store (BOPIS) services show apparel is the most-collected category: Some 35.4% of US BOPIS shoppers picked up clothing, footwear or accessories from a store in the past year. Electronics beat groceries to be the second-most-collected category, and this reflects the low online penetration rate in grocery.

Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team attended the CoCoon Pitch Night Finals Spring 2019 held on
April 25 in Hong Kong.

  • The competition featured six early-stage companies: Lambda Sense, FindRecruiter, Boxs, BestShare, Borecast and Our Big Day.
  • The winner chosen by both a three-judge panel and through audience voting was Our Big Day, an online system that helps brides and grooms research wedding traditions, connect with wedding experts and share photos and videos on their own website.

Executive Summary

  • According to an annual Mother’s Day spending survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, about 84% of US consumers plan to celebrate Mother’s Day this year, broadly in line with last year’s 86%.
  • The NRF projects that total spending on Mother’s Day in the US this year will reach $25.0 billion, a record high. The average Mother’s Day spend per person will be $196.5 this year, up from $179.8 last year.
  • The survey indicated that jewelry will be the biggest Mother’s Day gift category by total sales this year; the NRF predicts that shoppers will spend $5.2 billion on jewelry. The second-biggest spending category will be special outings such as brunch or dinner, on which shoppers will spend an estimated $4.6 billion this year.
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Executive Summary

This presentation was given at the Hong Kong Gifts & Premium Fair, held by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. It contrasts retailers and shopping mall in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the US, and discusses the concept of New Retail, in addition to retail trends and key technologies.

Topics include:

  • New Retail benefits from shopping festivals and new store formats
  • Retail is being reshaped by fresh thinking and changing consumer demands
  • AI is the go-to technology in 2019 that will strip friction from brick-and-mortar retail
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