Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • Tencent is testing medical services on its WeChat mini program.
  • Alipay aims to boost user numbers for its health plan Xiang Hu Bao to 300 million in the next two years.
  • Korean eyewear brand Gentle Monster lands on Tmall and Tmall Luxury Pavilion.
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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of April 12, the IRS had received 119.4 million tax returns, up 0.7% year over year.
  • A total of 84.4 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 1.9% year over year), totaling $236.0 billion (down 3.1% year over year) and averaging $2,795 (down $36 or 1.3% year over year), implying a mismatch between withholding and the updated tax rates.
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to a recent Tax Returns Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Where Do US Consumers Prefer to Shop for Furniture?

IKEA is the most-preferred retailer among US consumers when it comes to buying furniture, with almost one in ten shoppers saying it is their first choice.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our March US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding gasoline and automobiles increased 0.7% year over year in March, a substantial slowdown from the revised 2.5% year-over-year increase in February.
  • Seasonally adjusted, only three sectors saw a sales decline year over year in March. The home-improvement sector grew 3.3% year over year in March, up from 1.1% growth in February.
  • In March, non-store retailers saw sales rise 11.6% year over year, higher than the 10.9% reported in February.
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Executive Summary

  • Kering reported a 21.9% rise in 1Q19 revenue to €8 billion, up 17.5% on a comparable basis at constant currency.
  • Asia Pacific achieved the best regional revenue growth at 30% on a constant currrency basis.
  • By banner and on a constant currency basis, Gucci’s revenue rose 20%, driven by outstanding performance in Asia Pacific, existing and new products, and e-commerce; Saint Laurent’s revenue was up 17.5%, with balanced growth across all regions; Bottega Veneta’s revenue declined 8.9% but its other houses showed strong momentum, with revenues up 21.7%.

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Executive Summary

Amazon plans to close its China domestic marketplace on July 18, according to company representatives.

  • Amazon entered China via its $75 million acquisition of Joyo in 2004, which was rebranded as Amazon China in 2011.
  • The company plans to continue its cross-border e-commerce operations, sell Kindle e-readers and operate its Amazon Web Services (AWS) business.
  • Amazon’s decision to exit China reflects the acceptance of the intractability of its minimal market share of e-commerce in China, which is dominated by Tmall and JD.com.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly UK Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Highlights from our March UK Retail Sales Report:

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a strengthening of retail growth to 4.4% year over year in March, supported by a 4.0% increase in volumes.
  • Growth was supported by a reported 8.9% increase in sales at small retailers; larger retailers, which include well-know chains and major online retailers, grew sales 3.2%.
  • A late Easter (Easter Sunday is April 21 versus April 1 last year) means some spending at grocery stores and DIY retailers shifted from March into April.
  • Department stores/mixed-goods retailers saw a third consecutive month of falling sales, dovetailing with the sales declines reported by John Lewis in March.
  • Online sales at food retailers registered their first year-over-year decline since 2011.
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Executive Summary

International brands and retailers looking to expand their presence in China face a complex market. Many retailers partner with established local players to tap into their knowledge, expertise and experience with the Chinese consumer. This guide provides an overview of the support online retailing giant Alibaba offers international brands and retailers looking to expand in China.

  • Alibaba’s Tmall accounted for 60% of gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the online retail business-to-consumer (B2C) market in China in the third quarter of 2018, according to China Internet Watch and Analysis.
  • Alibaba is the world’s largest online and mobile commerce company, with some 700 million monthly active users as of December 2018, according to company figures.
  • Depending on their level of presence in the market, international brands and retailers can use Tmall, Tmall Global, Tmall Overseas Fulfillment (TOF) or Tmall Direct Imports (TDI).
  • US baby skincare brand Evereden achieved a visit-to-purchase conversion rate of 15-20% during its first month on Tmall Global, according to Alibaba.
  • Some 30% of total retail sales in China were online in 2018, according to eMarketer. China’s Internet retail sales are expected to grow at a 15% CAGR in the five years through 2023, to reach $1.2 trillion, according to Euromonitor International.

Click here to view more reports about China Market Entry.

 

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Executive Summary

Aldi and Lidl have brought major disruption to the UK grocery market — and they could be on course to add another £9 billion of combined sales over the next five years. In this report, we review five measures major UK grocery retailers have taken to fight Aldi and Lidl, and how successful each has been.

