Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape.

This week, we look at Italy signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to be the first Group of Seven (G7) country to cooperate on Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our February US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales excluding gasoline and automobiles increased 2.7% year over year in February, a substantial slowing from the revised 4.9% year-over-year increase in January.
  • In February, six out of 12 major sectors saw a sequential slowing in year-over-year growth, while four sectors saw sales decline year over year.
  • The home-improvement sector saw growth slow dramatically, to 1.4% in February from 9.8% in January. Electronics and appliance retailers posted a decline of 3.1%, worsening from a 1.7% fall in January. In February, nonstore retailers saw sales rise 10.0% year over year, marginally lower than the 10.7% reported in January.
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Executive Summary

This report discusses notable US retail bankruptcies in 2017-2018 and examines key factors that led retailers to collapse.

  • Following a large number of bankruptcy filings in 2017, retail failures continued apace in 2018. Several well-known retailers filed for bankruptcy across the two years, including Sears Holdings and Mattress Firm. 2018 witnessed the liquidation of Toys “R” Us and Bon-Ton Stores.
  • Major factors that led to retail bankruptcies include: Saturation of US physical retail space, changing consumer trends, a declining US middle-class population, burgeoning e-commerce sales and rising debt among retail companies.
  • According to a 2019 BDO survey, 52% of US retail executives believe bankruptcies will rise in 2019, while 51% are preparing for an economic downturn.
  • So far in 2019, seven major retailers (with more than $50 million in liabilities) have filed for bankruptcy. Shopko will liquidate its assets and shut all its locations by June.
  • These bankruptcy filings are occurring at a time of solid US retail growth: The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts US retail sales will grow by a solid 3.8-4.4% in 2019, though slower than the 4.3% seen in 2018, despite the possibility of an economic slowdown and the ongoing US-China trade tensions.
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Executive Summary

The 4-5-4 US retail calendar is a guide to the fiscal year ending February 1, 2020. The calendar, used by many US retailers, ensures comparability between years by dividing the year into months based on a ‘4 weeks–5 weeks–4 weeks’ format.

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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 22, the IRS had received 84.1 million tax returns, down 1.9% year over year.
  • Some 65.8 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 2.6% year over year), totaling $191.9 billion (down 2.9% year over year) and averaging $2,915 (down $10 or 0.3% year over year).
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to a recent Tax Returns Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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Executive Summary

Community group buying refers to an e-commerce model of group purchases by residents within the same neighborhood. Companies launched this service on WeChat mini program to tap into the potential for larger, group purchases from people living in close proximity. There were around 100 community group buying platforms as of December 2018, according to consulting firm iResearch.

  • The community group buying model provides services for residents who live in the same community compound via WeChat, including WeChat group and WeChat mini programs.
  • The community group platform normally offers consumables that have constant demand, such as groceries or daily necessities.
  • Community group buying can offer last-mile delivery, leveraging WeChat to bridge between vendors and customers.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  How Much Influence Do Bloggers Have on Apparel Purchases?

In the US, millennials are much more influenced by bloggers than other age groups are: Some 12.4% of millennials say their apparel purchases are influenced by celebrity bloggers.

Executive Summary

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the US retail sector has risen over the past 10 years, in terms of deal value and number of deals, and deals within the mass-merchandiser sector have increased, dominated by several blockbuster deals.

  • North American retail M&A activity has been steady during 2007–2018, with 148 deals valued at than $10.2 billion in 2018.
  • Motivations for mass-merchandiser M&A include: entering adjacent markets, acquiring key technology and increasing scale, and establishing a presence in fast-growing markets such as China and India.
  • Target has historically made small acquisitions for technology or products; however its most recent purchase – of Shipt for $550 million – has also been its largest, enabling faster delivery times.
  • Walmart completed the transformative acquisition of Jet.com in September 2016, which led to a series of product-related acquisitions. The company acted on the high-growth opportunity in India and acquired a majority stake in its leading marketplace, Flipkart, in August 2018.
  • Gaps in product assortments and the appeal of unique, private-label products has also been a driver behind many acquisitions.
  • The environment for continued M&A remains favorable due to healthy stock valuations, relatively low interest rates, increasing competitiveness and volatility in the retail sector.
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Executive Summary

On March 28, 2019, Foot Locker hosted its investor day. The company focused on its customer-connected strategic framework, strategic initiatives, international expansion plan, Power Store portfolio optimization and five-year financial outlook. 

