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US Back to School 2023: Retail Outlook—Macro Context and Consumer Plans​

What's Inside

As we move into peak summer ahead of the new school year, we present our outlook for the US back-to-school (BTS) retail season. We contextualize our overall expectations with macroeconomic data and findings from a proprietary survey of US consumers.

Data in this research report include:

  • Estimated US BTS retail sales, 2020–2023E
  • Macro context—leading indicators of US retail sales, inflation
  • US consumers’ plans to shop for BTS—when, where, what and how much
  • US consumer attitudes to BTS shopping
  • How migration has changed the BTS landscape—the under-18 population, by geography

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar, Target, TJX, Walmart

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