Executive Summary

Continuing our Holiday 2019 series, this report offers our full look at expected US retail demand this November and December.

  • We expect to see a 4.0% year-over-year increase in US retail sales during the holiday months of November and December.
  • This is in the context of recent solid retail growth: Total retail sales in the latest three months expanded 4.1% year over year.
  • We expect to see slightly more than 23% of all nonfood retail sales go online this holiday season, up 200 basis points year over year.
  • Lower gas prices are a plus for holiday spending, providing as much as an incremental 50 basis points to sales growth.
  • This year has six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than 2018 – the shortest possible holiday calendar.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

In our biweekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape — as they affect business operations and the future outlook.

In this report, we look at the Chinese beauty brand Perfect Diary.

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Executive Summary

On September 25, 2019, VF Corporation hosted its investor day at its new corporate headquarters in Boulder, Colorado.

  • VF articulated a purpose-led, performance-driven strategy for growth, and introduced revenue and earnings per share (EPS) 2024 targets.
  • The company outlined a five-year plan to grow revenues to $15.4-15.6 billion by FY24, at a 7%–8% CAGR.
  • VF’s four power brands, direct-to-consumer (DTC) and international will set the growth pace.
  • EPS is projected to grow at a 12-14% CAGR through FY24, benefitting from modest margin expansion and share repurchases in addition to the projected revenue gains.

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Executive Summary

On September 29, 2019, Forever 21 announced it had begun voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings in the US bankruptcy court.

  • Forever 21 intends to use Chapter 11 protection to undertake a global restructuring to focus on a core of profitable parts of its operations.
  • As part of its restructuring strategy, the company plans to exit most international locations in Asia and Europe but will continue operations in the US, Mexico and Latin America.
  • To facilitate its restructuring, Forever 21 has obtained $350 million in financing.

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Executive Summary

In this report, we look at the growth of alternative payment methods, specifically the “buy now, pay later” trend – and what changing consumer preferences tell us about the future of the digital payments space.

Buy now, pay later platforms offer shoppers the option of splitting a purchase into several interest-free installments over a pre-determined period.

  • The buy now, pay later trend has taken off around the globe, and is well established in some parts of the world. In Australia, it accounts for about 8-10% of all online sales. In the US, these solutions represent a more than $1.8 trillion opportunity, according to Accenture.
  • Companies such as Sezzle and Afterpay have seen robust growth: Afterpay, which launched in Australia in 2014, reported sales of $5.2 billion through its platform in FY19 with 6,500 US merchants currently using the platform.
  • Sezzle, which is North America focused and growing even faster than Afterpay, has over 5,800 merchants on its platform since launching in Q3 2017.
  • Although merchants generally pay a higher fee to an alternative payment platform than is typical for credit cards, the growth in basket size, increase in conversions and ability to move more inventory at full price often makes up for this added expense.
  • These services are growing in popularity, especially among millennials and Gen Zers, who tend to not own credit cards. In the US, just one out of three millennials owns a major credit card, according to a Bankrate survey.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What Is the Outlook for the US Hemp-Derived CBD Products Market? 

Total sales of hemp-derived cannabidiol (CBD) products are expected to reach $646 million by 2022 from $49 million in 2014—growing at a CAGR of 38% over this period, according to Hemp Business Journal, a division of New Frontier Data.

Executive Summary

Best Buy held its biannual investor update meeting on September 25, 2019 at the New York Stock Exchange.

  • Best Buy has already accomplished its FY21 financial targets and has set aggressive but achievable targets for FY25.
  • The company is focused on increasing “brand love” (i.e., the consumer’s connection or affinity for a brand) by focusing on retail fundamentals, including pricing and promotions.
  • Best Buy is intensely focused on the customer and is targeting adjacent opportunities where it has lower market share.
  • The health tech category is a $50 billion addressable market, which is undergoing a structural transformation that is unlocking new possibilities.
  • The company has made substantial improvements to its supply chain, in automation, evolving strategies in partnership and fulfillment, expanding its supply chain and customer experience.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Each month, we analyze key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China. In these updates, we focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

In August:

  • US retail sales grew 4.7% year over year, softening from July’s 5.6% growth.
  • UK retail sales growth moderated. Consumers benefited from strengthening wage growth and lower inflation.
  • China retail sales growth slowed marginally, to 7.5% year over year.   
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Executive Summary

As part of our Retailers’ Timelines series, we examine key events in Tesco’s recent history.

