Executive Summary

  • Supergroup reported 1H17 revenue growth of +31.1% year over year to £334.0 million, in line with the consensus estimate. New retail space contributed 15.0% to total sales growth. Retail comparable store sales increased 12.8% year over year in 1H17.
  • 1H17 gross margin is expected to contract by 130bps, mainly reflecting a greater share of lower-margin wholesale revenues, as well as the dilutive impact from targeted clearance activity. The channel mix impact will contribute to about 80-90bps of gross margin erosion.
  • The company expects 1H17 profit to fall in the range of £20-22 million, suggesting 9% year-over-year growth at the range midpoint, and FY17 profit to be in line with market expectations of £84.6 million. In 2H17, the company expects small gross margin accretion after some initial headwinds from input cost inflation. If this is delivered, this would suggest FY17 gross margin erosion of 40-60bps.
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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $0.17 versus the consensus estimate of $0.41. The miss was driven by SG&A expenses. Total revenues were $5.63 billion, inline with analysts’ expectations. Comparable-store sales declined by 3.3% on an owned basis and by 2.7% on an owned-plus-licensed basis.
  • Sales results accelerated in the third quarter relative to the first half of the year and management expressed confidence that it will be able to reach its targets for the fourth quarter, owing in part to improved trends in the apparel business.
  • The company reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance of $3.15–$3.40 versus consensus of $3.37. Comps on an owned-plus-licensed basis are expected to be (2.5)%–(3.0)% versus (3.0)%–(4.0)% previously. Comps on an owned basis are expected to be 50basis points lower.
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Executive Summary

  • Ralph Lauren reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS of$1.90, beating the consensus estimate of $1.71.
  • Revenues decreased by 7.6%, to $1.82 billion, from $1.97 billion in the second quarter last year, and beat the consensus estimate of $1.81 billion. Comparable-store sales decreased by 8%on a reported basis and by 9% in constant currency versus consensus estimates that called for declines of 6% and 7%, respectively.
  • The company maintained its fiscal year 2017 guidance for net revenues to decrease at a low single-digit rate. The company continues to expect its full-year operating margin to be 10%.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” takes a look at the Singles’ Day shopping fever that will engulf China and much of the rest of the world this November 11.
  • As consumers begin their holiday shopping earlier, retailers are ramping up holiday promotions. Industry experts urge retailers not to panic yet over consumers’ continued reluctance to splurge on apparel and accessories. However, many retailers are finding that they have to sell goods for less, and most are saying that they are discounting at the same rate as a year ago.
  • Amazon’s apparel sales grew by 5% in October year over year and by 85% month over month, according to One Click Retail. Growth in the men’s category was particularly strong. Amazon’s traction in its apparel business is mostly in basics.
  • Nike has opened a space called the Kicks Lounge in the Costanera Center mall in Santiago, Chile. The 4,434-square-foot store is the first Kicks Lounge in the region and the sixth in the world. Chile has become a hub in Latin America for sneaker culture, and the specialty store will offer exclusive Nike sneakers not found in other locations.

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Executive Summary

  • Burberry reported a 4% decline in 1H17 total group constant-currency revenue growth to £1,159 million (up 5% in reported currency), below the consensus estimate of £1,165 million. Total results were negatively impacted by weakness in the wholesale and licensing businesses.
  • Total retail sales increased 2% year over year at constant currency (down 11% in reported currency) to £859 million. The retail business was driven by strength in the UK. Wholesale sales declined by 14% year over year at constant currency (down 6% at reported currency) to £287 million in FY17.
  • 1H17 gross margin contracted by 80 basis points and the SG&A margin increased by 50bps, resulting in operating margin contraction of 120bps. 1H17 adjusted EPS declined by 6.2% year over year, in line with consensus.

