Market Outlook: US Foodservice—Value Initiatives Take Center Stage Amid Waning Consumer Traffic

Published – April 2024

Each Market Outlook offers our analysts’ definitive view of their sector. This research report includes proprietary forecasts, analysis of company metrics, exclusive consumer survey data and our analysts’ consideration of factors and themes in the market.

In this Market Outlook, we explore the size and trajectory of the US food-away-from-home (FAFH, also known as foodservice) market and key factors impacting growth. We also cover the performance and outlook for online food delivery in the US, as well as the overall market’s competitive landscape, innovators and themes we are watching in 2024 and beyond.

Data in this research report include:

• US FAFH total sales and sales growth, 2019–2028E
• US online meal-delivery sales, 2019–2028E
• FAFH and total inflation, September 2022–January 2024
• Global and US revenues of major publicly traded restaurant chains in the US, FY18–FY23
• Store numbers of the top five restaurant chains (by store portfolio) in the US

Introduction

What We Think

• Productivity and Technology Will Be Potential Offsets to Wage Pressures
• Restaurants Will Exercise Caution with Further Price Increases
• Promotional Activity Will Increase, but the Environment Will Remain Rational
• In California, AB 1228 Will Indirectly Benefit Full-Service Restaurants
• Loyalty Programs Will Gather Momentum

The US Foodservice Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity

Online Meal-Delivery Market

• Market Factors
• Wage Inflation
• Staffing Challenges Have Reduced
• GLP-1 Drugs

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape
• Store Numbers and Changes
• Store Traffic

Themes We Are Watching

• Value Will Take Center Stage
• M&A
• AI Will Drive Greater Restaurant Benefits

Retail Innovators

• OpenCity
• Hyphen
• Miso Robotics

Methodology

Appendix: Ranking Retailers by Store Numbers

16-page PDF report

Chipotle, Domino’s Pizza, Dunkin’, McDonald’s, Restaurant Brands International, Shake Shack, Starbucks, Subway, Taco Bell, Wendy’s, Yum! Brands

1. US Foodservice Sales: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and YoY Growth (Right Axis; %)
2. US Online Meal-Delivery Sales: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and YoY Growth (Right Axis; %)
3. US FAFH and FAH Inflation (YoY % Change)
4. US Consumers’ Observations of Recent Menu Price Changes in Restaurants (% of Respondents)
5. US Consumers Who Have Observed Menu Price Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Dining Habits as a Result (% of Respondents)
6. US Leisure and Hospitality Sector Average Hourly Earnings Growth (YoY % Change)
7. US Limited-Service and Full-Service Hourly Earnings Growth in 2023 (YoY % Change)
8. US Food Services and Drinking Places: All Employees (Thous.) and Monthly Turnover in Accommodation and Food Services (Thous.)
9. US Major Restaurant Chains’ Revenues (USD Bil.)
10. US Major Restaurant Chains’ Global Operating Margins (%)
11. US Major Restaurant Chains’ Store Numbers
12. US Major Restaurant Chains’ Store Traffic: YoY % Change
13. US Restaurants and Fast-Food Chains/QSRs: Indexed Foot Traffic (% Change from January 2023)
14. M&A Transactions in the US Foodservice Sector: Value (Left Axis; USD Mil.) and Total Number of Deals (Right Axis)
15. Timeline of Major M&As in the US Convenience Store Industry, 2023–2024
16. US Major Restaurant Chains’ AI Initiatives
17. AI Headwinds and Tailwinds in US Restaurant Industry