Executive Summary

  • Dollar General reported 2Q19 revenues of $6.98 billion, up 8.4% year over year and above the $6.89 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.74, up 14.5% year over year and comfortably beating the $1.57 consensus estimate.
  • Comps increased 4.0%, beating the 2.5% consensus estimate.
  • The company guided for 2019 revenue growth of 8%, comp growthin the low-to-mid 3% range and EPS of $6.36-6.51 (up 6-9%), and below the $6.53 consensus estimate.
  • Dollar General reaffirmed plans to open 975 new stores, remodel 1,000 mature stores and relocate 100 stores in 2019.

Executive Summary

  • Ulta reported 2Q19 revenues of $1.67 billion, up 12.0% year over year but below the consensus estimate of $1.68 billion. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) were $2.76, up 12.2% from the year-ago period and below the consensus estimate of $2.80.
  • The company saw comparable store sales growth of 6.2% compared to an increase of 6.5% in the year-ago period, lower than the consensus estimate of 6.6%.
  • The company updated full fiscal year guidance to reflect industry-wide headwinds in cosmetics. The company lowered EPS guidance to $11.86-12.06 from $12.83-13.03, versus the consensus of $12.97. Ulta expects revenue growth of 9-12% versus prior guidance of up low double digits and compared to the consensus of 12.3%. Ulta reduced its comp guidance to 4-6% growth from 6-7%, compared to the consensus estimate of 6.7%.
  • Ulta plans to open approximately 80 new stores, remodel or relocate 20, and complete approximately 270 store refreshes. 

Executive Summary

  • Burlington Stores reported fiscal 2Q19 revenues of $1.66 billion, up 10.5% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of $1.63 billion. The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew 18.3% year over year to $1.36, beating the consensus estimate of $1.14.
  • The company saw comparable store sales growth of 3.8%, higher than both the consensus estimate of 1.9% and the company’s guidance of 1.0-2.0%.
  • For 3Q19, Burlington Stores expects to report adjusted EPS of $1.37-1.41, higher than the consensus estimate of $1.33. The company expects revenue growth of 8.5-9.5% in 3Q. For the full fiscal year, Burlington Stores raised its EPS guidance to $7.14-7.22 versus prior EPS guidance of $6.93-7.01 and compared to the consensus estimate of $6.99.

Executive Summary

The Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Report highlights fashion trends that are just emerging, growing quickly or hitting maturity.

The Monthly Fashion Trend Report offers critical insights on evolving trends for designers, planners, retailers, buyers and merchandisers. The trend report is a valuable decision-making tool based on deep quantitative and qualitative analysis using data from Trendalytics. For more data, please see our Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Data Report.

  • Xcel Brands uses quantitative and qualitative data to compile the monthly trend report and create lookbooks sourced from Trendalytics data.
  • Pretty tops with puff sleeves continue to be a top growing fashion trend. Puff sleeves dominate the runway and had the highest rate of online search growth, with an average of 5,239 searches per week, up 287% compared to last year, according to Trendalytics data.
  • Milkmaid tops, an emerging trend which incorporates a puff sleeve, open neckline, and corseted waistline, is attracting contemporary consumers with over 95% of items priced under $50. Over 60% of milkmaid tops are full price.
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Executive Summary

With this series, 30 Global Retail Cities, we profile the world’s major shopping cities – from fashion capitals such as Milan to shopping hubs such as Honolulu and Bermuda. We curated the top retail stores in each city, along with must-see shopping districts, major retail events and innovative store formats.

Click here to view the full 30 Global Retail Cities series.

Highlights: 

  • Barcelona Fashion Week is the fashion event of the year in the Catalan capital, with a 40-year history.
  • Chilean interior designer Jamie Beriestain created a local upmarket concept store for the gentleman, featuring items such as textiles, decorations, lighting, home décor and a café.
  • The 8PM Store is another innovative retailer, combining design, art, fashion and culture. 8PM Store collects products from young independent designers in diverse areas such as industrial design, graphics, apparel, painting, sculptures, ceramics and jewelry.
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Executive Summary

  • Coty’s fiscal 4Q19 revenues declined 8% to $2.12 billion, meeting the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.16, up 14.3%, in line with consensus estimate. 
  • By division, sales in the luxury division (the company’s largest division) increased 5.8% year over year (YoY), consumer beauty sales declined 11.5% YoY, and professional beauty revenues declined 3.1% YoY. 
  • Guidance for FY20 is adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of mid-single-digit growth, stable to slightly lower like-for-like (LFL) net revenues, and adjusted operating net income growth of 5-10% YoY at constant foreign exchange rates. 

Executive Summary

  • Five Below reported 2Q19 revenues of $417.4 million, up 20.0% year over year and missing the $421.1 million consensus estimate. 
  • EPS was $0.51, up 14.8% year over year and beating the consensus estimate by one cent.
  • Comps increased 1.4%, missing the 2.7% consensus and down from 2.7% in the year-ago quarter.
  • The company guided for 2019 revenues of $1.87-1.89 billion, up 20-21% and in line with the $1.89 billion consensus, and guided for EPS of $3.08-3.19, up 16-20% and in line with the $3.16 consensus.

