What's Inside

We consider the US macroeconomic outlook for 2025 as of the start of June 2025, including metrics that directly impact the consumer economy and in the context of the myriad of recent tariffs announcements made by the US government.

Dive into our proprietary consumer sentiment data as well as our insights on inflation, interest rates, the housing market and more. Understand key retail and consumer economy tailwinds and headwinds as we head into the second half of the year.

Data in this research report include:

• Proprietary survey data on consumers’ expectations for their own personal financial situation
• Proprietary survey data on the impact they expect tariffs to have on them
• Survey data on the ways consumers’ are responding to inflation
• Year-over-year changes in US macroeconomic metrics—including GDP growth, CPI, credit delinquency, the personal savings rate and the home price index

Companies mentioned in this report include: Aldi, Costco, Temu, The TJX Companies, Walmart

Other relevant research:

• Retail 2025: What Will Redefine US Retail?—Coresight Research Predictions
• Market Navigator: US Retail and E-Commerce—Seizing Opportunities Amid a Changing Landscape
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.