Market Navigator: US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores—Growth Slowdown To Persist Amid Sluggish Discretionary Spending

Published – January 2024

Each Market Navigator report offers an in-depth, data-rich view of a retail, consumer or technology sector and is packed with data on sectors, segments, companies and consumers. Our analysts discuss at greater length the sector themes they are observing and the insights they are forming on their markets. We intend these definitive guides to serve as points of reference to those in the retail ecosystem, guiding readers’ strategic decision-making and assisting them in tapping opportunities and navigating disruption in retail and adjacent industries. 

In this Market Navigator, Coresight Research explores the US mass merchandiser, warehouse club and discount store market. 

Gain insights into emerging ideas and opportunities, understand the growth trajectory of the market, and explore the competitive landscape. Discover key insights about market factors, consumer behavior and preferences (based on proprietary survey findings), the US macro context and more. 

We also discuss the themes we are watching in the market, aligning with our RESET framework. Key topics covered in this report include sustainability, generative AI, retail 

Data in this research report include: 

• Market size and year-over-year growth rates, 2018–2027E 
• Sales breakdowns by segment, 2017–2022 
• Online sales and year-over-year growth rates, 2018–2027E 
• US CPI and PPI, plus proprietary survey data on how US consumers are changing their shopping habits in response to inflation 
• US annual tax refunds and US SNAP recipients 
• Revenues, market share breakdown, operating margins, and store portfolios and traffic of leading companies in the market 
• Proprietary survey data on where US consumers are shopping and what they are buying 

Introduction 

What We Think 

• Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores To Capitalize on Consumer Frugality 
• Competition from Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Variety Stores To Drive Broader Retail Consolidation 
• Increased Focus on Grocery To Drive Cross-Category Sales 

• Growing Competition from Value-Led E-Commerce Players To Challenge Mass Retailers’ Dominance 
• Private Label and Retail Media To Offer Margin-Boosting Opportunities 
• Sustainability To Remain Crucial for Retailers To Attract Shoppers 

Blue-Sky Thinking 

• The Shifting Landscape of Warehouse Clubs 
• Generative AI 
• Web3 Technologies 

The US Mass Merchandise, Warehouse Club and Discount Store Sector 

• Market Scale and Opportunity 
• Segment Breakdown 
• Online Market 
• Market Factors 

The Companies 

• Competitive Landscape 
• Operating Margins 
• Store Numbers and Changes 
• Store Traffic 
• Benchmarking to BEST 

Survey Analysis: Where Consumers Are Shopping and What They Are Buying 

Themes We Are Watching 

• Responsive 
• Engaging 
• Socially Responsible 
• Expansive 
• Tech-Enabled 

Macro Context 

• Unemployment and Wages 
• Real Disposable Income Per Capita 
• Savings Rate 
• Interest Rates and the Housing Market 
• Gasoline Prices 
• Consumer Spending 
• Retail Innovators 

Notes and Methodology 

Appendix 

• Ranking Retailers by Store Numbers 
• Company Profiles 
• About the Coresight Research BEST Framework 
• About the Coresight Research RESET Frameworkedia, private label and Web3. 

55-page PDF report

Companies mentioned in this report include: Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ), Costco (NASDAQ: COST), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR), Five Below (NYSE: FIVE), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ: OLLI), Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) 

Note: Figure #37 from Appendix 

1. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and YoY Change (Right Axis; %) 
2. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Sales Breakdown by Segment (% of Total Sales) 
3. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Global Online Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and YoY Change (Right Axis; %) 
4. US: YoY Changes in CPI and PPI (%) 
5. US Consumers Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Grocery as a Result (% of Respondents) 
6. US Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Nongrocery as a Result (% of Respondents) 
7. Total US Annual Tax Refunds (USD Bil.) 
8. US SNAP Recipients (Mil.) 
9. US: Single-Person Households and Population Aged 65+ (Mil.) 
10. US Major Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Major Retailers’ Revenues (USD Bil.) 
11. US Major Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Share of Total US Retail Sales (%) 
12. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Major Retailers’ Operating Margins (%) 
13. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Key Comparable Metrics of Selected Retailers 
14. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Major Retailers’ Store Numbers 
15. US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores: Major Retailers’ Store Traffic (YoY % Change) 
16. Mass Merchandisers and Warehouse Clubs That US Consumers Have Purchased from in the Three Months Ended November 20, 2023 (% of Respondents) 
17. Mass Merchandisers and Warehouse Clubs That US Consumers Have Purchased from in the Past Three Months: April–November 2023 (% of Respondents) 
18. Product Categories Purchased by US Consumers at Mass Merchandisers and Warehouse Clubs in the Three Months Ended November 20, 2023 (% of Respondents) 
19. Respondents Who Purchased from Mass Merchandisers and Warehouse Clubs: Total Spending in the Prior Three Months (% of Respondents) 
20. US Dollar-Store Shoppers: Dollar Stores from Which They Have Shopped In the Three Months Ended November 14, 2023 (% of Respondents) 
21. US Dollar Stores That US Dollar-Store Shoppers Have Purchased from in the Past Three Months: March–November 2023 (% of Respondents) 
22. US Dollar-Store Shoppers: Product Categories from Which They Have Shopped in The Three Months Ended November 14, 2023 (% of Respondents) 
23. US Dollar-Store Shoppers: Total Spending in the Three Months Ended November 14, 2023 (% of Respondents) 
24. US Discount Variety Retailers and Delivery Partnerships 
25. US Livestream Viewers Who Watched Shoppable Livestreams Featuring Selected Product Categories on Retailers’ Websites/Apps in the Past Three Months: Retailers’ Websites/Apps They Used (% of Respondents) 
26. pOpshelf and Dollar General: Store Traffic Growth (YoY % Change) 
27. Selected Private-Label Brands Among US Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Stores 
28. Kirkland Signature Sales (USD Bil.) 
29. US CPG Private-Label and Name Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales Value Growth (YoY % Change) 
30. US Retail Media Market (USD Bil.) 
31. US Unemployment Rate (Left Axis; %) and US Average Hourly Wages (Right Axis; %) 
32. US Annualized Real Disposable Income Per Capita (Left Axis; USD) and YoY Change (Right Axis; %) 
33. Personal Saving Rate (Left Axis; %) and YoY Change (Right Axis; PPTs) 
34. New Housing Starts (Left Axis) and Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Right Axis) 
35. US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (USD per Gallon; Left Axis)* and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Right Axis) 
36. US Real and Nominal Consumer Spending Growth (YoY % Change) 
37. US Major Mass Merchandisers, Warehouse Clubs and Discount Store Banners, Ranked by US Store Numbers