Executive Summary

  • ASOS reported 1H19 group sales of £1.31 billion, up 12.0% year over year on a constant-currency basis (up 13.5% as reported) and slightly ahead of the consensus estimate of £1.30 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported diluted EPS of 3.6 pence, down 87.7% year over year, but above consensus of 3.1 pence.
  • ASOS maintained its full-year guidance.

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Executive Summary

  • Tesco reported FY19 total sales of £63.9 billion, up 11.0% year over year on a constant-currency basis (increasing 11.2% as reported) and missing the consensus estimate of €64.5 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • Tesco’s FY19 adjusted operating margin came in at 3.45% versus the company’s long-term aim to hit a 3.5-4.0% margin in FY20. In 2H19, the group operating margin reached 3.96% (3.79% ex Booker).
  • Tesco is focusing on strengthening its balance sheet and delivering free cash flow. It expects a dividend cover level of about two times earnings in FY20.

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Executive Summary

The Greater Bay Area could be China’s answer to Silicon Valley. On February 18, 2019, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council of the People’s Republic of China released a development plan for the Greater Bay Area: Hong Kong, Macau, Guangzhou and the surrounding area (commonly referred to the Pearl River Delta). Beijing has set ambitions of developing the region into a global innovation and finance hub and improving infrastructure connectivity between the cities.

  • The Greater Bay Area (GBA) includes nine Pearl River Delta cities and two special administrative regions, namely Hong Kong and Macau.
  • The government hopes the GBA plan will fuel innovation in technology, to build a smart city cluster and support transport development to encourage trade.
  • The GBA plan provides opportunities for various businesses across different sections to grow and flourish. Especially, we see opportunity for retailers in GBA cities.
  • Drawing upon the success in other bay areas, such as Tokyo Bay Area and San Francisco Bay Area, the GBA shall see human capital and venture capital as important factors to nurture innovation and development.
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Executive Summary

This presentation was given at the Retail Robotics & AI Conference held by the Northwestern Retail Analytics Council and provides insights from the East to the West in new retail and the new supply chain. It discusses the new retail experience and things we can learn from China.

Topics include:

  • The new retail experience is underpinned by the new retail supply chain
  • Data is the key for new product design and to deliver new products to consumers
  • 3D design, AI and robotics are key technologies in the supply chain
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Executive Summary

In this report, we present an analysis of the online-to-offline beauty market.

  • There is an abundance of independent, digitally native beauty brands. Successful digitally native brands are beginning to open physical retail stores, and are differentiating their stores through immersive customer experiences and solving the modern beauty customer’s needs.
  • Even though the beauty research and discovery process often begins online, some 80.7% of global beauty and personal care sales are made in store.
  • Opening a physical retail store increases online traffic for emerging brands 45%, according to an International Council of Shopping Center (ICSC) survey.
  • Specialty retailer Ulta reported significant growth from digitally native brands and said those brands are key to Ulta’s growth strategy.
  • Glossier, a digitally native beauty brand, reached “unicorn” status in March 2019, when the company was valued at over $1 billion. The beauty brand started as a blog, and its founder used readers’ makeup preferences to launch the beauty brand.
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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • Alibaba’s food-delivery platform Ele.me will help vendors in traditional “wet markets” to sell fresh produce to online shoppers.
  • Alibaba’s online travel platform Fliggy has launched a Fliggy Buy function that allows Chinese tourists to pre-order products before they travel.
  • Shiseido has signed a joint business plan with Alibaba to collaborate on product development, marketing and e-commerce.
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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 29, the IRS had received 92.9 million tax returns, down 1.4% year over year.
  • A total of 71.8 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 2.2% year over year), totaling $206.1 billion (down 2.9% year over year) and averaging $2,873 (down $20 or 0.7% year over year).
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to a recent Tax Returns Survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  How Big Is the Women’s Plus-Size Clothing Market in China?

Coresight Research estimates that the women’s plus-size clothing market in China will be worth around US$4.8 billion in 2019 — but that it would be worth over US$10 billion this year if the plus-size segment achieved a share of China’s women’s apparel market equal to the obesity rate among the female population.

Executive Summary

On April 1, 2019, nonprofit organization Goodwill Industries of Greater New York and Northern New Jersey (Goodwill NYNJ) announced a partnership with technology startup Price Technologies (Price) to offer more opportunities for shoppers to buy secondhand items.

