Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • About Fung Global Retail & Technology
  • China: 10 Themes
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Executive Summary

  • Lowe’s held an investor meeting on December 7, two years after its last investor meeting. The major themes of the meeting were steady evolution to adapt to customers’ needs and investment in future growth opportunities.
  • The company’s strategic priorities are to: expand home improvement reach to drive profitable share gains; further adapt to the customer, developing capabilities to anticipate and support his or her needs; and generate long-term profitable growth and substantial returns for shareholders.
  • In customer relationships, the company plans to expand its home-improvement reach and further adapt to the customer to differentiate itself; empower customers throughout their project journeys; invest to deliver a differentiated experience; and leverage advanced analytics and use data-driven insights to relieve project pain points and influence project decisions.
  • On the operations side, the company continues to invest to deliver an outstanding experience as well as superior customer service. It is empowering associates with digital assets, as well as improving operational efficiencies.
  • In terms of development, the company has also expanded its geographic and customer reach with the acquisition of Orchard Supply Hardware and RONA, is seeing improved results in Mexico and is expanding its customer reach and capabilities in Canada.
  • Lowe’s reiterated its financial guidance for the year; medium-term financial goals for 2017–2019 are 4% average revenue growth, resulting in 15% annual adjusted EPS growth, which is expected to create about $14 billion of cash to be returned to shareholders during this period.
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Executive Summary

  • Hudson’s Bay Company reported 3Q16 revenues of C$3.3 billion, up 28.6% year over year but below the consensus estimate of C$3.4 billion. EPS was C$(0.69), missing the consensus estimate of C$0.24 and down from C$(0.04) in the year-ago quarter.
  • Total comparable sales declined by 3.6%, driven by weakness in women’s apparel, department stores and the luxury sector.
  • The company expects to see flat to low-single-digit comp growth for the fourth quarter, consistent with previous guidance. For the full fiscal year, the company expects to generate total sales of C$14.5–C$14.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of C$700–C$785 million.
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Executive Summary

  • Amazon announced the launch of Amazon Go, an automated, checkout-free convenience store in Seattle, Washington, powered by technologies such as computer vision, sensor fusion and deep learning.
  • The store is currently being beta tested by company employees before opening to the public in early 2017. Products found at Amazon Go include ready-to-eat meals and snacks prepared by on-site chefs.
  • In this note, we comment on what the launch of the store means for Amazon as well as the grocery industry in the US.

Executive Summary

This is an infographic about cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) into China and covers the size & growth of imports, key drivers and popular channels.

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Executive Summary

  • Regardless of whether or not international retailers have a physical presence in China, cross-border ecommerce (CBEC) platforms are the most efficient means for them to reach Chinese shoppers.
  • Rising disposable incomes and perceptions that overseas products are of higher quality have caused Chinese shoppers to seek imported goods.
  • Even after factoring in a cross-border sales tax announced in April 2016, the after-tax prices of many products purchased through CBEC channels are still lower than the prices of those purchased through traditional channels.
  • In order to succeed in the Chinese CBEC market, international retailers need to keep pace with changing consumer tastes, product categories and platforms.
  • In this report, we examine the types and more popular CBEC platforms such as Tmall Global, JD Worldwide etc., and how they would best complement an international retailer’s China strategy.
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Executive Summary

  • Kroger reported 3Q16 EPS of $0.41, in line with the consensus estimate. Revenues were $26.6 billion, up 5.9% year over year, and above the $26.3 billion consensus estimate.
  • Same-store sales ex fuel were up 0.1%, below the +0.5% consensus estimate, and driven by higher transaction sizes that were more than offset by softer customer traffic. Deflation was 1.5% in 3Q, up from 1.3% in 2Q.
  • Kroger lowered the high end of its 2016 earnings guidance range, now expecting adjusted EPS of $2.10–$2.15 from $2.10–$2.20 previously. Kroger also expects EPS growth to be below the low end of its 8%–11% target range in 2017.

 

 

Executive Summary

  • Dollar General reported 3Q16 EPS of $0.84, including $0.05 of expenses and charges, and missing the $0.93 consensus estimate. Revenues were $5.32 billion, up 5.0% year over year, and slightly below the $5.36 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comps declined by 0.1%, due to a decline in traffic, partially offset by higher transaction values.
  • Dollar General now expects 2016 EPS growth at the low end of the 10%–15% range, with the 53rd week contributing 200 basis points to sales and $0.09 to EPS.
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Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is offering a similar number of promotions and sales this week as it did during the same week last year. The retailer is offering up to two online or in-store-exclusive promotions. Last year during the same week, the retailer offered three online or in-store-exclusive promotions. In both years, Bloomingdale’s promoted its Beauty Treats discounts, but with different offers: this week, shoppers can take $20 off every $150 beauty purchase, while last year during the same week, Loyallists got a $25 reward card for every $200 beauty purchase. The retailer used text message marketing in both years.
  • JCPenney is promoting fewer sales this week than it did during the same week last year. The retailer is focusing on its Customer Appreciation Sale this week, while it featured a variety of promotions last year, including a Friends and Family Sale and a Holiday Home Sale. In both years, JCPenney offered a one-day, online-exclusive sale featuring 30% off purchases of $100 or more.
  • Kohl’s is running a similar number of sales this year as it did during the same week last year. In both years, the retailer promoted a Friends and Family Sale and a Gift Sale along with Kohl’s Charge and Kohl’s Cash offers. In its Friends and Family Sales in both years, Kohl’s offered 25% off purchases. For the Kohl’s Charge promotion, the company offered an extra 25% off discount this week, while last year during the same week, the extra discount varied, totaling either 30%, 20% or 15%.
  • Macy’s is running fewer promotions this week than it did last year during the same week. The company is focusing on a Friends and Family Sale this week by offering 30% off on designers that are rarely on sale. Last year during the same week, Macy’s also ran a Friends and Family Sale, but featured other promotions, too, including a One-Day Sale and Late-Breaking Specials.
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Executive Summary

