Market Outlook: US Food Away from Home—A Challenging Economic Backdrop To Weigh on Growth in 2023

Published – February 2023

Each Market Outlook offers our analysts’ definitive view of their sector. This research report includes proprietary forecasts, analysis of company metrics, exclusive consumer survey data and our analysts’ consideration of factors and themes in the market.

In this Market Outlook, we explore the size and trajectory of the US food-away-from-home (FAFH, also known as foodservice) market and key factors impacting growth. We also cover the performance and outlook for online food delivery in the US, as well as the overall market’s competitive landscape, innovators and themes we are watching in 2023 and beyond.

Data in this report include/are:

• US FAFH total sales and sales growth, 2018–2027E
• US online meal-delivery sales, 2018–2027E
• FAFH and total inflation, September 2021–January 2023
• Global and US revenues of major publicly traded restaurant chains in the US, FY17–FY22
• Store numbers of the top five restaurant chains (by store portfolio) in the US
• Foot traffic trends at US restaurants and fast food/quick-service restaurants, 2022

Introduction

Market Scale and Opportunity

Online Market

Market Factors

• Inflation

Competitive Landscape

• Leading Companies
• Store Numbers and Changes

Themes We Are Watching

• QSRs Continue To Demonstrate Strong Momentum
• Ghost Kitchens

Retail Innovators

• Chowly
• Remy Robotics

What We Think

7-page PDF report

• Implications for Restaurants
• Implications for Technology Vendors

Methodology

Bloomin’ Brands, Chipotle, Domino’s Pizza, Dunkin’, McDonald’s, Restaurant Brands International, Shake Shack, Starbucks, Subway, Taco Bell, Wendy’s, Yum! Brands

1. US FAFH: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
2. US Online Meal-Delivery Sales (USD Bil.)
3. FAFH and Total Inflation (YoY % Change)
4. Major Publicly Traded Restaurant Chains in the US: Revenues (USD Bil.)
5. Top Five Restaurant Chains (by Store Portfolio) in the US: Store Numbers
6. US Restaurants and Fast Food/QSRs: Indexed Foot Traffic (% Change from January 2022)
7. Reasons Why Operators Have Opened a Ghost Kitchen (% of Respondents)