Executive Summary

  • In 4Q18, Adidas net sales increased 3.5% to €5.2 billion, or 5% on a currency-neutral basis, driven by double-digit gains in Asia Pacific and Greater China.
  • The operating margin contracted 10 bps, reflecting modest gross margin expansion offset by higher marketing and overhead expenditures.
  • For 2019, the company expects net sales to grow 5-8% on a currency neutral basis, and operating margins to expand 50-70 bps. Net income is projected to grow 10-14% to €1.88-1.95 billion.

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Executive Summary

The Japanese government has launched an initiative to automate convenience stores nationwide by 2025, in co-operation with five convenience store chains.

  • The government launched the project to tackle the country’s labor shortage and enhance convenience stores’ operational efficiency.
  • Under the plan, the five convenience store chains will automate 50,000 stores by 2025 using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology.
  • There has been wide adoption of RFID technology globally, as it helps better manage inventory control and customer service delivery.
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Executive Summary

On March 5, 2019, Estée Lauder (EL) hosted its Investor Day in New York City.

  • Estée Lauder is gaining share in prestige beauty, growing from 13% in calendar 2009 to 14.4% in calendar 2017.
  • Global per capita spending on prestige beauty is increasing. The company projects the global middle class will grow by 600 million people by 2028, expanding overall spending power by 50%, which will increase opportunities for prestige beauty spending.
  • Innovations and successful product launches accounted for nearly 30% the company’s net sales in the first half of fiscal year 2019.
  • E-commerce represents approximately 30% of Estée Lauder’s business in its top markets. The company expects double-digit ecommerce growth over the next three years.
  • Estée Lauder confirmed its three-year target of 6-8% net sales growth and double-digit EPS growth. The company is continuing its focus on travel retail as a growth opportunity.

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Executive Summary

  • Dick’s Sporting Goods 4Q18 revenues were $2.49 billion, down 6.5% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $2.48 ­­billion. The company reported 4Q18 EPS of $1.07, down 3.6% from the year ago period, and above the consensus estimate of $1.06.
  • The company saw consolidated comparable sales growth of (2.2)% for the quarter on a shifted basis compared to (6.5)% from the year ago period, and the consensus estimate of (3.3)%. This was in line with the company’s expectations.
  • For fiscal year 2019, the company expects earnings per share to be in the range of $3.15-3.35, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.34. Management projects consolidated same store sales to be flat to 2%, compared to the consensus estimate of 0.5%.

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Executive Summary

  • US Consumers plan to spend an average of $40 this St Patrick’s Day – far less than other holidays such as Valentine’s Day’s $162 average.
  • Average spend has fluctuated over the years, although the proportion of people who say they’ll celebrate has risen.
  • From about 55% in 2009, more than 70% of 18-34 year olds plan to celebrate this year.
  • Older generations are more likely to host a dinner or attend a parade: Younger people are more likely to hit the bars or have a party.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our January US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding fuel and automobiles increased 3.7% year over year in January, growing substantially from the revised 0.1% year-over-year decline reported for December.
  • In January, eight out of 13 major retail sectors saw sequential improvements to year-over-year growth.
  • The home-improvement sector proved particularly robust, with year-over-year growth hitting 8.7% in January, from 1.6% in December. In January, nonstore retailers saw sales rise 7.3% year over year, while sales at grocery stores grew 3.5%.
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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 1, the IRS had received 59.2 million tax returns, down 3.2% year over year.
  • A total of 46.4 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 4.2% year over year), totaling $142.4 billion (down 3.5% year over year) and averaging $3,068 (up $22 or 0.7% year over year).
  • The largest group of taxpayers plans to use refunds to repay debt, followed by savings, travel and other spending categories, according to a survey by website Decluttr.
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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • Alibaba continues to facilitate cross-border payment: AlipayHK users (those with Hong Kong-based accounts) can now use AlipayHK to pay outside of Hong Kong, and some supermarkets in Canada now accept Alipay.
  • Alibaba formed a partnership with Office Depot to target small and medium businesses in the US, and to support cross-border logistics and fulfillment services.
  • JD.com is working with Rakuten to develop unstaffed delivery solutions for the Japanese market.
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Executive Summary

  • Costco reported fiscal 2Q19 revenues of $35.40 billion, up 7.3% year over year and slightly below the $35.65 billion consensus estimate. EPS was $2.01, up 26.6% year over year and handily beating the $1.69 consensus estimate.
  • Comps (excluding gasoline and other items) increased 6.7%, and e-commerce comps increased 25.5%.
  • February comps increased 4.6% (ex items), and e-commerce comps grew 21.6% (ex items).

