Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our US Monthly Retail Traffic and In-Store Metrics Report reviews year-over-year changes in selected store-based metrics, including sales, traffic and conversion rates.

Highlights from our August Retail Traffic report:

  • US store traffic declined 5.7% year over year in September. The conversion rate advanced 1.4 percentage points, average transaction value (ATV) declined 1.3% and the product return rate remained flat.
  • September traffic varied over the course of the four weeks: The first week (which included Labor Day) performed the best. September 23 figures were low for sales, shopper yield, ATV and transaction volume.
  • The northeast experienced the largest decline in traffic at 8.5%, and the south experienced the largest decrease in sales at 4.4%. The midwest had a marginal 0.3% increase in traffic but strong sales growth at 3.1%.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team was in Las Vegas attending and participating in the Groceryshop 2019 conference, September 15-18. On September 15, Coresight Research CEO and Founder Deborah Weinswig kicked off the event by emceeing the Groceryshop Emerging Technology Spotlight.

  • The Emerging Technology Spotlight featured 19 innovative, early-stage technology companies that have developed e-commerce and in-store solutions for grocery, food and CPG retailers.
  • Weinswig categorized the 19 participating companies into four buckets of retail disruption: Data and Insights; Next-Generation Marketing; Improved Shopping Experiences; and Operations and Supply Chain.
  • The audience voted through the Groceryshop app and site for the top five companies.

Executive Summary

On October 15, 2019, Amazon announced via a blog post that it had finished migrating its internal consumer databases from Oracle database software to Amazon Web Services (AWS).

  • The teams migrated 75 petabytes (75 x 1015 bytes) of internal data stored in nearly 7,500 Oracle databases to multiple AWS database services.
  • Migrated brands include Alexa, Amazon Prime, Amazon Prime Video, Amazon Fresh, Kindle, Amazon Music, Audible, Shopbop, Twitch and Zappos.
  • Benefits to Amazon include cost reduction, performance improvements and lower administrative overhead.
  • The move also gives AWS more control over its own data, moves its services out of the hands of a competitor and also signals AWS’ increasing competition with Oracle in the database space.

Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 8,642 store closures and 3,752 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 488 store closures and 648 store openings.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our September US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total US retail sales excluding gasoline and automobiles increased 4.4% year over year in September, versus the 4.7% rise in August.
  • Clothing specialty retailers’ sales fell 0.7% in September, following August’s 2.0% increase.
  • Department store retailers posted a sales decline of 7.3%, worsening from a 4.6% decline in August.• In September, nonstore retailers saw sales rise 15.6%, following a 13.8% rise in August.
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Executive Summary

In our biweekly Supply Chain Briefing series, we discuss how technology is transforming the various stages of the retail supply chain, including product design, demand forecasting, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, last-mile delivery and sales. We also discuss other developments that relate to the retail supply chain.

This report discusses sustainability.

  • Sustainability in the supply chain encompasses processes, logistics and technologies, and how they interact to address demands for environmental and social responsibility.
  • Consumers are increasingly viewing sustainability as an important matter that businesses should consider.
  • Sustainability is being addressed by companies across multiple sectors through sustainable sourcing and production, various technologies and the reduction of gas emissions and waste.
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Executive Summary

  • IBM reported 3Q19 revenues of $18.03 billion, down 3.9% year over year and below the $18.22 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $2.68, down 21.6% from the year-ago quarter and beating the $2.66 consensus estimate.
  • Revenues grew 6.4% year over year in the cloud and cognitive software segment, grew 1.0% in the global business services segment and declined in the global technology services, systems, global financing and other segments.
  • IBM reaffirmed its 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $12.80, adjusted downward by $1.10 on August 2 to account for the Red Hat acquisition.

