Executive Summary

  • American Eagle Outfitters reported fiscal 2Q19 revenues of $1.04 billion, higher than the consensus estimate of $1.00 billion, and up 7.9% year over year. The company reported adjusted 2Q19 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, higher than the consensus estimate of $0.32 and higher than the year-ago period.
  • American Eagle Outfitters comp sales rose 2% compared to a 9% increase in the year-ago period and lower than the consensus estimate of 2.9%. Aerie’s comparable sales increased 16% compared to 27% in the year-ago period and lower than the consensus estimate of 16.8%. American Eagle comparable sales declined 1%, following a 7% increase in the year-ago period and lower than the consensus estimate of 1%.
  • For 3Q19, the company projects EPS to be $0.47 to $0.49, lower than the consensus estimate of $0.52. The company expects 3Q19 comparable sales growth in the low- to mid-single digits.

Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 8,201 store closures and 3,446 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 431 store closures and 633 store openings.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at how Costco and Aldi are taking different approaches to entering China.

In the news this week:

  • Burberry has partnered with Apple Pay to launch “R Message,” a personalized in-app chat service available to high-spending customers by invitation only.
  • Chinese low-cost retailer Miniso will add four Miniso Factory concept outlets to the 150 stores the company already operates in Mexico and expand its catalog from 10 to 14 product categories.
  • French workwear brand Danton is set to open its first independent store in Tokyo. The new store will offer a wide range of casual wear a well as workwear.

Executive Summary

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard reported fiscal 1Q20 revenue of $14.2 billion, below the consensus estimate of $15.1 billion and down 4.2% from 1Q19.
  • The company’s merchandise and service segment revenue increased 1.6% year over year, while road transportation fuel segment revenue decreased 4.8% year over year.
  • Revenue for the “other” segment, however, decreased 44.8% year over year, driven by the company’s disposal of its marine fuel business.

Executive Summary

  • Lululemon’s 2Q19 revenues grew 22.1% year over year to $833 million, beating the consensus estimate of $845.6 million. The company reported 2Q19 EPS of $0.96, up 35.2% from the year-ago period and ahead of the consensus estimate of $0.89.
  • For the second quarter, the company saw consolidated comparable sales growth of 17% on a constant-currency basis, compared to a 19% increase in the year-ago period and higher than the consensus estimate of 12.2%.
  • For the third quarter of fiscal 2019, management expects revenue to be in the range of $880-890 million versus the consensus estimate of $865.5 million; and, for EPS to be $0.90-0.92, in line with the consensus estimate of $0.90.

Executive Summary

In our biweekly Supply Chain Briefing series, we discuss how technology is transforming the various stages of the retail supply chain, including product design, demand forecasting, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, last-mile delivery and sales. We also discuss other developments that relate to the retail supply chain.

This report discusses gamification, which many companies are using to train and motivate their supply chain workforce.

  • Gamification is about integrating game mechanics to a task to increase participation and motivation.
  • Gamification can bring various benefits, including raising motivation and engagement, and improving customer experience delivery.
  • Companies such as Amazon, Brambles and Walmart have adopted gamification to train employees for supply chain operations.

Below, we illustrate the seven major components of the retail supply chain, and some of the technologies that can support processes at various stages – from product design to end consumer.

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Executive Summary

On August 27, Costco opened its first store in China. First-day traffic was so heavy the store was forced to close early due to overcrowding. The Coresight Research team was there for the opening day and made a return visit on August 29. This is what we found:

  • The store continued to be packed, with food and consumables being the most popular section for shoppers.
  • Costco has the most pricing advantage in electronics. In consumables, Costco offers lower prices in meat compared with online, but almost the same or higher prices for fruits.
  • Membership retention, consumer behavior and developments in the trade dispute will determine Costco’s success in China.
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Executive Summary

In this report, we continue our Retail-Tech Landscape report series, which spotlights innovative retail-tech companies disrupting the retail industry. This retail-tech landscape covers innovation in the supply chain, featuring start-ups in addition to a few more established companies that are disrupting the current scenario. 