  • To bolster its Asian business, Tesco plans to open 750 convenience stores in Thailand during the period 2019-21.
  • In line with its sustainability drive, by December 2019, Tesco plans to end the use of hard-to-recycle materials used for private-label packaging.
  • From 2017 to 2019, we saw Tesco divesting non-core assets and closing down unprofitable stores in an effort to reduce costs and refocus on its domestic business.
  • In FY19, Tesco eliminated a number of household brands and relaunched 10,000 private-label products in its stores in the UK in order to improve efficiency and compete with low-cost rivals. The company also slashed a number of suppliers to simplify its supply chain structure.
  • As part of its digital transformation plans, Tesco teamed up with Starship Technologies in 2017 to develop a grocery delivery service using six-wheeled robots, an app for which was launched in 2019 to customers in Milton Keynes.
  • To strengthen its omnichannel capabilities, Tesco launched a same-day grocery click-and-collect service in 2016 that allows customers to collect grocery orders in-store within three hours.

Click here to read our full collection of Retailers’ Timelines.

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Executive Summary

The Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Report highlights fashion trends that are just emerging, growing quickly or hitting maturity.

The Monthly Fashion Trend Report offers critical insights on evolving trends for designers, planners, retailers, buyers and merchandisers. The trend report is a valuable decision-making tool based on deep quantitative and qualitative analysis using data from Trendalytics. For more data, please see our Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Data Report: October 2019. 

  • Xcel Brands uses quantitative and qualitative data to compile the monthly trend report and create lookbooks sourced from Trendalytics data.
  • Milkmaid dresses, a top growing trend which incorporates a pretty, voluminous sleeve with an open neckline and fitted waist, had the highest rate of online search growth, with an average of 5,458 searches per week, up 1,024% compared to last year, according to Trendalytics data.
  • Ruched mini dresses, body hugging dresses most often made from stretchy knit fabrics, are attracting at all price points – from fast fashion to luxury. Over 64% of ruched mini dresses are sold at full price.
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Executive Summary

The Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Report highlights fashion trends that are just emerging, growing quickly or hitting maturity.

The Monthly Fashion Trend Report offers critical insights on evolving trends for designers, planners, retailers, buyers and merchandisers. The trend report is a valuable decision-making tool based on deep quantitative and qualitative analysis using data from Trendalytics.

  • Xcel Brands uses quantitative and qualitative data to compile the monthly trend report and create lookbooks sourced from Trendalytics data.
  • Milkmaid dresses, a top growing trend which incorporates a pretty, voluminous sleeve with an open neckline and fitted waist, had the highest rate of online search growth, with an average of 5,458 searches per week, up 1,024% compared to last year, according to Trendalytics data. 
  • Ruched mini dresses, body hugging dresses most often made from stretchy knit fabrics, are attracting at all price points – from fast fashion to luxury. Over 64% of ruched mini dresses are sold at full price.
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Executive Summary

With this series, 30 Global Retail Cities, we profile the world’s major shopping cities—from fashion capitals such as Milan to shopping hubs such as Honolulu and Bermuda. We curated the top retail stores in each city, along with must-see shopping districts, major retail events and innovative store formats.

Click here to view the full 30 Global Retail Cities series.

Highlights:

  • Florence is the birthplace of the Renaissance and of Italian fashion. The city boasts designers such as Emilio Pucci, Gucci and Roberto Cavalli.
  • Along the Via dei Calzaiuoli, there is a variety of stores, from high-end to everyday modern brands—demonstrating this range are the ultra-luxury Gucci store, mid-market department store Coin, artifact store Poggi and the Disney store.
  • MIO Concept Store on the Via della Spada has an extensive collection of innovative designs and eco-led products plus street art, homewares and jewelry. The brand’s slogan is “design inspired by the elegance of awareness.”
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Executive Summary

September 27, 2019

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the rise of buy online, return in store (BORIS), and the headaches and opportunities it presents for retailers.

In the news this week:

  • Walgreens is testing drones for rapidly delivery of food and beverages, over-the-counter medications and other items.
  • Primark announced it may begin sourcing from Guatemala, Costa Rica and Mexico. Currently, Primark US sources from Asia and Turkey.
  • Alibaba’s Tmall has partnered with Japanese textile manufacturer Mitsubishi Chemical to launch a thin, heat-generating fabric called Celwarm.

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Executive Summary

On September 24, 2019, Coresight Research’s London team attended Retail Innovation Now at the Design Museum, London. The event—which was attended by 17 emerging technology companies from Israel, among others—focused on the trends that are reshaping retail for the future:

  • Retail is going through a process of “servicification,” in which customer experience is becoming more important than the product offered. Physical stores are becoming similar to digital platforms thanks to the adoption of in-store technology.
  • Digitally native companies are replacing traditional assets in many industries, including retail. Legacy retailers need to collaborate with emerging tech companies in order to stay competitive.
  • The role of the physical store is changing into a place for personalization and engagement; the integration of physical and digital is on the rise; and the importance of sustainability and inclusiveness is growing across the industry.

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Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 8,567 store closures and 3,506 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 443 store closures and 634 store openings.
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