Executive Summary

  • ASOS reported FY19 group sales of £2.73 billion, up 12% year over year on a constant-currency basis (up 13% as reported) and ahead of the consensus estimate of £2.71 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported diluted EPS of 29.4 pence, down 70% year over year, and below the consensus of 30.4 pence.
  • Profit before tax (PBT) declined 68% to £33.1 million, but was marginally ahead of the consensus estimate of £32.7 million.
Introduction

Analytics is the collection and analysis of data to inform strategic and operational decision-making. This capability is powering digital transformation in retail, making operations more efficient, from supply chain and store operations to customer service and engagement. Analytics is expected to play an increasingly important role in the sector as the adoption of data-intense technology progresses and requirements increase for tools to leverage larger amounts of data.’

This report—sponsored by retail commerce optimization and returns reduction company Newmine—details how analytics can be applied in the retail industry to transform operational practices, from supply chain and inventory management to customer management and personalization, pricing and promotion strategies and in-store layout management. We will outline the extent to which retailers consider the adoption of data analysis capabilities to be a priority and what factors are encouraging this.

This report also details how analytics is a key component of retailers’ digital transformation through our CORE framework for AI in retail. Finally, we will see how the adoption of data-intense emerging technologies will likely increase the importance of data analytics in retail.   

 

Retail Analytics Informs Strategic Decision-Making

In retail, information on operations, supply chains and consumer and shopper behaviors comprise the raw material for analytics. According to the focus of the analysis and the data collected, we can distinguish between three types of retail analytics:

  • Real-time analytics: Monitoring live retail operations to identify possible issues and enable timely deployment of the appropriate response.
  • Behavioral analytics: Formulating customer insight based on the interaction shoppers had with the retailer at different touchpoints, including physical and online browsing and purchasing history, as well as interaction on social media.
  • Predictive analytics: Intelligence based on data related to historic operational and sales performances and relevant external factors—such as weather conditions, economic indicators and seasonality—to enable reliable and accurate predictions of future demand and inform strategic planning.     

These different types may be used for combined applications. For example, behavioral analytics could be used in a predictive manner to anticipate future shoppers’ behavior.

 

Analytics Applications in Retail

Analytics is useful for multiple applications in retail. Some of the most significant of these are listed below.

Image source: Unsplash.com
Source: Company Reports/The Wall Street Journal/Coresight Research

 

Adoption of an Analytics Capability Is Key for Retailers

The application of analytics in retail aims to provide better understanding of consumer preferences in order to devise a personalized sales approach. This is intended to create a longer-term rapport with customers, increasing conversion rates and consumer loyalty. In addition, retail analytics can bring greater operational efficiency thanks to the increased visibility over operations.

The adoption of analytics capabilities has become crucial for retailers to maintain a competitive advantage in the current market environment and to prepare for future challenges. For example, almost 80% of retailers in Europe have already adopted advanced data analytics capabilities, according to a survey conducted in August 2019 as part of an omnichannel study by Salesforce and Coresight Research. Of these, some 45% fully implemented data analytics across their operations, while 34% had begun to implement the capability in parts of their operations. Only 6% of retailers questioned did not have plans to adopt analytics, according to the survey.

Survey conducted in August 2019 among 470 retail executives based in Europe.
Source: Salesforce/Coresight Research

 

Several factors are encouraging retailers to adopt retail analytics, including:

  • Large datasets: Data available to retailers has dramatically increased with the widespread adoption of digital technology in retail. Companies now interact with shoppers through multiple touchpoints, and these interactions leave digital footprints of the shopper’s behavior and order history that can be used to feed retail analytics capabilities. In brick-and-mortar stores, the possibility of tracking shopper behavior has been enhanced by the use of sensors and cameras, as well as mobile apps installed on consumers’ smartphones, which all generate data that can be analyzed.   
  • Advancing technology: The introduction and development of advanced technology such as AI has made it possible to generate actionable insight from the large amount of data currently available to retailers. At the same time, older technologies such as radio-frequency identification have become more affordable and reliable, which means they can be deployed on a large scale across retail operations to collect data that feeds into AI-powered analytics platforms.
  • Competitive pressure: The very competitive nature of the retail market encourages companies to adopt analytics strategies in order to achieve competitive gains. Obtaining real-time understanding of operations allows retailers to devise the best course of action to realize operational efficiency, reduce costs and increase profitability, making them more capable of meeting customer needs.
Source: Coresight Research

 

Competition is an important driver for the adoption of analytics capabilities by retailers. To remain competitive and gain a larger market share, companies must equip themselves with the instruments that enable them to compete with best-in-class companies—such as Amazon—that are leading the research and development of analytics technologies. Figure 3 shows the number of patent applications among selected leading retail-related companies in the 12-month period ending September 9, 2019.

