Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported £1,888 million in group revenues in 1H17, down 2.7% year over year and above the consensus estimate. Retail store sales declined 8.3% year over year, reflecting significant sales erosion.
  • Operating profit margin in 1H17 contracted by 140 basis points to 17.2% year over year. Diluted EPS for 1H17 was 177 pence, down 5.7% year over year and above the consensus estimate of 165 pence.
  • For FY17, the company expects total full-price sales growth to be between (2.0)% and +1.5%. Next looks for FY17 profit before tax (PBT) in the range of £687–£747 million, for year-over-year growth to fall to between (13.1)% and (5.5)%. FY17 EPS growth is expected to decline to between (10.9)% and (3.1)%.

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Executive Summary

  • At the analyst briefing in Hong Kong on March 31, Golden Eagle’s management team discussed the FY16 results and outlined the group’s future strategy, which is to focus on lifestyle concepts, expand its store network and enhance its omnichannel offering.
  • Total gross sales proceeds was ¥16,399.3 million for FY16, up 0.7% year over year. By product category, athleisure and consumer appliances outperformed, while menswear and womenswear underperformed.
  • Gross margin from concessionaire sales and direct sales increased by 0.1% to 17.8% in FY16. The modest margin improvement was attributable to management’s focus on product sales with favorable margins, which was partially offset by an increase in the sales contribution from younger stores that have lower commission rates.

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Executive Summary

  • Major value retailers account for almost one-quarter of the total UK clothing market, we The value apparel market was worth nearly £10 billion in 2016, and sales increased at a CAGR of 3.4% over the past five years.
  • New entrants and higher standards have boosted the UK value clothing The structural “winners,” such as Primark and Boohoo.com, are those that offer a fast- fashion product to a young target customer.
  • Grocery retailers are prominent in the value apparel market, and they appear to have gained sales as a result of the BHS closure in August 2016.
  • Higher standards and an explosion in choice are heaping competitive pressures on long-standing value players.
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Executive Summary

  • The theme of VF Corp.’s Investor Day 2017 was “diversified growth.” The company outlined its five-year plan for growth, which incorporates mid-single-digit sales growth and a 10%–12% earnings CAGR. The company expects lower growth in the plan’s earlier years and accelerating growth in the later years. In terms of regional growth, VF Corp. expects it to be driven by international markets, specifically China. The company expects the direct-to-consumer channel, particularly digital, to grow the fastest. Sales growth in the company’s three biggest brands (Vans, The North Face and Timberland) will contribute as well.
  • Vans is expected to be the best performer among VF Corp.’s major brands over the next five years; the company projects Vans will grow at a CAGR of 8%–10%. The brand is very clear about what it is and what it is not, and management is transparent about the fact that Vans is not for everyone. The brand offers a strong point of view and a clear story.
  • The North Face experienced some weakness in recent years, driven in part by external challenges as well as by internal challenges related to less newness and product innovation. The brand plans to target four distinct sports category/lifestyle segments and to focus on attracting new customers, lessening seasonality and solidifying its mountain sports leadership. The North Face has seen some success in reaching new customers in Europe and is working on that in the US and other markets, too.
  • Timberland is expanding beyond its core category of men’s boots into men’s footwear more generally, as well as women’s footwear and men’s apparel, categories that represent an overall market value of $450 billion.
  • Wrangler is leveraging its strengths to drive future growth. It is shifting from a channel focus and a denim category dominant position to a consumer lifestyle focus on both sides.
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Executive Summary

  • Swedish fast-fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB reported SEK47.0 billion in net sales in 1Q17, slightly below the consensus estimate of SEK48.1 billion and up 8.0% year over year. Constant-currency sales increased by 4.0% in the quarter and UK sales increased 5.0%.
  • Gross margin expanded by 10 basis points year over year to 52.1%, reversing the trend of gross margin erosion in the past year. EPS was SEK1.48 for 1Q17, down 3.9% year over year and above the consensus estimate of SEK1.39.
  • The company stated that group sales including VAT in the period March 1 to March 28, 2017 increased by 7% year over year in constant currencies. H&M is targeting to increase group sales by 10%–15% in constant currencies in FY17. H&M will launch new brand ARKET in early autumn 2017 and open its first H&M Home standalone stores in 2018.

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Executive Summary

  • We believe Walmart—after acquiring a capable e-commerce team from Jet.com—is trying to build an online retail network with Jet.com in the center and other smaller e-commerce brands and retailers at the peripheral.
  • Walmart recently acquired ModCloth, an online retailer of indie and vintage-inspired women’s clothing, for a price of between $50 million and $75 million, according TechCrunch. ModCloth gives Walmart a strong female millennial consumer base.
  • The recent acquisitions of ModCloth, ShoeBuy and Moosejaw aim to increase the assortment of product offerings and attract a wider customer base.
  • We believe the upside potential from these acquisitions remains moderate in the short term, but should become more positive over the medium to long term. The strategy is less about acquiring businesses that can be accretive to Walmart’s bottom line and more about broadening its online offerings and making its online site more competitive and a better experience for consumers.
  • We expect Walmart to continue to make further acquisitions, similar to those already made.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” provides an update on the entry of German grocery discounter Lidl into the US market.
  • According to the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, US consumer confidence is going gangbusters, as The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March spiked to 125.6 versus an expected reading of 114.
  • German business morale was high in February, but the Ifo Institute for Economic Research reported that many German companies doubt that the good conditions in the economy will last. New technologies could lead to “structural upheaval” and disrupt current business conditions.
  • Toyota and NTT are teaming up to work on research and development of connected vehicle technology. Through the partnership, the two companies will share tech and expertise, and create big data research projects using vehicle information collected from Toyota’s fleet of connected cars.