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Executive Summary

  • The UK’s second-biggest grocery retailer, Sainsbury’s, reported 1H17 comparable sales growth of (1.0)%.
  • Sainsbury’s grew total revenues by 1.8% to £12.6 billion, ahead of the analyst consensus of £12.4 billion.
  • Underlying diluted EPS fell by 8.8%, but marginally beat analysts’ expectations.
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Executive Summary

  • Italian online fashion retailer YOOX Net-a-Porter reported net revenues of €435.4 million in 3Q16, up 11.7% year over year on a reported basis and up 19.0% year over year at current exchange rates. Net revenues were slightly below the consensus estimate of €440.4 million.
  • 3Q16 sales growth was driven by strong performance in the US and Asia-Pacific regions, where sales increased by 17.8% and 36.8%, respectively. UK sales increased by 13.5% year over year. In the first nine months, the average number of monthly unique visitors across the company’s sites rose by 6.2% year over year, from 25.9 million in 9M15 to 27.5 million in 9M16, and orders increased by 18.3%, to 5.9 million, compared with 5.0 million in 9M15.
  • YOOX Net-a-Porter expects to achieve further revenue growth and year-over-year improvement in its adjusted EBITDA margin in FY16. All of the group’s business lines are expected to contribute to EBITDA margin expansion.
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Executive Summary

  • Boston-based online home goods retailer Wayfair reported adjusted 3Q16 EPS of $(0.54), ahead of the $(0.59) consensus estimate, but down from $(0.13) in the year-ago period. Revenues were $861.5 million, up 45.0% year over year and above the consensus estimate of $845.9 million.
  • Orders in 3Q16 totaled 3.4 million, above the consensus estimate of 3.2 million. Average order value was $244, compared with $235 in the year-ago period. Ending active customers totaled 7.4 million, up 60% year over year and versus consensus of 7.3 million. Mobile orders accounted for 40.3% of the total, up from 35.1% in the year-ago quarter.
  • For 4Q16, Wayfair expects revenue of $920–$960 million, below the $1.03 billion consensus estimate. Additionally, the company expects direct retail revenue in the range of $890–$925 million, below the $995 million consensus estimate.
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Executive Summary

  • CVS reported 3Q16 adjusted EPS of $1.64, up 28.0% year over year and beating the $1.57 consensus estimate. Revenues were $44.6 billion, up 15.5% year over year, missing the $45.3 billion consensus estimate.
  • Pharmacy Services was the fastest-growing segment, with revenues up 19.2% year over year, to $30.4 billion; revenues in the Retail/Long-Term Care (LTC) segment grew by 12.5%.
  • The company reduced and narrowed its 2016 adjusted EPS guidance range to $5.77–$5.83 from $5.81–$5.89. Preliminary 2017 adjusted EPS guidance is $5.77–$5.93, below the consensus estimate of $6.53.

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Executive Summary

  • UK clothing-and-food retailer Marks & Spencer (M&S) reported 1H17 sales up 0.9% in total. The closely watched UK Clothing and Home segment posted 1H comps of (5.9)%, versus (0.9)% for the better-performing Food segment.
  • Clothing and Home reported comps of (2.9)% in 2Q17, a sequential improvement from (8.9)% in 1Q17. Food posted comps of (0.9)% in both 1Q17 and 2Q17.
  • The company announced plans to close all its company-owned stores in 10 overseas markets, reduce its UK full-line store numbers by 60 and rebalance some remaining UK space from Clothing and Home to Food.
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Executive Summary

  • Primark’s owner Associated British Foods (ABF), reported its FY16 results for the year ended September 17, 2016. This flash report will only focus on Primark, ABF’s retail division.
  • Primark revenues for FY16increased 9.0% year over year at constant currency, and reported sales increased 11.0% year over year to £5,949 million. Comparable-store sales decreased by 2.0% year over year.
  • For FY16, Primark’s operating profit margin was 11.6%, down 100 basis points from 12.6% in FY15, driven by the euro’s weakening against the US dollar.
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Executive Summary

Traffic Is Down, but Malls Are Still a Fixture

This is the first report in a three-part series in which Fung Global Retail & Technology analyzes the US mall landscape.