Real-time analytics patent applications and grants by selected major retail-related companies in the 12-month period ended September 9, 2019.
Source: Grata Data

 

A Key Component of Digital Transformation

Analytics is a key component of retailers’ digital transformation as it constitutes a fundamental building block of AI, the technology that is radically changing the way retailers operate and interact with shoppers. AI takes retail analytics beyond the analysis of market conditions and consumer behavior to enable computers to formulate autonomous decision-making based on insight from data. Coresight Research’s proprietary CORE framework shows the value of AI in four critical areas of retail competitiveness:

  • Communication: AI is key to deliver personalized communication with consumers. Based on the analysis of data related to customer preference records and browsing and shopping history, retailers are able to send more targeted messaging to shoppers.
  • Optimize pricing: AI enables the accurate formulation and automation of product pricing decisions, through the analysis of a number of variables: market conditions, sales, promotions, weather and events. Through AI, retailers can identify optimal price points to encourage sales conversions.
  • Rationalize inventory: AI optimizes inventory management by monitoring real-time stock levels and informing purchase decisions— predictive analytics can anticipate the likely level of consumer demand based on variables such as external factors, seasonality and sales history.
  • Experiential retail: AI enables retailers to refine customer engagement through personalization and improve the shopping experience across multiple channels.  Using AI, retailers can bridge the gap between digital platforms and brick-and-mortar stores, creating a more consistent experience for consumers across touchpoints.
Source: Coresight Research

 

Future of Analytics in Retail: Emerging Technologies To Boost Analytics

We expect retail analytics to play an increasingly important role in the future, in conjunction with the growing adoption of data-intense digital technology by retailers, including AI, IoT and 5G.

  • AI: Efficient data analytics platforms will be required to support greater adoption of AI and machine learning in retail. Data analytics feeds AI and machine learning and enables these advanced technologies to gain the insight needed to automate decision-making based on a testing and learning cycle that is conducted autonomously by computers.    
  • IoT: The growing adoption of IoT systems in retail requires sophisticated retail analytics capabilities to be as effective as possible. The connected devices that comprise IoT systems can collect and share data about their working status with other parts of the network. In the retail sector, key applications for this level of connectivity surround inventory management, logistics, supply chains and in-store operations. The data flow is examined by analytics platforms that then formulate actions for the devices to execute.
  • 5G: Stronger data analytics capabilities will be needed to process the large amount of data that 5G connectivity facilitates. In brick-and-mortar stores, 5G offers faster data transmission rates and the possibility of processing more information. As such, it will enable greater adoption of data-rich technology—such as image recognition, computer vision and reality technology—that will detect, react and communicate with shoppers based on their behavior when browsing the store. This will result in more intense in-store shopper engagement and greater customization of the shopping experience.

 

Key Insights

Retail analytics enables companies to collect and analyze data regarding operations, supply chains and shopper behavior in order to inform strategic and operational decision-making. Three different types of analytics—real-time, behavioral and predictive—can be used to transform retail operations, including inventory and supply chain management, customer engagement, pricing and in-store layout management.

Retailers are increasingly emphasizing the adoption of analytics technologies as a priority.  For example, some 80% of retailers in Europe have already adopted advanced data analytics capabilities, according to a recent Coresight Research study. There are a number of factors that are encouraging companies to further leverage analytics: the availability of a large amount of data; the introduction of technology that requires the analysis of large datasets; and competitive pressure in the sector, with major industry players investing extensively in the research and development of analytics technologies.

Retail analytics is a key component of the sector’s digital transformation, as it constitutes the foundation of AI, the technology that enables retailers to enhance communication, adopt price-optimization strategies, rationalize inventory and provide consistent shopping experiences across channels, as laid out in Coresight Research’s CORE framework.

