Market Navigator: US Retail—A Fracturing Market Headed Toward $6 Trillion

Published – July 2026

Discover where US retail is heading—and which companies, channels and consumer trends will define the next phase of growth in this in-depth, data-driven report.

Read this report to find answers to these and other key questions:

• How are shifting consumer spending patterns creating winners and losers across US retail, and what should retailers do about it?
• How should retailers deploy tariff refund capital to drive competitive advantage?
• Which retailers have captured the most retail growth, and what do their strategies have in common?
• How is quick commerce evolving from a convenience premium to a baseline consumer expectation?
• How is the K-shaped consumer economy reshaping demand, and what does this mean for retail strategy?

Data in this report include: Retail market and sector sizes and forecasts; retailer revenue and market share trends; analysis of absolute revenue growth by retailer, 2019–2025; store count and total sales area by retailer; sales per store and sales densities; monthly store traffic trends; leading online retailers’ e-commerce revenues and GMV; consumer survey data on where Americans shop for food and nonfood products; category-level online versus in-store purchase penetration; and consumer perceptions of physical stores versus e-commerce across key shopping factors.

Introduction

What We Think

• Shifting Spending and Recommendations for Retailers
• The State of Retail: Resilience and Near-Term Support
• The Coresight Research View on the US Consumer Economy (June 2026)

Themes We Are Watching

• Alternative Channels Are Shifting Retail Spending
• These 12 Companies Have Captured Almost Half of Retail’s Growth
• Quick Commerce Is Moving from Convenience to Expectation
• Agentic Commerce Represents a New Channel
• Store-Level Execution Is Driving Performance More Than Fragmented Initiatives Have
• Retailers Must Navigate a Polarization Between Frictionless and Experiential Shopping

The Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity: US Retail Heading Toward $6 Trillion
• Online: Heading Toward One-Quarter of Retail Sales
• In-Store Shopper Visits by Sector

Market Factors

• Macroeconomic Expectations: 2026 Growth Sees Supporting Factors
• AI and Assets: The Drivers of US Economic Growth
• Inflation Has Accelerated in 2026
• Middle East Conflict Is Easing, Likely Providing Relief to Inflationary Pressures
• Tax Refunds Are Providing a Near-Term Boost to Consumer Spending
• Inbound Tourism Decline Is a Modest but Unevenly Distributed Headwind
• Retail Is Losing Ground to Services—and the Gap Is Widening
• GLP-1 Usage Drives Changed Shopper Behaviors
• The Tariff-Refund Opportunity for Retailers
• Demographic Trends Support Structural Inflation

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape: Retailers
• America’s 50 Biggest Retailers
• Market Share: Now Two Retailers Capture >10% of Retail Sales
• Five Top Retailers: Summary Profiles
• Operating Margins
• Store Metrics
• Retailers’ Store Traffic
• America’s Biggest Online Retailers

The Consumer

• Where America Shops
• What Consumers Buy Offline vs. Online
• Stores vs. E-Commerce

Notes and Methodology

Ace Hardware, Albertsons Companies, Aldi, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Amazon, American Eagle Outfitters, Apple, Best Buy, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Burlington Stores, ByteDance/TikTok Shop, Costco Wholesale, CVS Health, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, eBay, Etsy, Family Dollar, Gap, Giant Eagle, H-E-B, The Home Depot, Hy-Vee, Kohl’s, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize, The Kroger Co., Levi Strauss & Co., Lowe’s Companies, Lululemon Athletica, Macy’s, Meijer, Menards, Nordstrom, PDD Holdings/Temu, Publix Super Markets, Ross Stores, Sephora, Shein, Target, The TJX Companies, Tractor Supply Co., Ulta Beauty, Wakefern Food Corp., Walgreen Co., Walmart, Wayfair and more.

• Shifting Consumer Spending
• Selected Retailers: Analysis of Absolute Change in Revenues: 2025 vs. 2019 (USD Bil.)
• A Tiered Approach to Agentic Commerce
• The Attention Economy’s Polarized Retail Impacts
• Total US Retail Sales (ex. Autos and Gasoline): Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and YoY % Change (Right Axis)
• Total Yearly US Retail Sales Growth, Split Between Inflation and Real Growth, with Total Nominal Growth Values Shown (%)
• Selected Retail Categories and Sectors: Market Sizes (USD Bil.)
• US Retail Sales Breakdown by Sector (USD Bil. and YoY % Change)
• US Total Retail Sales ex. Automobiles and Gasoline (USD Bil.) and YoY % Change: Online/Offline Split
• Selected Retail Categories and Sectors: Online Market Sizes (USD Bil. and YoY % Change)
• US Online Retail Sales by Sector (USD Bil. And YoY % Change)
• Sector-Level Shopper Visits to Stores: YoY % Change, March 2025–April 2026
• US Real GDP YoY Growth: Actual and Projected (%)
• Key US Macroeconomic Projections
• Contributions to Percentage Change in Real GDP: Selected Components (PPT, Annualized Rate)
• US Consumer Financial and Economic Sentiment (Left Axis)* vs. Gasoline Prices (Right Axis)
• US Inflation for Selected Product Categories, Retail Overall (Est.) and Total CPI: Annual Average YoY % Change
• US Inflation for Selected Product Categories, Retail Overall (Coresight Est.) and Total CPI: YoY % Change by Month, January–May 2026
• International Visitors to the US: YoY % Change, Selected Origin Countries
• US Consumer Spending on Major Discretionary Categories: Split Between Retail Goods and Services (% of Total)
• Key Strategies for Brands and Retailers To Adapt to GLP-1 Consumer Behavior Trends
• US: Top 50 Retailers and Marketplaces by US Revenues/GMV (USD Bil.)
• US: Major Retailers’ Share of Total Retail Sales (%)
• Major US Retailers: Key Facts
• US Major Retailers’ EBIT Margins (%)
• Major Retailers’ US Store Numbers
• US Major Retailers’ Total Sales Area (Sq. Ft. Mil.)
• US Major Retailers’ Yearly Sales per Store (USD Mil.)
• US Major Retailers’ Estimated Yearly Sales per Gross Sq. Ft.* (USD)
• US Major Retailers’ Store Visits: YoY % Change, by Month
• Leading Online Retailers’ E-Commerce Revenues/GMV (USD Bil.)
• US Consumers: Retailers They Have Bought Food Products from in the Two Weeks Prior To Each Weekly Survey, 2026 (% of Respondents)
• US Consumers: Retailers They Have Bought Nonfood Products from in the Two Weeks Prior To Each Weekly Survey, 2026 (% of Respondents)
• US Consumers: The Proportion That Had Bought Specified Categories In-Store and Online in the Two Weeks Prior To Each Weekly Survey (% of Respondents) and Online as a Share of Total Purchase Occasions
• US Consumer Survey: Perceptions of Whether Stores or Online Are Better for Certain Factors (% of Respondents)