  • Nondiscount grocery retailers have made radical cost-cuts, shedding thousands of staff at head offices and in stores. Generally, the visible impact to shoppers seems to have been minimal. However, an apparent slippage in store standards at Sainsbury’s as a result of job cuts risks its differentiated positioning.
  • Range reductions have let Tesco channel higher volumes through each line. Its range resets have coincided with a recovery in its top line and a return to total volume growth, confirming that shoppers have not been deterred by slimmed-down ranges.
  • Tesco’s new, discounter-type private labels look to be a success, although they may encourage some trading down at the retailer. Tesco’s launch of the Jack’s discount chain is a bold move, but we think the chain’s proposition could limit its appeal to shoppers.
  • Diversification away from core grocery retailing has been successful, creating new revenue streams and giving retailers access to higher-margin or faster-growing markets. The wholesale grocery model, such as that adopted by Morrisons, looks particularly successful.
  • There are doubts over whether Sainsbury’s and Asda can complete a merger successfully. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has indicated it would require a substantial number of store disposals or even one of the Sainsbury’s or Asda brands, which could undermine the economics of the merger.

 

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. So far this year, US retailers have announced 5,994 store closures and 2,647 store openings. This compares to 5,864 closures and 3,239 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Grocery retailer Aldi has announced that it plans to open 15 new stores in 2019 in southern California.
  • Golf- and tennis-inspired apparel and accessories retailer PGA Tour Superstore will open six new stores in 2019.
  • Year to date, UK retail announced store openings and closures are running almost neck and neck, with announced store closures at 322 and store openings at 352.
  • Apparel retailer Primark has opened world’s largest fashion store in Birmingham.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the split in the millennial population: Not one demographic, now they are two. 
  • In the US, J.Crew Group said it is “actively exploring strategic alternatives” for itself, including a possible initial public offering for its Madewell brand of women’s clothing and accessories.
  • In China, Alibaba will launch “video fingerprint” technology to stop vendors from using other vendors’ videos (a popular promotion tool) without permission.
  • Brazil’s Itaú Unibanco bank has announced plans to roll out facial biometrics to stop auto loan fraud. Buyers will have to send a selfie from their phones before an auto loan is approved.

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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. This report covers European retailing, with a focus on the UK, Germany and France.

  • Structural trends challenging middleground legacy retailers include an ongoing attrition of market share to online and discount channels. In April, UK department-store chain Debenhams entered administration, handing control to its lenders; UK rivals House of Fraser and Marks & Spencer (M&S) are closing stores.
  • In Germany and France, consumer spending on apparel has been weak, and even higher-growth retailers have seen challenges. Primark pointed to a “difficult Germany market” in January 2019. ASOS noted a “challenging performance” in Germany and France in April. However, Zalando reported growth of over 20% in the Germany region for the final quarter of 2018.
  • At the time of writing, we are even less clear on the outcome of the Brexit process than we were when we published our previous Sector Overview on European retail in January.
  • The lack of clarity over the UK’s exit from the EU is impacting UK consumer spending only moderately, according to various sources, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS). But the uncertainty has prompted retailers to invest in contingency plans and stockpiling in case of a no-deal Brexit.
  • German consumers have been retrenching discretionary spending in the face of macro uncertainties such as Brexit. However, inflation has eased and unemployment has fallen to ultralow levels in Germany.
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Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape — as they affect the business operations and future outlook.

This week, we review the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2019.

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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of April 5, the IRS had received 103.5 million tax returns, down 0.3% year over year.
  • A total of 77.9 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 1.5% year over year), totaling $220.8 billion (down 2.6% year over year) and averaging $2,833 (down $31 or 1.1% year over year).
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to a recent Tax Returns Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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Executive Summary

  • Some 79% of US consumers plan to celebrate Easter this year and to spend a total of $18.1 billion on shopping related to the occasion, slightly short of last year’s total of $18.2 billion, according to an annual spending survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
  • Shoppers are expected to spend an average of $151 per person on the holiday this year, up from $150 per person last year.
  • The survey found that 89% of respondents plan to purchase candy, while 85% expect to buy Easter-themed food, 59% gifts, 46% clothing, 41% decorations and 38% flowers.
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