Hard discounters Aldi and Lidl are moving into e-commerce in both the grocery and nongrocery categories. This year, Aldi announced it will move into the Chinese market purely through e-commerce, while Lidl Germany is planning to trial a grocery click-and-collect service in Berlin.

These are our key takeaways on balancing no-frills discount with the added costs of e-commerce:

  • If discounters are willing to invest to build scale in grocery e-commerce, using “dark stores” dedicated to picking online orders seems to be a better option than picking from regular stores, due to the small size of the discounters’ stores.
  • New delivery options are lowering the costs of home delivery: using “Uberized” third-party couriers would be a more cost-effective, low-investment and scalable model than using temperature controlled, company-owned delivery trucks. This model is already being used by AmazonFresh in the UK.
  • We believe one significant challenge will be the deleveraging effect of smaller average basket sizes online: the highly limited choice offered by Aldi and Lidl will almost certainly yield lower online order values than at nondiscount rivals. This would make the economics of online retail even more detrimental for discounters than they are for their nondiscount peers.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the startup companies focused on supply chain solutions that gave pitches at Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Breakfast with The Disruptors event in New York this week.
  • This year, Black Friday broke records. The kickoff to the holiday shopping season saw both the highest total Black Friday sales ever and the highest mobile sales on a single day to date. Total sales increased by 21.6% year over year to $3.34 billion, representing the first time Black Friday sales surpassed the $3 billion mark.
  • British online luxury fashion retailer Matchesfashion.com is set to launch a 90-minute delivery service across London. Beginning December 5, customers will be able to place orders as early as 6:30 a.m. for the first delivery at 8 a.m. The last delivery will be at 10 p.m. each day. The service will be available in areas that lie within the M25 freeway that surrounds Greater London.
  • Retailers in South America have caught on to the Black Friday shopping frenzy, and many offered in-store and online discounts all week, which they referred to as “Black Friday Week” specials. In Brazil, Black Friday sales are expected to have increased by 30% this year, according to ecommerce monitoring company Ebit. Google saw a 65% increase in searches related to Black Friday in Brazil.

Executive Summary

  • Five Below reported 3Q16 revenues of $199.5 million, up 17.6% from last year’s $169.7 million, and slightly below the consensus estimate of $200.7 million. EPS was $0.10, ahead of the $0.09 consensus estimate and up 25% year over year.
  • Comps sales declined 0.2%, below consensus of 1.1%, driven by decreased comp transactions. The company attributed the comps decline to the strong performance of last year’s comp.
  • For 4Q, Five Below raised the low end of sales guidance while keeping the high end unchanged compared to prior guidance. The company is expecting total sales in the range of $391 million to $397 million and EPS of $0.89–$0.92.

Executive Summary

  • ULTA Beauty reported 3Q16 EPS of $1.40, ahead of the $1.37 consensus estimate, and up 26.1% year over year. Revenues rose 24.3% from the year-ago quarter to $1.13 billion, also beating the consensus estimate of $1.11 billion.
  • Comp sales, including the impact from ecommerce sales, increased 16.7% year over year, beating the 14.8% consensus estimate. That growth was driven by an 11.1% gain in transaction volume and a 5.6% higher average ticket sale. Total ecommerce sales increased 59.1% year over year to $73.6%, contributing 240 basis points of the total company comp sales increase.
  • ULTA Beauty raised its FY16 guidance and now expects EPS growth in the high 20% range versus previous guidance of mid-twenties percentage. The company projects comps to be up 13%–15%, versus previous guidance of 12%–14% and the 13.8% consensus estimate.
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Executive Summary

  • Unilever is to focus on driving sales of its core portfolio in high-growth segments and on reducing costs; the company anticipates annual core operating margin growth to rise from the current range of 20 bps–40 bps to 40 bps–80 bps between 2017 and 2019.
  • Unilever will continue to focus on evolving its product portfolio and developing the channels through which it reaches its customers.
  • In the foods segment, millennial consumers’ focus on health, wellness and vegetarianism is among the key trends on which Unilever will concentrate.
  • In personal care, Unilever anticipates strong demand for men’s grooming products and products made for the Muslim consumer market.
  • Sustainability is an important focus across all categories.

Executive Summary

  • Express reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $0.11, below the $0.13 consensus estimate and down 64.5% year over year. Revenues totaled $506.1 million, down 7% year over year but above the consensus estimate.
  • Men’s was the strongest product category in the quarter, comping ahead of women’s. E-commerce also performed well, delivering 15% growth following a marketing and merchandising method update designed to enhance selection.
  • The company expects FY16 comparable sales in the negative high-single digits, compared with 6% growth a year ago. Adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.78–$0.82, down from $1.45 a year ago.
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