  • Managing and optimizing the retail supply chain has evolved from a back-office activity to become the central nervous system, coordinating business planning, production and distribution throughout the enterprise.
  • The landscape includes companies headquartered in the US, Europe or Asia and spans 13 categories at every step of the retail value supply chain.
  • Relentless demand from global competition, steady share gains from savvy digital commerce companies and technological advances have prompted retailers to embrace software-based tools in their supply chains.
  • As competition has intensified and become global, supply chains have become global as well, dramatically increasing complexity and spreading across multiple countries, factories and currencies. Broad technological advances such as the move to cloud-based services and software have also encouraged retailers to adopt these new solutions. 
  • Supply-chain software can perform a wide variety of functions, generally focusing on getting goods from warehouse to customer. 
  • Other tasks include processing orders, handling distribution, warehouse management and replenishment. The software can also manage sourcing, collecting information and vetting and selecting suppliers as well as managing them.
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Executive Summary

In this report, we discuss recent macroeconomic indicators from the US and China:

  • US GDP increased by an annual seasonally adjusted rate of 2.0% in the second quarter of 2019, versus 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019.
  • US industrial output decreased at an annual seasonally adjusted rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019.
  • GDP in China increased 6.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2019, slowing from 6.4% in the last quarter.
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Executive Summary

We take a deep dive into US shoppers’ expectations for the 2019 holiday season.

  • Almost six in 10 holiday shoppers are concerned about tariffs causing prices to rise on holiday gifts. And the majority of shoppers will not increase spending to absorb any price hikes: They will buy fewer items, switch to cheaper retailers or buy cheaper products.
  • Holiday shoppers are cross-channel shoppers: Just over two-thirds expect to buy online and in store. Stores are the top channel for browsing, comparing and getting gift ideas.
  • Shoppers primarily turn to e-commerce to strip friction from the shopping: to avoid crowds, save effort or save time. Shoppers most often choose to buy in store for ease of browsing, to see products in person and for the enjoyment of the experience.
  • Walmart and Amazon will be the most-shopped retailers this holiday season. Amazon shopper numbers are supported by Prime members.
  • Our survey suggests Walmart and Target stand to lose the most shoppers to Amazon.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

  • Big Lots reported 2Q19 revenues of $1.25 billion, up 2.5% year over year and in line with the consensus estimate.
  • Comps increased 1.2%, on top of a 1.6% increase in the second quarter of last year.
  • The company maintained its 2019 adjusted EPS guidanceof $3.70-$3.85 and updated its comp guidance to flat to slightly positive, from low-single-digit previously.

Executive Summary

In our biweekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape — as they affect business operations and the future outlook. 

In this report, we look at Beijing’s recent announcement to further develop Shenzhen, unveiled on August 18, 2019. 

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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  What Are the Key Forces Impacting the US Beauty Market?

The US beauty market is being impacted by consumers and brands taking a more holistic approach to beauty that encompasses health and wellness. The market offers opportunities for new entrants that focus on solution-based skin care products, prevention, self-care, mental wellness and ingestibles.

Executive Summary

The Xcel Brands x Coresight Research Monthly Fashion Trend Report highlights fashion trends that are just emerging, growing quickly or hitting maturity.

The Monthly Fashion Trend Report offers critical insights on evolving trends for designers, planners, retailers, buyers and merchandisers. The trend report is a valuable decision-making tool based on deep quantitative and qualitative analysis using data from Trendalytics.

  • Xcel Brands uses quantitative and qualitative data to compile the monthly trend report and create lookbooks sourced from Trendalytics data.
  • Pretty tops with puff sleeves continue to be a top growing fashion trend. Puff sleeves dominate the runway and had the highest rate of online search growth, with an average of 5,239 searches per week, up 287% compared to last year, according to Trendalytics data.
  • Milkmaid tops, an emerging trend which incorporates a puff sleeve, open neckline, and corseted waistline, is attracting contemporary consumers with over 95% of items priced under $50. Over 60% of milkmaid tops are full price.
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Executive Summary

  • Dollar Tree reported 2Q19 revenues of $5.74 billion, up 3.9% year over year and slightly above the $5.72 consensus estimate. EPS was $0.76, down 34.1% and below the $0.83 consensus.
  • Enterprise comps increased 2.4%, beating the 1.9% consensus; Dollar Tree comps grew 2.4%, short of the 2.8% consensus; and, Family Dollar comps increased 2.4%, beating the consensus estimate of 1.2%.
  • For 2019, the company expects revenues of $23.57-23.79 billion (up 3.3-4.2%), in line with consensus of $23.72 billion, and EPS of $4.90-5.11, in line with consensus estimate of $5.11.
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