With the growing adoption of data-intense technology—including AI, IoT and 5G—we expect retail analytics to play an increasingly important role for retailers in the future. The implementation of these advancing technologies will require the ability to handle large datasets and continuously upgrade data analytics capabilities.

Executive Summary

In the two-plus years since its $13.7 billion acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon has gained valuable insight into consumer behavior and physical retail.

  • Amazon has used Whole Foods to connect physical and online grocery. For example, selected Whole Foods stores now offer Prime members a curbside pickup service for online orders made through Prime Now.
  • Amazon is taking a two-pronged approach to brick-and-mortar grocery retailing, with the rollout of Amazon Go stores complementing its acquisition of Whole Foods. Amazon Go’s data-rich environment can capture valuable consumer information that is not accessible to most grocery stores.
  • We think these ventures represent an acknowledgment by Amazon that it cannot win major share in grocery with a pure-play online model.
  • Amazon plans to open a new chain of grocery stores in the US, according to a 2019 Wall Street Journal report. We expect learnings from Whole Foods and Amazon Go to inform any future grocery-store formats.
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Executive Summary

As part of our Retailers’ Timelines series, we examine key events in Macy’s recent history.

  • From 2017 to 2019, Macy’s undertook meaningful steps to reinvent its business.
  • In August 2019, Macy’s began a pilot with fashion resale marketplace ThredUP in 40 Macy’s stores across the country, to boost in-store traffic.
  • Bloomingdale’s launched an online subscription rental service for women’s clothing in September 2019, priced at $149 per month.
  • Macy’s is expanding its Backstage off-price locations to an additional 50 stores, with 47 of these already completed as of August 2019 and the rest planned to be completed by the end of the year. Backstage locations are expected to grow further in line with high consumerinterest in value and unique offerings.
  • Macy’s is focusing on enhancing customer experience through technology. The company now offers new beauty touch screens at Bloomingdale’s and virtual try-ons through Marxent, a 3D product-visualization platform.
  • Macy’s is also implementing new and experiential concepts through its emerging pop-up platforms such as STORY and The Market, which rotate new products based on themes.

Click here to read our full collection of Retailers’ Timelines.

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Executive Summary

In our biweekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape—as they affect business operations and the future outlook.

In this report, we look at how brands and retailers are using video-sharing site Bilibili as part of their marketing campaigns.

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Executive Summary

In this report, we detail five online and digital retail trends that we expect to see in the US this holiday season, which include the following:

  • Around two-thirds of holiday shoppers are likely to buy gifts online and in store this year. Those expecting to buy from just one channel look to be a small minority of shoppers.
  • Coresight Research expects slightly more than 23% of all nonfood retail sales to be made online this holiday season, up 200 basis points year over year.
  • Our survey data and market-share estimates suggest that Amazon will likely continue to dominate US online holiday sales. Amazon will go into the holidays with around half of US consumers having a Prime membership.
  • Social media beats e-commerce websites as a source of research for shoppers, according to our holiday survey data.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: How Can Apparel Brands and Retailers Benefit From Launching Beauty and Personal Care Products?

Apparel brands and retailers can leverage beauty, personal care, health and wellness products to introduce new customers to a luxury brand and increase brand awareness. Additionally, they can benefit from higher average order value, encourage brand loyalty and take advantage of add-on gifting opportunities.

Executive Summary

Sales of retail goods and dining in China during the week-long National Day holidays on October 1-7, 2019 saw stronger growth than last year, injecting positive momentum in a slowing economy.

  • Overall revenue from retail and dining in China reached ¥1.5 trillion ($212.6 billion), up 8.5% year over year, according to the China’s Ministry of Commerce.
  • Retail, catering and travel are the three driving forces that lifted domestic demand during the holidays.
  • Movie theater box offices also saw robust growth, owing to movies paying tribute to China’s 70th anniversary of foundation.
  • To encourage spending, some Chinese cities extended retail hours, encouraging businesses to operate during the night (often defined as the period between 6pm and 6am).
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