  • Price developed a browser extension for Goodwill NYNJ, which alerts shoppers browsing for items on popular sites that the same product they are looking for is available secondhand on the nonprofit organization online shopping portal ShopGoodwill.com.
  • The partnership between Goodwill NYNJ and Price should help the nonprofit organization to further expand its online market share by encouraging shoppers browsing for new items online to consider secondhand alternatives.
  • Through its online shopping portal ShopGoodwill.com, Goodwill NYNJ in the dynamic online product resale market, often termed re-commerce. Resale is expected to significantly outperform total retail: ThredUP’s 2019 Resale Report forecasts US apparel resale to grow at an average annual rate of 16% in the five years through 2023, compared to average annual growth of 3% for retail apparel over the same period.

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Executive Summary

Thanks to its enhanced mobile connectivity, 5G promises to help significantly advance the application of technology in retail operations.

  • 5G will deliver faster speeds and more capacity and responsiveness compared with previous generations of mobile technology.
  • 5G will increase scalability of Internet of Things (IoT) systems, improve their operations and give rise to new use cases.
  • 5G should unleash the full potential of dataintense technology in retail, such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and reality technologies, empowering existing use cases and delivering new applications.
  • The commercial introduction of the new technology is expected to be completed between 2019 and 2020. Once implemented, 5G should expand rapidly and reach 1.3 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by 2023, according to estimates by trade organization 5G Americas.
  • 5G will make the Internet more accessible, making it easier, more efficient and more convenient to shop online, and in turn generating additional revenue for US e-commerce
    of $12 billion per year by 2021, according to technology firm Adobe.
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Executive Summary

  • Seven & i reported a 14.6% increase in net sales and a 5.1% increase in operating income for FY19, ended February 28, 2019.
  • The overseas convenience store business saw a good performance, with operating income increasing by 22.3% year over year. In US dollars, 7-Eleven North America grew net sales by 29.4%, with a 49.3% increase in gasoline sales and a 13.0% increase in merchandise sales.
  • Superstore Ito-Yokado saw operating income increase by 53.0% year over year.
  • Both supermarket chain York-Benimaru and department-store chain Sogo & Seibu saw a fall in operating income, down 9.0% and 35.7%, respectively.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures are approaching the total we recorded for the full year 2018. So far this year, US retailers have announced 5,846 store closures and 2,622 store openings. This compares to 5,854 closures and 3,239 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Five Below will open 145–150 stores in its fiscal 2019.
  • Signet Jewelers plans to close approximately 150 stores in 2019 while opening 20–25 stores.
  • Charlotte Russe has sold its brands to YM and Mamiye Brothers while its liquidation continues.
  • Year to date, UK retail announced store openings and closures are running almost neck and neck, with announced store closures at 326 and store openings at 347.
  • Stationery chain Office Outlet has targeted 16 store closures by April 10, putting 161 jobs at risk.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the outlook for US retail bankruptcies and store closures, and urges retailers to consider fresh approaches to their physical stores. 
  • US retail sales declined a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month over month in February. That was well below the 0.2% increase that economists expected.
  • UK department store retailer Debenhams this week confirmed a £200 million ($265 million) refinancing plan, of which £101 million ($134 million) will be available immediately to begin restructuring. 
  • JD.com has launched a tool called the Online Pricing Optimizer in collaboration with American market measurement company Nielsen.

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Executive Summary

  • Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) reported 4Q18 revenues of C$2.9 billion, down 5.5% year over year and below the consensus estimate of C$3.18 billion. The company reported adjusted 4Q18 EPS of C$0.41, up 583.3% from the year-ago period.
  • For the quarter, group comparable sales were down by 1.4%. By banner, Saks Fifth Avenue comps were up by 3.9%, DSG (which includes Hudson’s Bay, Lord & Taylor, and Home Outfitters) comparable sales were down by 5.2%, and comparable sales at Saks OFF 5TH were down by 2.1%.
  • The company did not offer 1Q19 or full year guidance.

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Executive Summary

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance reported 2Q19 revenues of $34.5 billion, in line with the consensus estimate and up 4.6% year over year. Diluted EPS came in at $1.24, down 8.8% year over year and below the consensus estimate of $1.50.
  • Comps for the Retail Pharmacy USA business fell 3.8%, while Retail Pharmacy International comps decreased 1.4%.
  • For FY19, Walgreens expects flat adjusted EPS, revised down from 7–12% growth.

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