Executive Summary

  • This week’s note from Deborah Weinswig explores how the US retail industry will look in 2020, and includes an analysis of the segments that comprise retail, as well as their sizes and respective growth rates.
  • A diverse group of investors is making big bets on beaten-down shopping centers as mall owners such as Simon Property Group and General Growth Properties shift their focus to prime properties in desirable locations that generate heavy foot traffic.
  • German retail giant Metro Group plans to introduce MyMart, its convenience store brand, to China this year. The company intends to open two MyMart stores in Shanghai first, and later open stores in other cities across the country. Metro would like to advance its franchise businesses by seeking out experienced, local partners and growing further.
  • WeChat launched version 1.0 of its long-anticipated office chat app, WeChat Enterprise, which can replace group email and make quick chats between colleagues easier. The app’s useful add-ons let employees mark when they are on a break and hold group voice/text chats. The app also has work-specific features, such as automated forms for reimbursement and vacation requests.

Executive Summary

  • Kimberly Clark reported 1Q16 revenues of $4.5 billion, down 4.6% year over year and slightly missing the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.53, beating the consensus estimate by two cents and representing a 7.7% increase.
  • Organic revenue growth was 2%, however exchange rates hurt revenues by 7%.
  • For 2016, negative currency translation effects are expected to push revenues towards the lower end of up 5%–6% range. EPS is expected to be within the range of $5.95–$6.15, representing 3% to 7% growth.

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Steve Madden reported 1Q16 revenues of $329.4 million, up 1.7% year over year and above the consensus estimate of $325.5 million. EPS was $0.33, in line with consensus and up 4.6% from the year-ago period.
  • Comps for the retail business increased by 10.7%. The Steve Madden and Dolce Vita divisions drove growth in the wholesale footwear business, which was partially offset by a decline in wholesale accessories.
  • The company reiterated its 2016 guidance for 2%–4% revenue growth and EPS of $1.93–$2.03, which is in line with consensus estimates of $1.4 billion in revenue and EPS of $2.02.
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Executive Summary

  • Alphabet reported 1Q16 revenues of $20.3 billion, up 17.4% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS was $7.50, missing the consensus estimate of $7.96.
  • Google websites were the primary revenue growth driver, up 20.1%, but Google Network Members’ website revenue grew by only 3%.
  • Aggregate paid clicks increased by 29% year over year, and paid clicks on Google websites increased by 38% year over year alongside continuing decreases in cost per click.

Executive Summary

  • Skechers announced fiscal 1Q16 revenues of $978.8 million, up 27.4% year over year and above the $914.9 million consensus estimate. EPS was $0.63, beating the consensus estimate by $0.09.
  • The strong performance was a direct result of a 47.1% year-over-year increase in the company’s international wholesale business, a 23.2% increase in company-owned retail sales and a 9.8% comp increase at retail stores.
  • The company provided revenue guidance of $875–$900 million for 2Q16, below the consensus estimate of $912.9 million.
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Executive Summary

  • French luxury group Kering reported 1Q16 revenue of €2,724 million, up 2.7% from 1Q15.
  • The Luxury Activities segment’s revenue rose by 2.8% year over year, with Gucci sales up 2.9%. The Sports and Lifestyle Activities segment’s revenue increased by 2.6%, with Puma sales up 3.7%.
  • CEO François-Henri Pinault said that the company is confident it will extend its “growth trajectory over the full year.”

 

 

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Executive Summary

  • Hanesbrands reported net sales of $1.22 billion, up 0.8% from a year ago and slightly above the consensus estimate.
  • Adjusted EPS was $0.26, up 18% from a year ago and beating consensus of $0.22.
  • For 2016, the company continues to expect net sales of $5.8–$5.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.85–$1.91. The guidance reflects synergies from the acquisitions of Maidenform, Knights Apparel and Hanes Europe Innerwear.
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Executive Summary

  • Under Armour reported 1Q16 EPS of $0.04 versus the consensus estimate of $0.02.
  • Total revenues were $1.05 billion, up 30% year over year, versus expectations of $1.04 billion.
  • Full-year guidance calls for revenues of $5.0 billion, versus prior guidance of $4.95 billion and consensus of $4.99 billion. Operating income is now expected to be $503–$507 million versus prior guidance of $503 million.

Executive Summary

Agenda
Consumer Trends

  • Womenswear Plus-Size Market
  • The Silver Consumer
  • Performance Fabrics & Smart Textiles
  • Healthy Lifestyles & Self-Tracking
  • The Caring Economy
  • Thrifty Shoppers
  • The Tech Titans
  • Owning Grocery as a Pipe into the Home
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Executive Summary

  • Blockchain technology creates a secure transaction ledger database that records and stores every transaction that occurs in a network of decentralized computers, essentially eliminating the need for “trusted” third parties such as payment processors.
  • The four pillars of blockchain technology are security, transparency, trust and speed. The manner in which transactions occur provides all four for all participants, and transactions occur in minutes, if not seconds, rather than over the longer time frame that many banking activities require.
  • Blockchain can be used to transform the way music, media and movies are obtained online.
  • It enables the transfer of ownership and assets to be completed and stored, and the provenance of information and items to be proven.
  • The technology could offer new and innovative ways of storing, providing and tracking healthcare and insurance information.
  • If the technology is successfully developed, the entire financial services and securities systems could be transformed.
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Executive Summary

  • In its preliminary results for 1Q16, Zalando reported revenue growth in the range of 22.5% to 24.5%, to €788 million to €801 million, below a consensus of €838 million.
  • The company expects its 1Q16 EBIT margin to be in the range of 1.5% to 3.5%, down from 4.5% in 1Q15.
  • Zalando expects to deliver 20% to 25% revenue growth and an adjusted EBIT margin of 3.0% to 4.5% during FY16.
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Executive Summary

  • Primark’s revenue was £2,667 million for 1H16 (ended February2016), up 4.7% from 1H15. Its interim operating margin fell by 91 basis points year over year, to 11.7%.
  • Primark’s parent firm, Associated British Foods (ABF), reported adjusted basic and diluted EPS of 46.1 pence for the period, unchanged from 1H15 but above the consensus estimate of 42 pence.
  • The company noted that Primark has been well received by customers in the US since its launch in the country in September 2015. Management said that “footfall and sales density have increased steadily as awareness of the Primark brand…continues to grow.”
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Executive Summary

  • One-click physical “Buy” buttons allow users to seamlessly restock household essentials, and Amazon Dash first started offering these buttons in April 2015.
  • Now, Israel-based startup Kwik is challenging Amazon Dash by allowing consumers to automatically reorder items from more of the brands they love with just the press of a button.
  • Kwik is opening the market to a much wider range of brands and consumers.
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