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Executive Summary

  • Big Lots reported 4Q18 revenues of $1.60 billion, down 2.6% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $2.68, up 4.2% and handily beating the $2.30 consensus estimate.
  • Comps increased 3.1%, compared with a decrease of 0.1% in the year-ago quarter.
  • The company guided for a low single digit increase in comps in 2019 and adjusted EPS of $3.55-3.75 (down 7-12%), in line with the $3.64 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

We analyze Amazon’s beauty and personal care offering, based on aggregated data on over 200,000 products listed on Amazon.com’s US beauty website, collated with competitive intelligence provider DataWeave. We also include summary data from our recent survey of US beauty and personal care shoppers.

  • Our research identified 212,818 beauty and personal care products across 2,499 brands spanning eight major beauty categories on Amazon.com.
  • Makeup is the largest category, accounting for 33% of beauty products, followed by skincare at 26%, haircare at 14%, personal care at 13%, fragrance at 9% and oral care at 2%. Men’s grooming and luxury beauty each account for 1% of listings.
  • Maybelline New York is the most-listed brand on Amazon.com with 4,370 product listings.
  • While Amazon offers a large selection in beauty, 4% of beauty brands (103) account for fully 52.1% of all beauty product listings. Some 12.6% of Amazon beauty brands (316) list only one product each. This suggests that there are opportunities for some beauty brands to scale up.
  • Our consumer survey found Amazon is America’s second-most-shopped retailer for beauty, grooming, and personal care products, behind Walmart: Some 42.5% of shoppers said they bought on Amazon in the past 12 months.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. In US drugstore retailing:

  • Collaborations and alliances formed last year will manifest synergies in the form of innovation in offerings.
  • The US drugstore retail market was worth $233 billion in 2017 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.1% to $280 billion in 2023.
  • The US drugstore sector has heavily consolidated in recent years, with Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid owning 77% of the market.
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Executive Summary

Blockchain technology has the potential to disrupt retail as it can decentralize processes through which retailers interact with partners, industry players and consumers, making operations more efficient and secure. We looked into the implications for this technology and these are the key takeaways:

  • The decentralized and secure nature of the blockchain has the potential to disrupt operations in retail, including supply chain and logistics, customer data management, loyalty programs, payments and marketplaces.
  • Blockchain in the supply chain enhances traceability, helping businesses minimize the impact of problems such as food safety issues and fight counterfeits. The blockchain can decentralize Internet of Things (IoT) architectures, making them more secure and scalable.
  • The blockchain can create decentralized, trusted and secured systems to handle customer data, enabling consumers to retain more control of how their data is used by companies. Blockchain-enabled joint loyalty programs could give more reward options to shoppers and more consumer data to collaborating companies.
  • Cryptocurrency payments could be embedded into checkout-less platforms in brick-and-mortar stores. Shoppers could walk out of a store while smart contracts automatically execute payments for the items bought.
  • The key strength blockchain offers is encouraging collaboration among companies in retail operations.
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Executive Summary

  • American Eagle Outfitters reported fiscal 4Q18 revenues of $1.24 billion, lower than the consensus estimate of $1.26 billion, and up 1.3% year over year. The company reported 4Q18 EPS of $0.43, higher than the consensus estimate of $0.42 and exceeding the company’s guidance of $0.40-0.42, but lower than the year ago period.
  • American Eagle’s fourth quarter comp sales rose 3%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of comp increases. For the 2018 fiscal year, comparable sales grew 8%.
  • In 1Q19, the company projects earnings per share of $0.19 to $0.21, lower than the consensus estimate of $0.24. AEO expects comparable sales to be in the positive low single digits.

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Executive Summary

  • Amazon plans to close 87 of its pop-up stores by the end of April, a company spokesperson confirmed to the Wall Street Journal.
  • The pop-ups sell other brands of Amazon consumer electronics products, and their existence underscores Amazon’s willingness to experiment with various retail formats and make changes based on data collected.
  • At the same time, the company is expanding its bookstores and four-star stores, as well as its fleet of unstaffed Amazon Go stores. Amazon is also reportedly planning to open non-Whole Foods Market branded traditional grocery stores and considering purchasing several regional grocery chains, also according to the Journal.

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