Executive Summary

  • Williams-Sonoma reported fiscal 2Q19 revenues of $1.37 billion, up 7.5% year over year, beating the StreetAccount estimate. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.87, up 13.0% from the year-ago period and ahead of the consensus estimate of $0.83. 
  • Comparable sales accelerated 6.5% versus the consensus estimate of a 3.3% increase, and up from the year-ago period of a 4.6% increase. 
  • For the full fiscal year, the company raised its revenue guidance to $5.74-5.90 billion and EPS to $4.60-4.80, from $5.67-5.84 billion and $4.55-4.75, respectively. The company reiterated its long-term financial targets of net revenue growth of mid to high single digits. 

Executive Summary

  • 2Q19 revenues increased modestly to $2.36 billion versus the $2.33 billion consensus, as currency exchange rates clipped about 200 basis points (bps) from revenue growth, worth some $5 million and $0.06 per share. Adjusted 2Q19 EPS declined 3.8% to $2.10 versus $2.18 in the year-ago quarter and the $1.88 consensus estimate. 
  • Tommy Hilfiger continues to outpace consolidated results, achieving 8% revenue growth (10% constant currency) and 9% comps internationally. The Tommy Hilfiger business in North America declined 5%, dragged down by an 8% comp decline.
  • PVH lowered F19 guidance to reflect a significantly more conservative outlook and now guides for adjusted EPS of $9.30-9.40, down from the previous guidance of $10.20-10.30.

Executive Summary

  • Ollie’s reported 2Q19 revenues of $333.9 million, up 15.9% but missing the $339.8 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.35, down 10.5% and missing the consensus estimate by 11 cents.
  • Comps decreased 1.7%, versus a 4.4% increase in the year-ago quarter and short of the 1.9% consensus estimate.
  • Ollie’s guided for 2019 revenues of $1.42-1.43 billion, up 14-15% and in line with the $1.43 billion consensus, comps to decrease 0.5-1.5% and adjusted EPS of $1.95-2.00, up 7-9% and below the $2.05 consensus estimate.

Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 8,051 store closures and 3,401 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 431 store closures and 632 store openings.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the shifting nature of beauty to be more holistic and health-conscious.
  • Premium shoemaker Cole Haan, acquired in 2013 by private equity firm Apax Partners from Nike, is preparing for an initial public offering.
  • Folli Follie has asked financial advisers to consider selling its British luxury jewelry brand Links of London. An audit found Folli Follie overstated revenues for 2017 by more than €1 billion ($1.1 billion).
  • China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has approved Suning.com’s bid to acquire an 80% stake in Carrefour’s China business, expected to close in September.

Executive Summary

  • Best Buy reported fiscal 2Q20 Revenues of $9.54 billion, up 1.7% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.08, up 18.7% year over year and beating the $0.99 consensus estimate.
  • Enterprise comps increased 1.6%, missing the 2.1% consensus estimate. Domestic comps increased 1.9%, while international comps declined 1.9%.
  • The company narrowed FY20 revenue, comp and adjusted EPS guidance due to the updated tariff situation, better-than-expected earnings and uncertainty regarding consumer purchases in the second half of the year.

Executive Summary

In this report, we analyze how warehouse clubs have recently sought to compete with online-only retailers and omnichannel rivals.

  • As the growing penetration of e-commerce brought greater competition from players such as Amazon, warehouse clubs started to see their limited e-commerce capabilities as a significant weakness.
  • Warehouse clubs began placing a greater emphasis on e-commerce and omnichannel capabilities, which involved developing same-day and two-day grocery delivery, rolling out buy online pick up in store (BOPIS) services and opening e-commerce fulfillment centers.
  • Thanks to these efforts, e-commerce’s share of Costco’s total sales has been steadily rising and constituted 4% of net sales in the year ended September 2, 2018.
  • At Sam’s Club, e-commerce generated 4.7% of total net sales in the year ended January 31, 2019.
  • In May 2017, BJ’s appointed Rafeh Masood as its first ever chief digital officer.
  • Warehouse clubs must find the optimum balance between in-store operations and e-commerce, and getting this right could prove instrumental in supporting long-term growth for the clubs.
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Executive Summary

  • Tiffany reported EPS of $1.12, down 4.3% but beating the consensus estimate of $1.04.
  • Total revenue for the quarter declined 2.5% to $1.05 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.06 billion. On a constant currency basis, net sales declined 1% from the prior year.
  • Comps declined 4%, 3% on a constant-currency basis.
  • For fiscal 2019, the company expects global net sales growth in the low single digits and low- to mid-single-digit EPS growth. Worldwide comps are expected to be flat compared to the prior year.