Market Navigator: US Retail and E-Commerce—Uncovering Opportunities in a Changing Landscape

Published – September 2023

Each Market Navigator report offers an in-depth, data-rich view of a retail, consumer or technology sector and is packed with data on sectors, segments, companies and consumers. Our analysts discuss at greater length the sector themes they are observing and the insights they are forming on their markets. We intend these definitive guides to serve as points of reference to those in the retail ecosystem, guiding readers’ strategic decision-making and assisting them in tapping opportunities and navigating disruption in retail and adjacent industries.

In this Market Navigator report, Coresight Research explores the US retail and e-commerce market in the post-pandemic retail environment. We provide the size and trajectory of the US retail and e-commerce market for 2023 and beyond, as well as critical factors impacting market growth. We also discuss e-commerce penetration, distribution channels, the competitive landscape, key themes and innovators, and blue-sky thinking for the market.

Data in this research report include:

• US retail and e-commerce market size and year-over-year growth rates for 2018–2027E
• Total US retail market sales by channel (online and offline) and sector for 2018–2027E
• Total US online retail sales and year-over-year growth rates for 2018–2027E
• Leading retailers in the US ranked by revenue, e-commerce revenue and total global operating margins for 2018–2022
• Proprietary survey data on where consumers shop for food and nonfood products

Introduction

What We Think

• Value-Focused Shopping on the Rise
• Elevated Inventories Remain a Headwind
• Continued Downward Pressure on Operating Margins and Profitability
• Sustainability, Inclusivity and Wellness Remain Crucial for Retailers
• Industry Consolidation Wave to Continue

Blue-Sky Thinking

• Generative AI
• Lean Retail
• Transparent Retail

The US Retail Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• Breakdown of Total Retail Sales into Online and Offline Channels
• US Retail Sales by Sector

E-Commerce Market

• Breakdown of US Online Retail Sales by Sector

Market Factors

• Real GDP Growth
• Interest Rates
• Unemployment Rate
• Changes in Demographic and Evolving Cultural Norms
• Consumer Confidence
• Ongoing Product Innovation
• Aggressive Marketing and Enhanced Customer Experience
• Inflation

Competitive Landscape

• Revenues
• Key Comparable Metrics
• Store Numbers and Changes
• Store Traffic
• Benchmarking to BEST

Survey Analysis: Where Consumers Are Shopping in the US and What Are They Buying

• All Retailers: Food Products
• All Retailers: Nonfood Products
• E-Commerce: Grocery and Nongrocery Products

Themes We Are Watching

• Responsive
• Engaging
• Socially Responsible
• Expansive
• Tech-Enabled

Macro Context

• Unemployment and Wages
• Real Disposable Income Per Capita
• Savings Rate
• Interest Rates and the Housing Market
• Consumer Spending
• Gasoline Prices

Retail Innovators

• GhostRetail
• Happy Returns
• Impact Analytics
• Prevedere

Methodology

Appendix: Company Profiles

Appendix: About the Coresight Research BEST Framework

Appendix: About the Coresight Research RESET Framework

62-page PDF report

Albertsons Companies, Apple, Amazon, Costco Wholesale, CVS Health Corporation, Home Depot, Kroger, Lowe’s Companies, Target Corporation, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Walmart

1. US Retail Market (Ex. Gasoline and Automobiles): Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
2. US Retail Market (by Channel): Online and Offline Sales (USD Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Penetration (%)
3. US Retail Sales (by Sector): Sales (USD Bil.) and Growth (YoY % Change)
4. US Online Retail Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
5. US Online Retail Sales (by Sector): Sales (USD Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Share of Total Online Sales (%)
6. US: Real GDP YoY Growth (%)
7. US: Fed Rate (%)
8. US: Unemployment Rate and Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (%)
9. US Single-Person Households and Population Aged 65+ (Millions)
10. US Consumer Sentiment Index
11. US: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Import Price Index, YoY % Changes
12. Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect to Change, Their Shopping Habits in Grocery as a Result (% of Respondents)
13. Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Nongrocery as a Result (% of Respondents)
14. Leading Offline and Online Retailers: US Revenues (USD Bil.)
15. Selected Leading US Retailers: US E-Commerce Revenues/GMV (USD Bil.)
16. Selected Leading US Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms: Total Global Operating Margins* (Ordered by FY22 US Revenue)
17. Selected Leading US Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms (Ordered by FY2022 US Revenue): Key Comparable Metrics
18. Selected Leading US Retailers: US Store Numbers (Ranked by Store Count)
19. US Selected Leading Retailers (Ordered by FY2022 US Revenue): YoY % Change in Store Traffic
20. The BEST Framework
21. BEST Framework and Benchmarking
22. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Food Products from in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents)
23. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Nonfood Products from in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents)
24. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Made E-Commerce Purchases in the Past Three Months Ended July 4, 2023 (% of Respondents)
25. Selected Public US Retailers’ Latest-Quarter EPS (YoY % Change) and Commentaries on Financial Performance
26. Selected Public US Retailers’ Latest-Quarter Inventory Values (YoY % Change) and Commentaries on Supply Chain
27. Completed Notable M&A Transactions in the US Retail Sector in YTD 2023 (As of May 15, 2023)
28. US: Nutrition/Diet Changes Adults Have Adopted To Manage/Reduce Stress (% of Respondents)
29. Selected US Retailers’ Key Private-Label Brands
30. US Retail Media Advertising Revenue (USD Bil.)
31. US Unemployment Rate (Left Axis, %) and US Average Hourly Wages (Right Axis, %)
32. US Annualized Real Disposable Income Per Capita (USD)
33. Personal Saving Rate (%)
34. US Real and Nominal Consumer Spending Growth (YoY % Change)
35. US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (USD per Gallon)*