Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team was in Las Vegas attending and participating in the Groceryshop 2019 conference, September 15-18. In this report, we share our insights from the conference.

  • Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig kicked off the event by emceeing the Groceryshop Emerging Technology Spotlight on September 15.
  • Weinswig also introduced Coresight Research’s SCORE framework for artificial intelligence (AI) in grocery retail.
  • Companies need to connect demographics, life stage, lifestyle, social media and other lifestyle indicators to truly understand customers and predict behavior using AI.
  • Many at Groceryshop expressed the view that it is better to risk taking action based on imperfect data, instead of waiting for the perfect data set that may never come.

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Executive Summary

With this series, 30 Global Retail Cities, we profile the world’s major shopping cities—from fashion capitals such as Milan to shopping hubs such as Honolulu and Bermuda. We curated the top retail stores in each city, along with must-see shopping districts, major retail events and innovative store formats.

Click here to view the full 30 Global Retail Cities series.

Highlights:

  • São Paulo Fashion Week is a semi-annual event that acts as a platform to promote Brazil’s creative fashion culture.
  • House of Bubbles combines a launderette with a clothing rental subscription service, encouraging customers to think about sustainability in fashion.
  • Vila Madelena is an up-and-coming Bohemian area in São Paulo, featuring a variety of bars, restaurants, shops, art galleries, street art and antique fairs.
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Executive Summary

October 4, 2019

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the waning importance of holiday shopping for US retailers, with holiday sales accounting for a steadily decreasing proportion of annual sales.

In the news this week:

  • Simon Property Group is teaming up with online shopping site Rue La La’s parent company to launch a new website for people looking for deals.
  • Uniqlo has partnered with textile company Toray Industries to launch a line of apparel made from used Uniqlo down jackets and recycled plastic bottles.
  • Carrefour has extended the use of blockchain technology to Camembert de Normandie cheese. Shoppers can trace producers’ locations and see the product’s path from farm to shelf with a QR code scan.

 

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Executive Summary

The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2019 US holiday forecast.

  • The NRF expects spending in November and December to increase by 3.8%-4.2% year over year, taking total sales to between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion.
  • The NRF’s forecast aligns with Coresight Research’s estimate of 4% growth for November and December.
  • The NRF’s 2019 forecast is above the five-year historical holiday average of 3.7.
  • The solid forecast reflects that the US economy is continuing to grow and that consumer spending is the primary engine behind the growth, according to Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO.
  • The impacts of tariffs on holiday spending are unknown, as some merchandise was subject to tariffs that took effect September 1, and other products will have tariffs applied on December 15.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 8,579 store closures and 3,571 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 443 store closures and 635 store openings.
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Executive Summary

On September 26, 2019, Brookfield Property Partners hosted its investor day at Brookfield Place in New York City.

  • The company will continue to leverage its real estate platform to buy, build and operate assets.
  • Brookfield is committed to minimizing the environmental impact of is operations, fostering energy efficiency, conserving natural resources and reducing waste.
  • Management commented that the company’s assets will become more valuable in a low-interest-rate environment.

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Executive Summary

  • Ascena Retail Group reported fiscal 4Q19 revenues of $1.27 billion, above the consensus estimate of $1.20 billion, but down year over year. The company reported adjusted 4Q19 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 excluding items, lower than the year ago period.
  • Ascena’s third quarter comparable sales were flat, compared to a 4% increase in the year-ago period.
  • Due to the closure of the company’s Dressbarn business, the company provided guidance for only the continuing operations of its premium fashion brands, plus fashion brands, and kids segments for 1Q20: The company projects net sales of $1.10-1.12 billion. Management expects comparable sales of negative low single digits.

 

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Executive Summary

  • H&M reported 3Q19 net sales of SEK 62.57 billion, up 12.1% year over year and slightly higher than the consensus estimate of SEK 62.44 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported EPS of SEK 2.33, up 24.6% year over year, and ahead of the consensus estimate of SEK 2.28 recorded by the StreetAccount.
  • In FY19, the company plans to open a total of 290 new stores, including franchises, and the majority of these will open in 4Q19.