During the event, Foot Locker: 

  • Updated its purpose — “to inspire and empower youth culture.” 
  • Outlined its customer-connected strategic framework spanning collections, content, community, connectivity and convenience.
  • Said it is investing in physical and digital experiences with the goal of elevating the customer experience.
  • Outlined plans to continue to expand into Asia.
  • Provided its five-year outlook — it aims to grow sales at a compound annual growth rate in the mid-single digits, and it is targeting sales per gross square foot of $525-575.

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Executive Summary

  • H&M reported 1Q19 profit after tax of SEK 803 million, down 41.5% year over year, and EPS of SEK 0.49, down 41.0% year over year but ahead of the SEK 0.31 consensus recorded by StreetAccount. The year-over-year changes in both metrics were impacted by a boost from the US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the year-ago quarter.
  • The company’s gross margin expanded by 10 basis points to 50%, beating the consensus estimate of 49.1% recorded by StreetAccount.
  • In 2019, H&M plans a net addition of 175 stores with most of these stores set to open in growth markets, while it plans to reduce H&M stores in Europe by 50.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our Monthly Consumer Update rounds up key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China.  We focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

Highlights from our February Consumer Update:

  • US wage rises continued to comfortably outpace inflation.
  • UK retail sales growth strengthened, following an acceleration in wage growth.
  • Chinese consumers enjoyed an easing of inflation to 1.5%, helped by slowing inflation in food prices.
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Executive Summary

While the US plus-size apparel market has been studied extensively, China’s plus-size apparel market is less explored. A growing plus-size population will make China’s plus-size market promising.

  • Despite a low obesity rate, the scale of China’s population means plus-size apparel represents a substantial market with significant potential for brands and retailers.
  • Our calculations estimate the women’s plus-size market in China will be worth around $4.8 billion in 2019 — but would be worth over $10 billion if the plus-size segment achieved a share of China’s women’s apparel market equal to the obesity rate among the female population.
  • Plus-size brands and retailers are providing attentive customer service, employing plus-size models and investing in social media to attract customers.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team was in Las Vegas attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference, March 3-6. At Shoptalk, Deborah Weinswig, CEO and Founder of Coresight Research, delivered a presentation on the topic of “Nine Things We Can Learn from China and India.” These are some of the highlights:

  • China leads globally in mobile payments with WeChat Pay and Alipay leading the way.
  • India is also witnessing growing acceptance for digital payments with Paytm and PhonePe leading the charge.
  • Companies in China are seeking to tap the significant opportunities that exist in non-tier 1 cities.
  • Both markets are seeing a strong thrust by retailers to enhance the customer experience by improving delivery efficiency.
  • Word-of-mouth shopping culture in China is a key driver, and influencer marketing is gaining in prominence in India.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date, US retailers have announced 5,480 store closures and 2,458 store openings. This compares to 5,727 closures and 3,239 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Hibbett Sports has announced plans to close 95 stores and open 10-15 Hibbett and City Gear stores in its fiscal 2020.
  • Tommy Hilfiger has shut its global flagship store at 681 Fifth Avenue in New York City.
  • General retailer Ollie’s Bargain Outlet has announced plans to open 42-44 stores in the US in 2019. The retailer has opened 9 stores thus far in 2019.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 310 store closures and 347 store openings.
  • Luxury fashion chain Flannels will open 60 new stores in the next three years in the UK.
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Executive Summary

  • PVH 4Q18 revenues declined 1% to $2.48 billion, as an extra week in the year-ago period and a calendar shift reduced revenues approximately $125 million. Adjusted 4Q18 EPS rose 16.5% to $1.84 versus $1.58 in the same period last year and the $1.76 consensus estimate.
  • Tommy Hilfiger is the stallion in PVH’s brand portfolio, achieving 5% revenue growth (constant currency), 16% comps internationally and 5% comps in North America (NA).
  • The outlook for 2019 includes adjusted EPS of $10.30-10.40 versus $9.60 in the same period last year and includes $0.22 in negative currency impact.

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