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Executive Summary

  • Restoration Hardware reported 4Q16 adjusted EPS of $0.68, down from $0.98 in the year-ago quarter but above the consensus estimate of $0.65 and inline with company guidance. The retailer reported adjusted revenue of $590.1 million, down 8.8% from $647.2 million in the year-ago quarter but above the $584.2 million consensus estimate.
  • Comparable brand revenue, which includes direct revenue, declined by 18% during the quarter, compared with 9% growth for the same period the prior year. Store revenues decreased by 4% from the year-ago quarter, to $306.2 million. Direct revenues decreased by 15% year over year, to $280.5 million.
  • FY17 guidance calls for EPS of $1.78–$2.19, a wide range compared with the $1.94 consensus estimate. The company expects FY17 revenues of $2.30–$2.40 billion, versus the consensus estimate of $2.33 billion.

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Executive Summary

  • The Belgian Competition Authority (BCA) approved the merger of Ahold and Delhaize Group on March 15, 2016. The approval was conditional upon the divestment of a number of stores and projects, in Belgium, to address competition concerns.
  • Ahold Delhaize announced on March 13, 2017, the first set of sale agreements for the Belgian operations, which included the divestment of five stores and one project.
  • The second set of sale agreements was announced on March 23, 2017, and included the divestment of four stores and one project, in Belgium.
  • The firm’s key priority over the next few years is to make the Delhaize Le Lion banner “the favorite supermarket of the Belgians,” and will invest in strengthening its offer and customer experience.

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Executive Summary

  • Brick-and-mortar stores remain the main channel where consumers buy menswear. Two-thirds of surveyed men have bought menswear online, and only 2.6% say they buy most often online.
  • Amazon menswear customers have doubled over the past five years.  Some 23.4% of men surveyed bought menswear from Amazon, but only 2.1% of purchase menswear most often on the online retailer.
  • Amazon, Kohl’s and Walmart appeal to price-sensitive customers, however, according to consumers, Kohl’s offers better promotions and Macy’s has the edge on quality and style.  This may explain why Amazon has not yet become the most popular go-to place for menswear.
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Executive Summary

This is the fourth report in our series on European startup capitals. Amsterdam is a leading startup hub globally and one of the top European centers for startup development. The main factors that make Amsterdam a leading hub include:

  • Access to capital: Amsterdam-based technology startups have ample access to early-stage funding, crowdfunding and business angel funding.
  • Mentoring and entrepreneurial culture: Amsterdam ranks high in Europe in terms of the number of networking and mentoring events it hosts and in terms of access to accelerators.
  • Market reach: The international orientation of Amsterdam-based startups facilitates their overseas reach.
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Executive Summary

  • Finish Line reported fiscal 4Q17 adjusted EPS of $0.50, missing the consensus estimate of $0.70. The company reported revenues of $557.5 million, down 0.4% from 4Q16 and missing the consensus estimate of $548.1 million.
  • Comparable sales declined by 4.5% year over year, coming in at the low end of the company’s guidance range and missing consensus of (3.7)%.
  • For FY18 (ending March 3, 2018), Finish Line expects a low-single-digit comp increase and EPS of $1.12–$1.23, which would be an improvement of 6%–16% from the prior year. Finish Line’s Macy’s business is expected to hit the highend of its long-term annual sales goal of $350 million in FY18, ahead of the planned timeline.

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Executive Summary

  • We attended Intime Retail Group’s analyst briefing where the Chairman (who is also Alibaba’s CEO), CEO and CFO all spoke about the implementation of the New Retail, which refers to the integration of online and offline retail, and logistics across a single value chain. They all held the view that both online and physical retailers will need to change their operating models, as the mobile internet has drastically changed the way consumers shop.
  • Alibaba’s CEO, David Zhang, stated that Alibaba’s privatization of Intime will give it more room to redefine a new operating model for the New Retail. He expects holistic changes to the company’s retail model as Alibaba seeks to integrate online and offline, and redefine the relationship between consumers, merchandise and stores.
  • Intime seeks to enhance consumers’ experience through “digitalization, omnichannelization, platformization and entertainmentization,” while operating under the key tenets of “customer orientation, staff wellbeing, innovation and reform.”
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Executive Summary

This is the second report in our India Rising series focusing on the Indian startup ecosystem. We identify the following four retailers as the main disruptors in Indian e-commerce: Flipkart, Snapdeal, Quikr, and Bigbasket. There are five primary factors that have shaped the Indian e-commerce sector:

  • A paucity of modern retail stores has boosted demand for products and brands sold online.
  • Strongly price-competitive e-commerce marketplaces are well positioned to attract shoppers with limited incomes, who constitute a large part of India’s consumer population.
  • Offering cash on delivery (COD) as a payment option allows more Indian consumers to buy online.
  • India has one of the world’s largest Internet user bases, and Indian consumers’ disposable incomes are increasing.
  • Government restrictions on foreign investment in India’s retail sector and Amazon’s and Alibaba’s relatively late entries in the country have helped domestic startups gain a strong foothold.
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Executive Summary

  • PVH Corp. reported 4Q16 adjusted EPS of $1.23, above the consensus estimate of $1.19.
  • Total revenues were flat at $2.11 billion and above expectations of $2.09 billion. Calvin Klein revenues increased by 1%, to $795 million, while Tommy Hilfiger revenues increased by 3%, to $932 million.
  • For the full year, the company expects EPS of $7.30–$7.40 versus consensus of $7.26. Revenues for the year are expected to increase by approximately 2% and by approximately 4% on a constant-currency basis.

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