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Executive Summary

On October 2–3, 2019, Coresight Research’s London team attended Tech. 2019 at Printworks, London. The event focused on the technology and trends that are shaping the future of retail:

  • Technology empowers customer-centric retail models, enabling companies to deliver consistent levels of customer service across multiple touchpoints.
  • Partnerships between companies to strengthen data analytics or last-mile delivery are seen as a winning model in retail compared to the alternative of vertical integration, according to retailers such as JD.com.
  • While smartphones are currently central in the consumer experience, the rise of wearables could threaten the role of cell phones in retail in the near future, by delivering greater personalization and a better user experience.
  • The adoption of 5G technology is needed to unleash the full potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in retail. The next-generation mobile connectivity can deliver the low latency needed for more advanced AI applications.
  • AI enables smart consumption through greater personalization that minimizes the risk of failing to offer shoppers what they want, which in turn reduces unsold inventory that needs to be disposed of and the likelihood of returns, making the industry more sustainable.

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Executive Summary

  • In 1H20, Tesco reported a strong, 25% increase in adjusted operating profit, yielding an adjusted operating margin of 4.4%.
  • In 2Q20, the closely watched measure of UK comp growth slid to (1.0)%, versus 0.4% in 1Q20 and below the (0.6)% consensus.
  • CEO Dave Lewis is to leave in summer 2020. He will be succeeded by Ken Murphy, formerly of Walgreens Boots Alliance.

 

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Executive Summary

On September 25, 2019, Coresight Research attended LuxeCX/AMCX: The Role of Customer Experience in Business, a conference on the luxury business, hosted in New York City. Luxury brands and retailers, service providers and researchers discussed the role of customer service as a key determinant for consumers when making shopping and buying decisions. Key insights include:

  • As new upstart brands go after luxury stalwarts, the latter should leverage their heritage, product and service to differentiate as true luxury.
  • Customer feedback, often captured on social media, is essential to understand what is working with your customer.
  • High-quality data makes a difference: Luxury brands need tools to interpret the data.
  • Post-purchase consumer perceptions are more important than pre-purchase perception.

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Executive Summary

In our biweekly Supply Chain Briefing series, we discuss how technology is transforming the various stages of the retail supply chain, including product design, demand forecasting, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, last-mile delivery and sales. We also discuss other developments that relate to the retail supply chain.

This report discusses 5G, a technology that can benefit retailers throughout different stages in the supply chain.

  • 5G technology is the fifth generation of mobile connectivity, which succeeds 4G. It has low latency, high reliability and requires less energy than previous generations of mobile connectivity.
  • 5G technology benefits different stages of the supply chain, including production, logistics, warehousing, delivery and also enhances the customer experience.
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Executive Summary

This report reviews the most recent quarterly earnings for (mostly) US-based companies in the Coresight 100, our focus list of retailers, brand owners and real estate firms.

  • Apparel and footwear brands posted strong results, with seven out of eight covered companies reporting revenues that beat consensus estimates.
  • About 75% of covered beauty brands and retailers saw strong year-over-year revenue growth, ranging from 9% to 12%.
  • The consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector suffered due to currency fluctuations and rises in commodity prices, transportation costs and tariffs. The department store sector also struggled in the second quarter, with four out of five stores reporting negative comps.
  • The apparel specialty retail sector reported a mixed quarter, while the e-commerce sector continued to post strong growth.
  • REIT companies maintained their growth momentum, while luxury retailers witnessed a soft quarter.
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Executive Summary

Flipkart’s annual Big Billion Days (BBD) sales event and Amazon’s Great Indian Festival (GIF) kicked off on September 29, and are running for six days through October 4. Here are the highlights so far:

  • Flipkart reported record sales on day 1 of BBD by registering “2X sales growth” of BBD 2018’s opening day.
  • Customers looking for financing options such as Flipkart Pay Later and no-cost equal monthly installments (EMIs) spent 2.5 times more than other customers.
  • Major categories including women’s ethnic wear, beauty, kids wear, sports, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs), baby care, private labels and furniture surpassed Day 1 BBD 2018 total sales.
  • Flipkart said the number of buyers from tier two and three cities have doubled compared to the same period in 2018.
  • Amazon said that its GIF sale surpassed expectations, with INR 7.5 billion ($105 million) worth of premium smartphones sold in first 36 hours of the sale.
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Executive Summary

Continuing our Holiday 2019 series, this report offers our full look at expected US retail demand this November and December.

  • We expect to see a 4.0% year-over-year increase in US retail sales during the holiday months of November and December.
  • This is in the context of recent solid retail growth: Total retail sales in the latest three months expanded 4.1% year over year.
  • We expect to see slightly more than 23% of all nonfood retail sales go online this holiday season, up 200 basis points year over year.
  • Lower gas prices are a plus for holiday spending, providing as much as an incremental 50 basis points to sales growth.
  • This year has six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than 2018 – the shortest possible holiday calendar.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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