  • There are 1,221 malls in the US today, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC). The number of malls increased by more than 300% from 1970 to 2015. Given the oversaturation of malls in the US, we believe that at least 30% of malls—mostly within the C and D classifications—need to be closed.
  • Malls classified as A properties are the most productive: they account for only 20% of all malls, yet represent 72% of total mall sales.
  • Even though retail traffic at malls has declined, retailers such as Tesla Motors and Apple are choosing to locate stores in malls in order to expose their brands to meaningful traffic.
  • The top 10 malls in the US see average sales per square foot of over $1,000. Four of these malls are located in Florida and two are in New Hampshire, which has no sales tax. Two are in tourist locations and two are outlet malls.
  • Other reports in this series will analyze department stores in malls, trends impacting malls, malls’ evolution and store concepts that are expanding.

 

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Executive Summary

  • Bloomingdale’s is offering fewer promotions this week than it did during the same week last year. The retailer offered up to four online-exclusive sales during the same week last year, but no in-store-exclusive promotions. This week, it is only offering one online-exclusive sale and one in-store Veterans Day sale. The retailer is using text message marketing this week, which it did not use during this week last year.
  • JCPenney is promoting fewer sales this week than it did during the same week last year. The retailer is offering one nine-hour, online-exclusive promotion this week, while it offered a two-day, online-exclusive promotion last year. This week, JCPenney began its Black Friday promotions, which it did not begin during the same week last year.
  • Kohl’s is running fewer sales this year than it did during the same week last year. The company is offering shoppers two online-exclusive sales this week, while it ran six online-exclusive sales last year. Kohl’s is currently offering a Kohl’s Cash promotion, while it promoted both Kohl’s Charge and Kohl’s Cash last year at this time. Kohl’s is not using text message marketing this week, but did during this week last year.
  • Macy’s is offering fewer promotions this week than it did last year during the same week. The company is focused on promoting its Election Day sale this week, but offered only general weekly sales last year. Macy’s ran more category-specific sales this week last year, such as a designer pop-up sale and a men’s private sale and clearance promotion.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the likelihood of Amazon becoming a majority marketplace, in terms of share of unit sales, in the fourth quarter.
  • Black Friday deals have not varied much in the past several years. Ads and circulars for retailers such as Target, Walmart and Best Buy look almost identical this year to how they looked in past years, featuring nearly the same discounts on the same products.
  • German grocer Lidl is set to sell online in Spain, following similar moves in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. A company representative stated that Lidl will not be able to neglect the digitalization trend, but that it will always aim to “guarantee quality at the lowest price.”
  • Walmart is relaunching its hypermarket concept in Brazil, with the opening of Walmart Tamboré in São Paulo and the rebranding of Big Novo Hamburgo in Rio Grande do Sul and Big Santa Felicidade in Parana as Walmart outlets. The company is investing R$1 billion (US$309 million) over the next three years in the rebranding of the Big supermarkets and in the relaunch of the hypermarket concept.

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Executive Summary

  • German athletic and sportswear company Adidas Group reported 3Q16 net sales of €5,413 million, up 13.8% on a reported basis and up 17.0% on a constant-currency basis. Net sales for the quarter were above the consensus estimate of £5,368 million. The strong revenue increase was underpinned by double-digit sales growth in all the group’s geographic markets except Russia.
  • 3Q16 gross margin contracted by 90 basis points year over year to 47.6%, due to foreign-exchange headwinds. Underlying EPS of €1.88 expanded 12.6% year over year, in line with the analyst consensus estimate.
  • For fiscal year 2016, the company confirmed its guidance outlook for group sales to increase in the high teens rate at constant currency. FY16 gross margin is expected to be in the range of 48–48.3%, compared to 48.3% in FY15. The operating margin is expected to reach up to 7.5%, marking a 100bps expansion from 6.5% in FY15. Net income is expected to improve to a range of €975 million to €1 billion, up between 35–39% year over year.

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